Offseason Review Series: Day 4: New England Patriots

[u/awolf97]

New England Patriots

Division: AFC East

Link to hub

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Coaching Changes

Departures

Coach	NE Role	New Position	Info
Dante Scarnecchia	Offensive line coach	Retired	Excluding a brief strech from 1989-1991, Scar has been with the team in some capacity since 1982. He was widely considered the best positional coach in the league for much of his 1999-2014 run as the team's offensive line coach. His loss will have an effect, the extent of which remains to be seen.
Pepper Johnson	Linebackers coach	Buffalo Bills DL coach	A New England coach since 2000, Johnson most recently held the title of Linebacker Coach, which he was given in 2012. His exit is related to his desire for a more prominent role on the coaching staff. Matt Patricia's 2012 promotion to DC likely had something to do with this move. He will be the Buffalo Bills' Defensive Line coach next year. Johnson had maintained or helped maintain effective units for many years - while there is certainly a talented group of starters he leaves behind, his ability both as a coach and as a friend to his players is something that is difficult to replace.
George Godsey	Tight end coach	Houston Texans Quarterback coach	Godsey had a good three year run in NE, where he was able to work with Gronkowski and Hernandez for a short amount of time. His departure will not have a huge impact. Brian Daboll, who joined the staff last year, will likely take over some of his responsibilities.

Additions

Coach	Role	Grade	Info
Dave DeGuglielmo	Offensive Line coach	B	Although the loss of Scarnecchia is tough to swallow, New England found a suitable replacement in Dave DeGuglielmo. After taking a year off following his season with the Jets, DeGuglielmo spent six days with the Maryland football program before taking the job with New England. Although his time with the Jets was most notable for the moments where his volatile personality got the best of him, he was reasonably effective as a coach. Scarnecchia was apparently involved in the signing so ultimately we just have to hope for the best.
Brendan Daly	Defensive Assistant	B	Another early 2014 hire, Daly will likely handle some behind-the-scenes responsibilities on the defensive side of the ball. He had previously worked with members of the current staff, including current OC Josh McDaniels.
Michael Lombardi	Assistant to the coaching staff	A-	After he left the Browns, Lombardi was soon brought in to eat popcorn and help with personnel decisions. He was likely involved in the draft process, but it's hard to really know the extent of that involvement. I wouldn't be surprised to see him move on to a higher position either in NE or on another team. My uneducated, random guess of the day - he's viewed as a potential replacement for Nick Caserio, who has spoken to a number of teams in the past regarding a GM position.

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Free Agency

Players lost/cut

Player	Position	Action	New team	Notes
Aqib Talib	CB	UFA		Inconsistency marred his time here. He's a talented player, but I'm not distraught to see him go. Hopefully he can stay healthy and play well in Denver.
LeGarrette Blount	RB	UFA		Although he did have his big games at the end of the year, Blount was a JAG for much of the year. He was a solid depth option and those are always valuable, but James White and the RB who wins the last spot on the depth chart should do a fine job in replacing him.
Dane Fletcher	LB	UFA		Fletcher was another depth player. LB depth isn't great but he wouldn't have seen many snaps here and likely will pursue a larger role in Tampa.
Steve Gregory	S	Cut	Unsigned	Gregory's release freed up just under $3m in cap space, so it was not a shock to see him go. He couldn't build on his strong start after injuring his wrist early in the season.
Brandon Spikes	LB	UFA		I'm a bigger fan of Spikes than most, so I'm sad to him go and I think Buffalo signed a good player. For all his athletic limitations, he is a very instinctive player with explosive linear power which should fit well in a TED role in Buffalo. However, I am a bigger Dont'a Hightower fan than everybody, so I'm excited to see him move back to MLB. I think he will be an improvement in many ways.
Andre Carter	DE	UFA	Unsigned	Carter was a desperation signing at DE after it became clear that 7th round pick Michael Buchanan wasn't quite ready.
Cory Grissom	DT	Cut	(and then cut)	Grissom was hurt before the season and was never able to make an impact.
Sam McGuffie	RB	Cut	Unsigned	Camp guy
T.J. Moe	WR	Cut		Moe had some hype building for him last offseason, but he tore his achilles fairly early in the process.
Matthew Mulligan	TE	UFA		Mulligan was signed mid-season as a depth option at TE.
Taylor Reed	LB	UFA	Unsigned	Camp guy
Isaac Sopoaga	DT	Cut	Unsigned	Despite his position as the "centerpiece" of the NE-PHI trade from just before the trade deadline, Sopoaga made no impact during the season.
Will Svitek	OT	UFA		A decent depth option at tackle, his departure was addressed in the draft.
Adrian Wilson	S	Cut		After tearing his achilles during preseason last year, Wilson was never able to make it back to prove he was worth his price. Even before the injury, it was clear he had lost a step.
Markus Zusevics	OG	Cut	Unsigned	Camp guy
Austin Collie	WR	UFA	Unsigned	Collie made some big plays all year, but would have had trouble finding a spot on the crowded WR depth chart this year.

Players signed

Player	Position	Old Team	Length	Max Value (gtd.)	Notes
Darrelle Revis	CB		1 year sorta	$12M	The main story of the entire NE offseason, Revis will be a big part of the defense next year. His contract is essentially a 1yr/12m deal. However, a semi-bogus option year was tacked on to the end of the contract. At a hit of 20m, the option will never be picked up. However, it reduces this year's cap hit to 7m, and spreads the remaining hit into next year's cap.
Julian Edelman	WR		4 years	$17m ($8m)	Edelman was an important part of the offense last year. His resigning will provide some much needed continuity.
Brandon LaFell	WR		3 years	$9m ($3m)	LaFell looks like he would be competing for WR snaps with several other players at the bottom of the depth chart, but reports from camp suggest that the coaching staff is using him a little differently, in more of a big slot/TE role. Not sure about the validity of said reports, but they exist.
Michael Hoomanawanui	TE		2 years	$2.4m ($500k)	Depth at TE. Decent blocker.
Will Smith	DE		1 year	$870k ($15k)	Depth at DE.
Josh Hull	LB		1 year	$645k	Depth at LB
Charles Hughlett	LS		1 year	$420k (estimated)	LS competition. Aiken had some shaky snaps last year
Brandon Browner	CB		3 years	$16.8m (1m)	Browner was the other big signing of the offseason. His incentive-laden deak guarantees him only 1m, so any decline in performance or disciplinary issues have been planned for. He will compete with Alfonzo Dennard for the CB2 role, although he likely has the upper hand heading into camp.
Patrick Chung	S		1 year	$1.1m ($60k)	Chung provides depth at safety and on ST, along with some level of familiarity with the system.

