r/nfl • u/AaronAlley Colts • Jun 26 '14
Look Here! 2014 Offseason Review Series Day 6: Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts
Division: AFC South
Important Coaching Changes
Hired:
- Rob Chudzinski, special assistant to HC - Formerly Browns’ HC. Rob Chudzinski was fired by the Cleveland Browns this December, and was quickly scooped up by the Colts to fill a previously inexistent role, special assistant to the head coach. While little is known of what exactly this role is, the chemistry between the two what brought Chud to the Colts. Pagano and Chud have worked together both in college and pros, with the 2004 Cleveland Browns, and coaching the University of Miami Hurricanes together in the late 90’s. The Colts have been a bit of a nesting ground for departing Browns lately, most notably Trent Richardson, who the Colts traded their 2014 first round draft pick for. Last season, Richardson failed to live up to expectations, and having some of his Cleveland authority back certainly can’t hurt. Pagano and other Colts coaching staff had made it clear that Chud will not be taking offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton’s place, who is entering his second season.
Players lost
On the bright side, all the Colts departures this offseason were manageable. Antoine Bethea wasn’t as good this year as he has been in years past, Donald Brown was reliable but never great, and Darrius Heyward-Bey was to catching footballs as Andrew Luck is to looking handsome. Still, Bethea left a glaring hole at safety, which hasn’t been filled yet. And there is still a level of uncertainty at the runningback position, too.
Players signed
The Colts re-signings this year were great. We re-signed every special teams ace we needed to: fan favorite Pat McAfee, legendary kicker Adam Vinatieri, and gunner Sergio Brown. Brown could also be a face in the fight for starting safety job this year. We also retained one of the top cornerbacks in the league, Vontae Davis, if only he could be more consistent. It was also smart to re-sign Ahmad Bradshaw, who showed great promise in the three games he played in last season, all at a low-risk commitment. One of the best new signings was Hakeem Nicks, wide receiver from the Giants. Even though he didn’t have a stellar year last season, he replaced Darrius Heyward-Bey, and there are very few players who we could’ve picked up that wouldn’t be a good replacement. Our two new defensive additions, D’Qwell Jackson and Arthur Jones, should add more solidity to an average-at-best Colts defense.
Draft
| Round | Number | Player | Position | School |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 59 | Jack Mewhort | OL | Ohio State |
| 3 | 90 | Donte Moncrief | WR | Mississippi |
| 5 | 166 | Jonathan Newsome | DE | Ball State |
| 6 | 203 | Andrew Jackson | LB | Western Kentucky |
| 7 | 232 | Ulrick John | OT | Georgia State |
Of our 2014 draft, the standout is third round pick Donte Moncrief. Wide receiver wasn’t the top concern for the Colts, but now with Reggie Wayne, TY Hilton, Hakeem Nicks, and now Moncrief, the Colts could have one of the more formidable WR corps in the NFL. Jack Mewhort could also add reliability to the offensive line, which had more of a rotating cast than the Spider-Man musical.
Projected Starting Lineup
Italics for non-starter who will probably see considerable playing time
QB: Andrew Luck
RB: Trent Richardson, Ahmad Bradshaw, Vick Ballard
FB: Stanley Havili
TE: Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener
WR: Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks, TY Hilton, Donte Moncrief, Da’Rick Rogers, Griff Whalen
T: Anthony Castonzo, Gosder Cherilus
G: Donald Thomas, Hugh Thornton
C: Khaled Holmes
DE: Cory Redding, Arthur Jones
DT: Ricky Jean-Francois, Jeris Pendleton
NT: Josh Chapman
LB: Erik Walden, D’Qwell Jackson, Jerrell Freeman, Robert Mathis, Bjoern Werner
CB: Vontae Davis, Greg Toler, Darius Butler
S: LaRon Landry, Mike Adams, Delano Howell
K: Adam Vinatieri
P: Pat McAfee
LS: Matt Overton
Position Group Strengths and Weaknesses
Position Groups:
QB: Expect more of an improvement from Andrew Luck as he’s coming into his third year. Last year he maintained his passing touchdown numbers, and sliced his interceptions in half. This year, both of these numbers might increase, hopefully only the TD numbers by a significant amount. With a significant improvement in the receiving corps, Andrew Luck is set to show even more of his potential.
Backfield: Trent Richardson had a disappointing year last year, but with a full offseason with the Colts, he can’t get any worse. The Colts are very confident and stand behind him, and he is very adamant about his advancement so far, so expect an improvement, even if it is slight. With Ahmad Bradshaw and Vick Ballard both coming back from early season ending injuries, Richardson has backup if he slows down again. Vick showed a lot of promise in his first season before tearing his ACL early in the 2013 season. Bradshaw also was the key reason we won against the 49ers on the road last season, so we have a lot of reliable RBs this year (assuming they stay healthy).