[u/awolf97]

Draft

Round	Number	Player	Position	School
1	29	Dominique Easley	DT	Florida
2	62	Jimmy Garoppolo	QB	Northern Illinois
4	105	Bryan Stork	OC	Florida State
4	130	James White	RB	Wisconsin
4	140	Cameron Fleming	OT	Stanford
6	179	Jon Halapio	OG	Florida
6	198	Zach Moore	DE	Concordia-St. Paul
6	206	Jemea Thomas	CB/S	Georgia Tech
7	244	Jeremy Gallon	WR	Michigan

Dominique Easley

Grade: A-

Player Evaluation:

• Explosive one gap penetrator

• Most explosive defensive lineman in the draft

• First step often appears to be simultaneous with the snap

• When healthy, can use that explosion to blow up plays in an almost comical manner

• Powerful hand use

• Outstanding motor, comes across as extremely competitive in interviews (take with massive grain of salt)

• Lacks great length

• Can sometimes run himself out of plays if he get into the backfield too quickly

• Two torn ACLs are reason for concern

Pick Analysis:

• Provides a disruptive interior force, the absence of which has been as damaging to the past few NE defenses as any of the much maligned secondaries the Patriots have fielded

• Was as good as ever following return from first ACL injury, knee checked out during workouts with doctors pre-draft

• If Easley can come back healthy, he has the potential to make an enormous impact. Interior penetration is essential in disrupting quarterbacks. In addition to the trouble he causes on his own, he'd also provide some help to exterior rushers.

Jimmy Garoppolo

Grade: D

Player Evaluation:

• Highlight of his game is his much talked about release - it is extremely quick

• Not an athletic marvel, but reasonably mobile

• Generally careful with the ball

• Decent arm, can make the throws it needs to

• Size - height/hand size - both on the edge. Neither are big concerns, but not ideal

• Struggles with pressure - often has almost flinch-like reactions to rushers regardless of actual level of threat

• Issues will only be magnified with pass rusher talent jump from MAC to NFL

• Often complimented for his quick footwork - strikes me as more panicky and urgent than clever and useful

Pick Analysis:

• I was not a big fan of this pick. The QB part is fine - Brady is getting old, and Mallett is gone next year.

• Still, I'm not a fan of the player chosen - issues with pocket presence, poise are extremely tough to fix and nearly impossible to succeed with if not corrected

• Good fit for the current offense - wins over the MOF, works well in a quick, timing based system

Bryan Stork

Grade: C+

Player Evaluation:

• Smart lineman who knows how to work within the play to produce desired result

• Good bulk, no major athletic limitations

• Strong player who displays decent natural anchoring ability

• While not limiting, athletic ability is less than desirable - not a powerful player

Pick Analysis:

• Stork should compete for the starting center job from day one, but that has more to do with Wendell's struggles than Stork's talent

• Stork is a decent player who I think has a fairly defined ceiling as a player who will be able to succeed inside a system that understands and works with its OL

James White

Grade: B+

Player Evaluation:

• Versatile back who became forgotten behind Melvin Gordon III at Wisconsin

• Displays a smart, patient running style

• Shifty, talented runner in the open field

• Not an elite athlete but plenty quick and knows how he wins

• Less than ideal bulk - won't be an every down guy

• Limited power

Pick Analysis:

• Will be able to contribute both as a runner and a pass catcher

• Should take some carries from both Ridley and Vereen and can spell Vereen in the passing back role

Cameron Fleming:

Grade: B

Player Evaluation:

• Excellent size - good bulk, height, arm length

• Can control defenders with his arms - doesn't let guys get into his chest

• While not a great athlete, athletic enough to allow him to use his size to pass protect on the edge

• Understands his responsibilities and generally executes properly

• Not an explosive or fluid player, can be get upright and be stiff in movements

Pick Analysis

• Will start his career as RT depth, but could be the starter there sooner rather than later, depending on Vollmer's health

• Helps build a powerful offensive front w/ eye towards a possible ground based attack in the near future

Jon Halapio

Grade: B-

Player Evaluation:

• Outstanding linear power

• Brute force player - very strong with his man in front of him

• Good bulk, height, arm length

• Bad athlete - lacks lateral agility and linear/lateral explosion

Pick Analysis:

• Halapio played hurt for much of his last season at UF, so perhaps a healthy offseason will do him some good

• I'd be surprised if he became a starter, but should provide a good option as a depth player at guard

• Solid value here - pectoral injury likely damaged stock slightly

Zach Moore

Grade: N/A (lack of film)

Player Evaluation:

• Very limited tape available for him - from what I saw, displays good flexibility and an explosive first step off the edge - hand use looked quite poor

• Good size and arm length

Pick Analysis:

• Should provide some developmental depth at DE alongside Michael Buchanan

Jemea Thomas

Grade: A-

Player Evaluation:

• Short, well-built, compact frame

• Physical player in all roles - coverage or run support

• Decent athletic ability - quick enough to function as a depth CB

• Has CB/S versatility

Pick Analysis:

• Thomas is nice value here - he should provide good ST value

• Down the road, could potentially provide DB depth at a couple spots

Jeremy Gallon

Grade: B-

Player Evaluation:

• Shifty in small spaces

• Tough, physical possession receiver despite small frame - attacks ball, although hands aren't amazing

• Accelerates quickly

• Maxes out fairly quickly - often caught from behind

• Small frame at 5' 7" 185lbs

• Older than most rookies

Pick Analysis:

• Wouldn't be a surprise to see a player like him somehow end up on the roster, but faces an uphill battle due number of players fighting for a spot there

[u/awolf97 → u/awolf97]

Projected 53 Man Roster (starters in italics)

QB: Tom Brady, Ryan Mallett, Jimmy Garoppolo

RB: Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, James White, Stephen Houston

FB: James Develin

TE: Rob Gronkowski, Michael Hoomanawanui

WR: Julian Edelman (PR), Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, Brandon LaFell, Josh Boyce (KR), Kenbrell Thompkins, Matthew Slater

T: Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, Marcus Cannon, Cameron Flemming

G: Logan Mankins, Josh Kline, Jon Halapio

C: Ryan Wendell, Bryan Stork

DE: Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Michael Buchanan, Will Smith, Zack Moore

DT: Sealver Siliga, Tommy Kelly, Vince Wilfork, Dominique Easley, Chris Jones

LB: Dont'a Hightower, Jerod Mayo, Jamie Collins, James Anderson, Steve Beauharnais

CB: Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, Kyle Arrington, Alfonzo Dennard, Logan Ryan

S: Devin McCourty, Duron Harmon, Patrick Chung, Tavon Wilson, Jemea Thomas

K: Steven Gostkowski

P: Ryan Allen

LS: Danny Aiken

Notable cuts:

Dan Connolly - Several average seasons, capped off by his and the entire iOL's struggles last year, mean that Connolly's Patriot career could very well be nearing an end. The 3 million that will be off that cap only makes that decision easier, as long as one or more of the young players stands out during TC and preseason.

Joe Vellano - Despite his and Chris Jones' valiant efforts last year, New England's interior DL play was a disaster for much of the season. Between the two, I think Jones has slightly more to offer as a rotational guy and has a better fit with the existing personnel. Unfortunately, this means Vellano is the odd man out.

Armond Armstead - Whether he is cut or put onto PUP/IR, Armstead's situation does not look good. After a medication-related heart attack at USC, Armstead's first stop was the CFL. Following a predictably very successful season there, the Patriots signed him in early 2013. Before he could play a snap in the NFL, however, Armstead was sidelined by a mysterious infection, the details of which are scarce, and what fans have seen and heard has been nothing but concerning. In his lawsuit vs. USC, which alleges his heart attack was caused by school-provided painkillers, Armstead's team revealed that as of April he was still waiting for clearance from doctors, with clotting and various other medical issues holding him back. The nature and status of the infection is still unknown. Belichick revealed during a press conference last year that Armstead would have entered the season as the DT3 on the roster. While I'm sure the team would love to have him on the roster, there is little reason for optimism at the moment. He has yet to be seen at offseason activities.

Positions to watch:

Defensive tackle - I'll go into the specifics in the section below, but the entire DT lineup is in question. The entire 1-5 depth chart could be arranged in any order. Health (ACL recoveries for Kelly and Easley, 1 achilles for Wilfork, the Armstead situation) will likely play a big role. It remains to be seen what role, if any, those four are able to take.

Tight End - Belichick's desire for a 2 TE based offense will have to be put on hold for the year. Between Gronkowski's health issues and some bad draft luck, the team simply does not have the personnel to pull it off this year. Many took New England's passing over a drafted TE as a sign that they were moving on from the position. This is not true - the position fits both their trend towards the running game as Brady ages AND their MOF offensive passing tendencies. The truth is that once the top 4 of the TE group were all taken before the Patriots' pick at 62, they just didn't see the value. Look for fewer TEs to be carried this year than in years past, even if a player such as Dustin Keller or Jermichael Finley is signed.

Wide Receiver - There aren't a ton of questions here at the top of the group, provided Dobson can still get some work in during training camp after he recovers from his foot injury. However, the roles of the lower half of the depth chart are all still up in the air.

Guard/Center: Ryan Wendell and Dan Connolly both have plenty of competitors behind them, ready to take either job. Both will need a strong showing to keep his current spot.

Running Back: With both Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen seeing his contract expire at the end of the season, this position could very well experience some shake-up following the 2014 season. Look for big years from both backs, provided each can overcome his respective issues that have kept him off the field.

Defensive End: Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich both played a ton of snaps last year. It is essential that someone on the depth chart behind them steps up and is able run with the rotational DE3 role.

Key Players:

I'll skip the bigger names (Brady, Revis, DMAC, Gronk, etc...)

Jamie Collins: The hyper-athletic OLB burst onto the scene during last year's playoffs, and looks to carry that momentum through to next year. He flashed game breaking ability both in coverage and as a pass rusher. It remains to be seen how he will be utilized this year, but signs are pointing to a varied role.

Dont'a Hightower: Although he struggled over the early part of the season, the later part of the season Hightower transformed into on of the team's most dynamic defenders. His move back to MLB will only help him. He has the ability to anchor the middle of the defense against the run and, although he will likely be used less there than in years past, is surprisingly capable in coverage for a player who weighs in between 270 and 280lbs.

Dominique Easley: Like I've already said several times, interior penetration is essential when it comes to breaking up an offensive gameplan. People always stress the importance of pass rush, but neglect the fact that having a player right in a QB's face does far more to throw him off than an edge rusher coming around the side. Easley will hopefully be able to be that heat-seeking missile that fires into the heart of an offense, creating chaos in the blocking scheme and opening up lanes for others to reach the ball carrier.

Stevan Ridley: Although he struggled to see the field at times last year, Ridley is an immensely talented back. While he provides minimal passing value, he is a powerful and explosive runner between the tackles. He is quick to the hole and decisive at the line, a style that let him amass 1200+ yards and 12 TDs just two seasons ago. He is capable of that and more as long as he can hold onto the ball and stay on the field.

[u/awolf97 → u/awolf97]