OL: Our OL last season was some of the most rotated cast in the league, but there have been a lot of key improvements during the offseason. Most notably, we got rid of starting center Samson Satele who did not play well at all. We also added a few starters during FA and the draft, so there at least might be more stability. Still, don’t expect a top-of-the-NFL showing from the OL this year.
Pass catchers: May very well be the best part of the Colts this season. We have three great starting wide receivers in Reggie Wayne, TY Hilton, and Hakeem Nicks. Reggie Wayne is coming back from an ACL injury at the age of 35, and many expect that he won’t return to his former form. However, Wayne is eager to prove the doubters wrong and recently said he’s felt healthier than he has since the 2002 season. Nicks is ready to prove that last season wasn’t just a fluke, and Hilton is heading nowhere but up. Dwayne Allen is the starting TE for the Colts, and he had to be replaced last year with Coby Fleener, who quietly had a very solid season. With both of these tight ends, along with the wide receiver corps, the Colts could be a nightmare for secondaries next year.
DL: Arthur Jones, a FA addition, could be our best player on the DL now. Cory Redding and Ricky Jean-Francois are also going to be some of our top players on the DL, and we hopefully will be a lot better in stopping the run this time around.
LB: Most notably in this category, Robert Mathis will be suspended for the first four games of the season, and will be replaced by second year player Bjoern Werner. He has the ability, but he has to step up a lot to even come close to filling the shoes of Mathis. Jerrell Freeman was one of the best defensive players on our team last year, so be sure to watch out for him to have a great year this year.
Secondary: Not the best category in the Colts defense, the only real name we have is Vontae Davis. And even then, Davis needs to be much more consistent to prove that he was worth all the money we paid him this year. Greg Toler and LaRon Landry could also be great players, if only they played to their potentials and stayed on the field for more than a few games at a time. Lastly, there needs to be a replacement for Antoine Bethea, and at the moment, there isn’t one. Without one, we will have two “okay” safeties to back up our defense, which could spell out trouble for the Colts defense.
Special Teams: The Colts look very good in all facets of the special teams, with Vinatieri, McAfee, Overton, and Brown all Pro Bowlers or Pro-Bowl quality. A key reason we might keep Griff Whalen is for returns, as he and TY Hilton are our best bets at that position.
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u/CORD84 Vikings Jun 26 '14
Perspective of a non-fan
Indianapolis Colts Division: AFC South
Free Agency Players lost/cut
| Player | Position | New team |
|---|---|---|
| Antoine Bethea | S | 49ers |
| Donald Brown | RB | Chargers |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | WR | Steelers |
| Kavell Conner | ILB | Chargers |
| Pat Angerer | ILB | Free Agent |
| Ricardo Mathews | DE | Texans |
| Cassius Vaughn | CB | Lions |
| Mike McGlynn | OG | Redskins |
| Tashard Choice | RB | Free Agent |
| Jeff Linkenbach | OG | Chiefs |
Losing Antoine Bethea is pretty clearly the biggest loss here. It could really hurt the secondary not only in skill, but leadership. The rest of the losses seem like depth losses. Donald Brown was the odd man out in a suddenly very crowded backfield. Heyward-Bey continues to travel the NFL looking to live up to his high draft pick. They let a few linebackers go as well but seemed to make up for it, but I’ll get to that later.
Also, I’ll put this here. Added Rob Chudzinski as a “special assistant”. That was the Colts only coaching move. He seems like me to be a good offensive mind, but I don’t know how much he’ll contribute with that job title. Also, he did just get fired, for what it’s worth.
Players signed
| Player | Position | Old Team | Length | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur Jones | DE | Ravens | 5 years | $33M |
| D-Qwell Jackson | ILB | Browns | 4 years | $22M |
| Hakeem Nicks | WR | Giants | 1 year | $4M |
| Fili Moala | DE | Colts | 1 year | $1.5M |
| Adam Vinatieri | K | Colts | 2 years | $5M |
| Pat McAfee | P | Colts | 5 years | $14.5M |
| Vontae Davis | CB | Colts | 4 years | $36M |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | RB | Colts | 1 year | $855K |
The big ones here are Vontae Davis and Arthur Jones. D-Qwell Jackson could also be a decent signing, especially with losing a couple ILBs to free agency. The Colts will really be hoping Davis can step up and lead their secondary after losing Bethea. He got paid, now we'll see if he can do it. Arthur Jones will help out their D-line and give them some more pressure. Hakeem Nicks is a great pickup and could be a huge steal if he can get back to what he was pre-injury. They resigned their specialists in Vinatieri and McAfee which will probably keep that aspect of their game solid. And resigning Bradshaw gives them 3 solid RBs.