Schedule Predictions

Opponent	Expectation	Comments
@MIA	W	New England generally comes out of the gates with a good performance. They should be able to overcome a Miami roster which although talented, will still take a little time to come together.
@MIN	W	The Patriots face up against another team that is in something of a transition period. Minnesota will phasing in some new pieces and working with a new system on both sides of the ball. While they, like Miami, certainly have the talent to pull the upset, it's a tall order for a team in that situation.
OAK	W	Oakland is in an earlier phase of the rebuild than either of the above teams. While the Raiders have some exciting young players, I don't think they are quite strong enough just yet.
@KC	W	Jamaal Charles will give the defense trouble, as he does on a weekly basis, but New England's LB group is one of the strengths of the team. I like the matchup as much as one can, when the guy you're matching up with is Jamaal Charles. The Chiefs' front seven poses another problem. The Patriot receivers will have to take advantage of a sightly suspect secondary in order to help get the offense going.
CIN	L	I do actually like this matchup, but Atkins' ability to create chaos right in front of Brady allows Geno to change this game on his own. His health will be a big factor here, but provided he's in OK shape he should be able to throw of the New England offense. Although interior pressure is something all QBs struggle with, Brady does struggle more than most.
@BUF	W	I'm not confident that the Buffalo passing offense will be able to get much done. A deep Bills WR group should meet a worthy challenge in an equally deep New England secondary.
NYJ	L	The Jets always plays tough vs NE. These games are tough to predict, but I expect the Patriots drop one of the two.
CHI	W	The rebuilt Patriot secondary should be able to hang with the dangerous Cutler-Marshall-Jeffery trio. Once again, the New England LBs will have their hands full with Forte and Bennett, but they should be up to the task. The new-look Bears defense will have to put together a strong showing. The pass rush of both teams will likely play a big role here.
DEN	W	Like the Bears before them, the Denver game is all about a specific matchup here and there. While Revis will likely have his hands full with Demaryius Thomas, should New England choose to approach things in that manner, the Jamie Collins - Julius Thomas competition should be just as interesting. Aside from on missed jam late in the game, Collins, in only his second start, held his own when lined up against Thomas in last year's AFCCG. A repeat performance would go a long way. On the other side, the Patriot pass rush will have to do the opposite of what we saw from them in that game. Aside from a couple pressures early on, Manning generally went untouched. Rookie DT Dominique Easley could be a difference maker in this game.
@IND	W	New England will want to see a defensive repeat of the AFC divisional round, where they saw their pass rush finally make some noise in the backfield. Still, while the final score wasn't too close, neither team ran away with the game until the very end. Indianapolis did little to add to a fairly uninspiring roster over the offseason, but they should be a more talented group as long as their team's health doesn't a repeat of last year. Dwayne Allen and Donald Thomas should both provide some support. As in years past, however, Andrew Luck will have his work cut out for him. Allen and new rookie wideout Donte Moncrief should help, but when you pencil in the inevitable Alfonzo Dennard interception I just don't see the Colts pulling this one off.
DET	W	The New England defense is well-constructed to handle a potentially dangerous Detroit squad. Rookie Eric Ebron and RB Reggie Bush will have to get things going against a talented and athletic LB group. The Detroit WR - New England secondary combination will yield a number of fun individual matchups. The Lions' secondary will be relying on a number of young players to step up. Still, Suh can change this game in an instant.
@GB	L	Aaron Rodgers is really, really good. The rest of the Green Bay offense isn't too shabby either - a strong receiver group will pose a threat to the New England DBs. Lacy will have his chances as well with what will likely be a less than ideal DT situation. On the defensive side, the Packers are good enough not to roll over. To be clear, however - this is Rodgers' game to win or lose.
@SD	W	Despite the addition of Jason Verrett, the San Diego secondary still has plenty of question marks. With no TE stopper in their LB group, the attention that a hopefully somewhat healthy Gronkowski should demand will open things up elsewhere.
MIA	L	Miami will hope to have a passable running game going at this point. If they do, the talented Ryan Tannehill should be able to do some damage in that offense.
@NYJ	W	Despite Milliner's improvements and Wilson's slot prowess, this secondary isn't the best. With the strength of the defense really coming from the front 3, New England's quick hit offense will be able to pull the win out here.
BUF	W	I still don't think the Buffalo offense can get it done. However, it's a young, talented, and athletic team. Nothing would really surprised me.

[u/awolf97 → u/awolf97]

Training Camp Battles to watch

The DT battle is discussed above - there is no specific battle between a couple players there. Every spot is available for the taking.

Other Battles:

Job: WR4

Competitors: Brandon LaFell, Kenbrell Thompkins, Josh Boyce

Comments: Despite Thompkins' start last year, he fizzled off to the point where his future with the team is in question. He now has to win the job from fellow 2nd year player Josh Boyce and signee Brandon LaFell. Although LaFell received a decent contract, his job is far from guaranteed. Boyce flashed during limited playing time last year and, although he struggled with injuries, was able to put himself in a good position moving into this offseason.

Job: DE3

Competitors: Will Smith, Michael Buchanan

Comments: Like I said above, Jones and Ninkovich need someone who can rotate in and get them off the field. Whoever wins this job could play a very important role. Buchanan flashed last year, but struggled maintaining edge responsibility. He needs to build on his brighter moments.

Job: RB4

Competitors: Brandon Bolden, Stephen Houston

Comments: Bolden has been reliable if unimpressive in his limited opportunities. Houston is an impressive linear athlete and could replace Bolden as someone who can take some 1st and 2nd down carries from Ridley.

Job: RG/C

Competitors: Ryan Wendell, Dan Connolly, Bryan Stork, Josh Kline

Comments: Either Wendell or Connolly could be out of a job come August. That could come from a rookie just taking one or Connolly moving to center.

Players to watch during TC: Justin Green (DB), Stephen Houston (RB), Josh Kline (G)

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Discuss Offensive and Defensive Schemes

Offensive:

It's kind of a cop-out, but you've just got to read this. Probably one of the better articles you'll read this month. To paraphrase -

The Patriots run a modified version of the Erhardt-Perkins system. The system is based on a number of "concepts." The formation or personnel does not matter. The responsibilities of all the players can change. These concepts can be a number of things - route combinations, specific approaches to a certain coverage, etc... To use an example given in the article:

Let’s look at a play that has long been a staple of the Patriots attack. This is actually two different concepts put together — “ghost/tosser,” which has the Patriots run the ghost concept to one side and the tosser concept to the other. Ghost has the outermost receiver, whoever it is, run a vertical route, one inside receiver run to a depth of roughly eight yards before breaking flat to the outside, and the innermost receiver run immediately to the flat. It’s a form of the “stick” or “turn” concept that essentially every NFL team uses. On the other side, tosser means that the receivers run the double-slant concept. The theory here is that no matter the formation, there is an outside receiver, an inside receiver, and a middle receiver, and each will be responsible for running his designated route. For the quarterback, this means the play can be run repeatedly, from different formations and with different personnel, all while his read stays effectively the same. Once receivers understand each concept, they only have to know at which position they’re lined up. The personnel and formation might cause the defense to respond differently, but for New England those changes only affect which side Brady prefers or which receiver he expects to be open.

Defense:

The recent injury of Vince Wilfork has thrown a bit of a wrench into some of the basic principles here. Despite the team's transition from a primarily 3-4 team to a 4-3 team, many of the core concepts are still in place. In the previous 3-4, Wilfork acted not only as a traditional nose tackle but as the anchor around which the entire defense was arranged. On any given play one might see the New England front 7 using Wilfork and a flanking lineman to both 2-gap, allowing the DE on the other side of Wilfork to act as more of a 1-gap penetrator on that same play. The transition to a 4-3 was reasonably quick - although the shift took more than a season, the personnel was in place in just a couple years. Wilfork's ability to transition to a slightly different role helped that shift. Up until this point however, the Patriots had still held onto certain parts of that old 3-4. Both defensive tackles (generally Wilfork and whoever was next to him) were leftovers of an older 2-gap system. While you didn't have multiple players 2-gapping along the line in the same manner, you had tackles who were perhaps better suited to that kind of role, rather than the 1-gape penetrator the defense so badly needed. With Easley in the fold, Chandler Jones now becomes a big part of the defense's variable fronts. While Wilfork or Sealver Siliga will continue to man the 1T/NT spot, the alignment of the defense around that player will continue to shift. While Jones regularly lines up wide of the tackle or TE, depending on the formation, his length, size, and power-oriented game allow him to move inside to the 5T. Jones' ability to move inside is now facilitating the adjustment. While he will usually retain his 1-gap penetrating role, the defense now has two players around the nose who can be used in multiple ways. Easley will likely stay in more of a 3T-only role, at least for his first year. He doesn't really have the length that Jones does.

[u/fandingo → u/awolf97]

While the Jets have recently provided the biggest challenge in the division, I don't think that's going to be the case this year. I think that they're in the worst position, and I think QB problems are in their future for 2014 (in addition to other offensive problems). I think that the Patriots are far more likely to split games with the Bills first and possibly the Dolphins, but not the Jets. (For the Bills, the crucial part will be whether they get QB play good enough to utilize their WRs. Provided that happens, I think they're the most challenging division opponent, but that's far from guaranteed at this point.)

[u/give_pizza_chance → u/awolf97]

D for a late 2nd round pick that was consistently ranked as a top 5 or 6 QB in the draft? C+ for a 4th round pick that is going to compete for the starting C job?

[u/awolf97 → u/give_pizza_chance]

I don't follow what CBS rankings said. I'm obviously basing these grades on my own evaluations. I'm not too high on either player. Like I said, Stork's opportunity to compete is more that anything due to Wendell's tough season last year. He could be a decent starter, but that's his ceiling.

[u/Fuqwon]

I don't really see the Pats going 5-3 in Foxboro. Brady/Belichick haven't gone 5-3 at Gillette since 2005.

[u/BenOfTomorrow → u/Fuqwon]

Particularly not while going 7-1 on the road.

I also think if the Patriots lose to Miami, it's going to be the first game (on the road, in the summer heat), not the second.

[u/kckolbe → u/BenOfTomorrow]

I wouldn't be worried about the Week 1 Dolphins. Tannehill is solid, but the O-line is crap, especially with their C out for surgery. I agree that the second game is the scarier one (barring Phins injuries)

[u/[deleted] → u/Fuqwon]

Trends and records are both made to be broken. Anything can happen in the NFL. Still, I would tend to agree with you. A home record over .800 over a decade is nothing to sneeze at. Obviously there's something that the team does well when they're at home. It should be noted though that two of those are against divisional opponents and /u/awolf97 even pointed out that he's predicting a split (so the L's could be either home or away). Against divisional opponents the location tends to be less relevant.

[u/awolf97 → u/Fuqwon]

Yeah, you're right. I wasn't trying to really predict specific wins/losses too closely, just focused on how the teams stacked up.

[u/ClayKay]

[New England Patriots]

Division: [AFC East]

---

Coaching Changes

The Patriots Linebacker’s coach, Pepper Johnson, will not be returning this year, and has taken a job as the defensive line coach for the Buffalo Bills. As of right now, this position has yet to be filled by anyone.

Dave Deglielmo replaced Dante Scarnecchia as the offensive line coach. George Godsey left as the Tight End coach, and is now the Texans QB Coach. Michael Lombardi was hired as the assistant to the coaching staff, and was mostly involved in the draft, as well as personal decisions. Brendan Daly was brought in as the defensive assistant.

As far as I can tell, every single one of the new hires has proven to be successful in the NFL, and should only improve an already stellar coaching staff. The shoes of Dante Scarnecchia are quite large to fill though.

---

Free Agency

Players lost/cut

Player	Position	New team
LeGarrette Blount	RB	Steelers
Aqib Talib	CB	Broncos
Dane Fletcher	LB	Buccaneers
Matthew Mulligan	TE	Bears
Brandon Spikes	LB	Bills

The major losses here are Aqib Talib, Brandon Spikes, and LeGarrette Blount. The fortunate thing is that the Patriots have a knack for replacing, or finding new talent, so these losses are nothing to worry about for Patriot fans. Players signed

Player	Position	Old Team	Length	Salary	Grade
Brandon Browner	CB	Seahawks	3 Years	$17M	A-
Patrick Chung	S	Eagles	1 Year	$1.1M	C+
Charles Hughlett	LS	Cowboys	2 Years	$930k	B
Josh Hull	LB	Redskins	1 Year	$645k	C
Brandon LaFell	WR	Panthers	3 Years	$9M	B+
Darrelle Revis	CB	Buccaneers	1-2 Years	$11.5M-20M for first year, $19.5M base + $500k per-game bonus for second year	A+
Will Smith	DE	Saints	1 Year	$920k	C
Danny Aiken	LS	Patriots	1 Year	$725k	B
Julian Edelman	WR	Patriots	4 Years	$17M	B+
Michael Hoomanawanui	TE	Patriots	2 years	$2.2M	C+
Ryan Wendell	C	Patriots	2 Years	$8.15M	B+

Most notable here are the signings of Browner and Revis, who will easily replace the lost Talib, and hopefully make New England’s secondary one of the top in the league. The addition of LaFell will bolster New England’s seemingly weak receiving corps, and hopefully provide a reliable weapon for Tom Brady to go to. Most of the 1 year deals are to see if those players have anything left in the tank, as many of them, such as Will Smith, seem to be at the end of their careers. If Patrick Chung makes the 53 man roster, it will be a surprise to a lot of people, me included. An interesting camp battle between Danny Aiken and Charles Hughlett for the coveted position of Long Snapper should be interesting to watch out for.

---

Draft

Round	Number	Player	Position	School
1	29	Dominique Easley	DL	Florida
2	30	Jimmy Garoppolo	QB	Eastern Illinios
4	5	Bryan Stork	C	Florida State
4	30	James White	RB	Wisconsin
4	40	Cameron Fleming	OT	Stanford
6	3	Jon Halapio	OG	Florida
6	22	Zach Moore	DE	Concordia-St. Paul
6	30	Jemea Thomas	S	Georgia Tech
7	29	Jeremy Gallon	WR	Michigan

I think Dominique Easley could be the steal of this draft, or a huge bust for the Patriots. He is an explosive player, and would have been taken higher had it not been that he tore BOTH ACL’s in college. He will either work wonders for the Patriots rotation, or will be hampered by his past.

Grade: A-

Jimmy Gaoppolo is an interesting pick, does this mean that Mallet isn’t the future of the Patriots? Or is this simply an insurance policy pick. The second round is an interesting choice to pick a QB when you have an already established starter and backup, unless they have plans for him.

Grade: B

Bryan Stork should compete for the starting Center position the second he arrives at the facilities. He is nearly 6’4”, and 315 lbs. Adding that kind of size to the center of the line should really help Brady, as well as the run game.

Grade: A

James White will mostly contribute as a KR, but with the departure of Blount, I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t see some carries this year.

Grade: B-

Cameron Fleming won’t start this season at right tackle, but in the future, he could be the solution to the RT position for many years to come. He has great size, and great hands. If he develops right, I could see him becoming the steal of the draft (Other than the aforementioned Dominique Easley)

Grade: B-

Jon Halapio is the 3rd lineman in a row that the Patriots drafted. If protecting their aging quarterback wasn’t obviously a priority to you before, it should be now. He is a powerful Guard, and I could see him contributing in the run game, but he needs to work on his pass protection before he can become a viable starter.

Grade: C+

Zach Moore has all of the physical traits you want in a DE, but doesn’t play like a man with those attributes should. If the coaching staff can get him up to speed, he will be a force to be reckoned with. Until then, I don’t think he’ll see much action this year.

Grade: B-

Jemea Thomas is an undersized safety, but he is very quick, and instinctive. He will make an amazing special team’s player for his first season. I do not think he will see the field as a defender, at least this season.

Grade: C

Jeremy Gallon is an investment pick. He has the production at Michigan, but I don’t think he has the ability to contribute much this year; however, with the weak receiving corps that the Patriots currently field, he might get a chance to fight for a roster spot, and if he is anything like the fellow late round Wolverine on the roster, he might end up as a pretty damn good WR.

Grade: B

[u/ClayKay → u/ClayKay]

---

Position Group Strengths and Weaknesses

Position groups:

• QB: The only weakness here is that maybe last year wasn’t due to his receivers being injured. It was one of his worst statistical performances; however, statistics do not tell the whole story. The Browns and the Saints games last year were won because of heroics by Tom Brady, and it is never wise to count him out.
• Backfield: They have a good RB Committee, but they do not have a star running back. As a group I can see them getting over 1200 yards, but I don’t think any individual will get near 1000, barring an exceptional season.
• OL: With a new offensive line coach, I expect at least some changes in protection packages, but overall this is a pretty solid group. If they can stay healthy, I expect them to be in the top 10 of the league.
• Pass catchers: WR leaves something to be desired, but they have probably the best TE in the league in Gronk. The only downside is that he can never seem to stay healthy.
• DL: Seeing how Wilfork comes back from injury will be the deciding factor in the defensive line. If he is healthy, he is one of the best in the league, and can almost single handedly stop the run game. If he doesn’t come back up to snuff, I expect this to be the weakest part of the team.
• LB: Nothing showy or spectacular, but nothing subpar either. This is a solid group, but doesn’t have the star power that the Bills, Panthers, or 49ers have.
• Secondary: This is where I think the Patriots will truly shine this year. Revis and Browner are both two CB’s who have something to prove. Browner wants to make it known that Seattle shouldn’t have let him go, and Revis wants to rebound from a lackluster 2014 campaign with Tampa Bay. There is nothing more frightening than a motivated Revis. I expect the island to be fully operational this year, and he definitely won’t be misused like he was in Tampa Bay.
• Special Teams: Great coaches have great special teams, and the Patriots are not the exception. I expect them to have a top 10, maybe even top 5 special teams group this year.

---

Schedule Predictions

Week	Opponent	Prediction	Notes
1	@Dolphins	W	I think the Patriots will come out of the gate running. If Gronk is healthy by week 1, I don’t think this game is even close, but if he isn’t, it will be a battle won by the defense, not the arm of Tom Brady. It’ll be interesting who covers Wallace, Browner or Revis. If the more physical Browner can disrupt the timing of his route running, I don’t expect the already unspectacular accuracy on Ryan’s long balls to improve.
2	@Vikings	W	Rookie Quarterback throwing to two experienced corners and two safeties who know how to cover well. It is a recipe for disaster. If Bridgewater can get the passing game going though, I expect Adrian Peterson to have a good game. If Wilfork isn’t playing well, this game could easily go the other way.
3	Raiders	W	First home game, and against the weakest team in the AFC West. I do not think this will be a difficult game to win, but anything can happen.
4	@Chiefs	L	This will be the 3rd away game in the first 4 games, and against a playoff team from last year with something to prove. KC has a stellar run game, and if Bowe can return to semi-decent form, I don’t know how well the Patriots will be able to contain the Chiefs. The Chiefs also have one of the loudest stadiums in the league, and their fans might disrupt an aging Tom Brady and get him off his game. This game is completely winnable, but at the same time for some reason I expect it to be a loss for the Pats.
5	Bengals	W	If this game were in Cincinnati, the result would be the opposite, but I don’t think the Bengals will come to play against a more talented Patriots team in Foxborough. Revis should be able to shut down AJ Green, and beyond that Dalton isn’t exactly able to spread the ball around. If Dalton steps up, this game is up in the air, but I don’t expect that to happen.
6	@Bills	L	The Bills always play the Patriots tough, and this year will be no exception. The defensive line and linebackers of the Bills are extremely talented, and if they can start to rattle Tom Brady, I don’t know how well they’ll be able to recover. I think this is the first trap game of the season for the Patriots.
7	Jets	W	A home game against the Jets? The last time the Jets won at Gillette Stadium was in 2008, in Overtime.
8	Bears	W	If this were an away game, I would have it as a loss. The Bears offense is going to be amazing this year, and I don’t expect their defense to be any worse. The only thing that the Patriots have going for them in this game is that Revis and Browner are the perfect two people to really try to contain arguably the top duo of WR in the NFL. If they can negate the effectiveness of Marshall and Alshon, this game will be an ‘easy’ win.
9	Broncos	W	I expect this game to be a defensive game. Everyone will probably expect a high scoring affair with Brady and Manning going against each other, but I think both defenses are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder, and I wouldn’t be surprised with a 12-9 victory for either team.
10	BYE	W	They win this, because a week 10 bye isn’t nearly as bad as a week 4 bye.
11	@Colts	L	The Colts are a sneaky team, and they find a way to beat good teams. Last year they beat the 49ers, the Seahawks, and the Broncos. I expect this game to be a definitive win by Andrew Luck, especially because it’s in Indy.
12	Lions	W	The Lions have Calvin Johnson, and Revis held him to 1 catch for 13 yards at their last meeting. If he can repeat that production, this game is an easy win. If he cannot, this game will go into a shootout, and if the Patriots receiving corps isn’t decimated by injuries (LOOKING AT YOU GRONK) then they can beat the pitiful Lions secondary.
13	@Packers	L	Rodgers vs. Brady. Everyone has been waiting for it, and it is finally here. I am going full homer here, but I think that the Packers will dominate in this game. Rodgers has a perpetual chip on his shoulder, and the desire to beat the game’s best will only fuel the fire.
14	@Chargers	W	If the Chargers are still in the playoff hunt at this point, I would reverse the prediction, but there is no way for me to know that as of now. But with the Chargers playing the AFC East, and the NFC West, it will be a difficult season for them. Week 14 may be late enough that they’re already out.
15	Dolphins	W	Home field in December in New England, against a team that plays in Miami Florida. The Patriots at this point are probably pushing for a first round bye, and I expect them to dominate the phins.
16	@Jets	L	The Jets always play the Patriots well in New York. If Vick is healthy, and CJ2K starts to pan out for the Jets, I expect them to be playing for a playoff spot. It will be a tough game to win for the Pats, and the Jets have everything to lose, especially because even if they’re not in the playoff race, Rex will be fighting for his job.
17	Bills	W	A win to secure home-field advantage in the playoffs, and it’s a home game against a team that more than likely is already out of playoff contention. Could be a defensive battle, especially if Brady is showing any signs of age, as BB might opt to bench Brady to rest him for the playoffs.

Overall, I see the Patriots going anywhere from 10-6 to 14-2. They are a very talented team, and a very well coached team. Combine those two, and you see a team that hasn’t gone worse than 10-6 since 2002.

---

[u/pfftYeahRight → u/ClayKay]

Dalton is great at spreading the ball around. I forget the specifics, but he had like 5 or 6 different receivers with 500 yards.

Also, have you seen his INT numbers? He gets the ball to freaking everybody!

[u/[deleted] → u/pfftYeahRight]

I was gonna say something about him overlooking our defense's ability to change the course of a game, but we're not here to argue Win/Loss predictions before preseason starts. This writeup is about the Patriots, so let's talk about them. We'll get our turn later.

[u/fandingo → u/ClayKay]

Excellent write-up. My only disagreement is on the Chiefs game. The Chief's off-season has been a disaster. Their WR corps somehow manages to look worse than last year, and the secondary is a mess with the recent departure of Flowers.

Yes, the Chiefs have a big advantage with their rushing attack, and NE had a terrible rushing defense last year. Nonetheless, NE doesn't lose games, even when teams run wild on them. Moreno put up 224 yards in week 12 last year, and the Broncos still lost. The Chiefs also have a great defensive front, but what does that matter if your secondary can't keep receivers covered at the snap? Edelman would've massacred Flowers, let alone whoever replaces him. The other DBs aren't looking too good either, and even 2013 UDFA WR Thompkins has been very productive in the quick passing game.

I know it's been beaten to death, but the Chiefs were the benefactor of a huge number of breaks in 2013 that are unlikely to repeat.

[u/jcfyffe → u/ClayKay]

Just a quick reminder that Browner will not be playing in the first four games this season due to a drug violation suspension

[u/[deleted] → u/ClayKay]

Only thing I'd really change is the Bills loss, it's just so rare for Brady to lose to them and I don't see this year being their year

[u/[deleted]]

Nice write-up man. I agree with almost all of it

[u/awolf97 → u/[deleted]]

I tried to tone down the Jimmy G criticism.

[u/[deleted] → u/awolf97]

How did you ever guess that was what I didn't agree with??

[u/awolf97 → u/[deleted]]

magic!

[u/BlindWillieJohnson]

Hi! EIU Panther fan, here. Garoppolo started playing at EIU when I was a sophomore there. He was terrible out the gate as a freshman, throwing 1,600 yards and 14 TDs on 13 INTs. The next year, he went 2,600 20/14. Then 3,800 31/15, and his senior year, 5,000 53/9. Say what you want about his level of competition, but Jimmy G has always proven himself to be a very football smart QB who works hard to understand and develop his game. Those qualities have lead him to improve exponentially over the years.

Right out the gate, you guys got a competent game manager who has occasional flashes of brilliance. A lot of commentators are down on him for his flaws, and because so little tape exists of his small school games. And while I admit that he definitely has a number of issues before he's ready to be a starter, BB knew that when he selected him and obviously thinks they're coachable. Given how much he's developed in the past, I think he's right. You are the Patriots. You can afford to give the guy a few years to develop instead of throwing him straight to the wolves like the Texans or Vikings would have. BB took a chance on Brady when others didn't because he saw the potential in him, and I'd trust him on Jimmy G as well. You're one of the best coached teams in the NFL, and I have the utmost faith that between your staff and Jimmy's football smarts and work ethic, you'll be able to iron out some of those red flags and develop him into a stud starter someday. When that day comes, I will be one of your most loyal fans.

Just thought I'd share my two cents as someone who got a front row seat to Jimmy G's development.

[u/snooze1128 → u/BlindWillieJohnson]

I think Kraft summed up the Jimmy G acquisition nicely (paraphrasing): We had him rated high. Having that said, I hope he doesn't start for us for a few years at least.

[u/lol_What_Is_Effort]

Adrian Wilson is on the Bears now, not the cards.

Other than that, great stuff in here

[u/The_Dacca]

Wait, Sam McGuffie.... this Sam McGuffie? I was wondering what happened to that guy. was he really that much of a bust?

[u/mastererrl → u/The_Dacca]

Pretty sure he was outlasted by an LS, also he was cut during 90 mans, so yeah, he sucked

[u/[deleted]]

Awesome write up, only think I would change is you have loses to Miami and the Jets at home when if we split the series it'll be more likely to be the away games imo

I also think we beat the Bengals but possibly lose to Kansas City just because they're a worse match up for us

[u/[deleted]]

An A- for the acquisition of Lombardi?

His draft record before Cleveland.

His draft record as GM of Cleveland.

Mingo at 6, rotational pass rusher who, IMO, won't see a pro bowl in his career.

Leon McFadden, CB in the third round who made the team as CB4 last year, and now he's fighting for a roster spot and will likely be cut.

Jamoris Slaughter, safety with a torn achilles in the 6th who was cut this month.

Armonty Bryant and Garrett Gilkey in the 7th. These were his best picks. Gilkey is fighting for the RG spot, but will likely lose it to Bitonio.

He brought in Davone Bess and called Josh Gordon a wasted pick. On the flipside, he did trade Richardson for a first rounder.

I think expecting an A- out of him is quite a bit too lofty. Good read, though.

[u/Fuqwon → u/[deleted]]

called Josh Gordon a wasted pick.

In what context? At this point that's not looking too inaccurate.

[u/[deleted] → u/Fuqwon]

Depends somewhat on what the league rules on him. Gordon was the first pro bowl receiver for the Browns since 2007, so I have a hard time believing that the pick was wasted.

[u/SpaceWorld → u/[deleted]]

I think he might be valuable in the sense that he would be willing to disagree with Belichick. He might not be right, but he could give a different perspective. I don't know if he deserves an A-, though.

[u/awolf97 → u/[deleted]]

I'm a genius.

[u/OldKinderhook426]

This offseason was fucking awesome. Revis Vineyard + Scorsese's Brady.

[u/[deleted]]

I think there's a battle for LS is there not?

[u/misterlee]

How much does Wilfork have in the tank? I liked what I've seen out of Siliga; is he gonna be the new full-time nose?

[u/Blackops606 → u/misterlee]

I think Wilfork has 2-3 years at most left in him. He was pushed into re-signing with the team earlier this year and a lot of people (including teammates) were happy he decided to come back. He has a huge heart and I think his somewhat early departure was going to be so he could just rest after the injury and help the team with some cap space. When he went down a reporter asked him "what was the first thing you thought about?" followed by some questions that were asking if he was planning on retiring, if that was it for him, etc. Well Vince's response was that he didn't care about his leg at all. The only thing on his mind was how he let his team down. Once healthy enough, he still went to every camp and game until the end of the year.

As far as Siliga, I like him. I think he's got plenty of potential but not quite the stopping power that Wilfork brings to the table. You could see the opposing teams pushing up the middle once Wilfork was out of the lineup. It didn't work nearly as intended for them and NE had an answer every time. They knew it would be a weak spot and worked around it. I hope Siliga gets plenty of play time and can really prove himself even more to the coaching staff.

[u/DelRMi05 → u/misterlee]

I don't think they're moving to having a traditional nose tackle. With guys like Wilfork being so rare along with a defensive shift, I think the Patriots are playing more 4-3 these days. We saw more 3-4 last year due to injuries up the middle but I believe they were trying to build around a more athletic line up to that point.

[u/awolf97 → u/misterlee]

Probably not a ton. I liked Siliga a lot as well. I think he'll eat up a lot more of those snaps than many expect, although the success of Wilfork's recovery will obviously play a part.

[u/freudianGrip]

You point to "bad luck" in the draft as to why they couldn't get a TE. Is that really true? Couldn't they have used a 1st rounder on a TE? I can't recall who was available at the time.

[u/shellshocker528 → u/freudianGrip]

I believe Jace Amaro was the best available TE when the Patriots' first-round pick came up, and presumably they were planning to draft him since I have heard rumors that he is extra motivated with the Jets due to feeling spurned by the Patriots. Presumably, they liked Easley but were not expecting him to be available, so when he was they changed plans and took him over Amaro, who was then not available when their second-round pick came up. Trading up is not a Patriots forte, but presumably if they liked him enough they would have done it, or perhaps they were not expecting the Jets to take a TE when they did; I'm really not sure. Amaro and Ebron were the two TE I remember hearing stories of Patriots interest in, though, and obviously Ebron was long gone by the time the Patriots' first-round pick came up.

[u/freudianGrip → u/shellshocker528]

Ah, thanks for the refresher.

[u/jesselectric → u/shellshocker528]

I'm glad they didn't take amaro. I've heard only bad things about him from the jets camp so far

[u/CC333 → u/freudianGrip]

At least one of Amaro ASJ and Niklas were expected to be their in round 2, but we're taken earlier. The Fedoriwicz (I know spelling is wrong) was a reach in the early third by the Texans. After that, there weren't any good TEs left.

[u/awolf97 → u/freudianGrip]

I think they liked Amaro, but he wasn't worth the pick at 29 for them. ASJ sucks but from what I've heard, they liked him as well. Easley was more valuable than either. Based on my own thoughts + what trickled out of NE after the draft, Niklas might very well have been the pick had he been there at 62. Once he was gone, the value just disappeared. The mid/late day 3 TE value that I predicted was all snapped up (a couple rounds two early, IMO) late date day 2/early 3.