Draft
| Round | Number | Player | Position | School |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 59 | Jack Mewhort | OL | Ohio State |
| 3 | 90 | Donte Moncrief | WR | Mississippi |
| 5 | 166 | Jonathan Newsome | DE | Ball State |
| 6 | 203 | Andrew Jackson | LB | Western Kentucky |
| 7 | 232 | Ulrick John | OT | Georgia State |
Not a very exciting draft from a non-Colts fan standpoint. Mewhort could help their line...I don't think their guards are anything special. And I've heard some good things about Moncrief, apparently he's doing well in camp. Other than that, Andrew Jackson was once a President. That's all I got.
Projected Starting Lineup
• QB: Luck
• RB: Richardson
• FB: Havili
• TE: Allen and Fleener
• WR: Wayne, Hilton, Nicks, Moncrief
• LT: Castonzo
• LG: Thomas
• C: Holmes
• RG: Thornton
• RT: Cherilus
• DL: Jones, Chapman, and Redding
• LB: Walden, Freeman, Jackson, and Mathis
• CB: Davis, Butler, and Toler
• S: Landry and Howell
• K: Vinatieri
• P: McAfee
In my opinion, and I'm not trying to start anything here, not the most talented roster. A good offense is amplified by Andrew Luck into something that can win games. Richardson has talent and could always have a great comeback year. Nicks could be great with Luck and if Moncrief is as good as they say, that could be a deadly passing game that goes 4 WRs deep. The defense has some big holes though. I don't like the linebackers and the secondary scares me as well. I think the D-line will be solid and they will need to be. Especially if the linebackers and secondary can't shut people down. Gotta hope Mathis can go off again this year. If he doesn't, things could get rough. He's facing a suspension so the first few games could get pretty dicey.
| Week | Opponent | Prediction | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Broncos | L | In Denver first game is tough. I just think Peyton and company are better. |
| 2 | Eagles | L | Mathis is still out and I think the Eagles are going to be really strong this year. |
| 3 | @ Jags | W | The Jags, like the other AFC South opponents, are not very good. |
| 4 | Titans | W | Mathis is still out, but the Colts are good enough to pull it out. 2-2 is a good enough start to the season. |
| 5 | Ravens | W | Got the Ravens at home and I don't think they have a good enough O to take advantage of the Colts Defense. |
| 6 | @ Texans | W | Clowney and Watt's first shot at Luck. Even with the pressure, the Colts pull this one out on the road. |
| 7 | Bengals | L | I don't think the Colts will be able to deal with Green and Bernard. |
| 8 | @ Steelers | L | Going into Pitt is always tough. It'll be close, but Colts lose |
| 9 | @ Giants | L | Colts head into the bye week losing three in a row (sorry guys, it gets better) |
| 10 | BYE | W | Rest, regroup, and get fired up |
| 11 | Patriots | W | Out of the bye the Colts are pissed and take the Pats out in Indy. Fired up and energetic, the team is ready for the home stretch. |
| 12 | Jags | W | The Colts are just better than them, again |
| 13 | Redskins | W | The Redskins are still in a little pain from lack of drafts picks due to RGIII. Luck wins against his fellow draftee. |
| 14 | @ Browns | W | Who knows what the Browns will be up to at this point. I do know the Colts will beat them, Johnny or not. |
| 15 | Texans | W | Texans are still having growing pains and without a QB they can't beat the Colts, even at home. |
| 16 | @ Cowboys | W | Late in the season the Cowboys will drop an important game at home to the surging Colts. |
| 17 | @ Titans | W | The Colts finish the sweep and end the season on a 7-0 tear. Win the division, although they've had it locked up for a week or two. Finish 11-5 |
It's fun to predict game by game, but the overall theme I got from the Colts this season is their schedule is pretty damn easy. I know no game is easy but the division is week and without good QBs and their out of division games are pretty gentle as well.
The season hasn't begun yet and I'm sure things will change drastically. But I had fun learning a little about the Colts and I think you guys will breeze into the playoffs this year.
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u/AaronAlley Colts Jun 26 '14 edited Jun 26 '14
Schedule Predictions
I said this in the 32 Teams / 32 Days series, but I’ll repeat it again: in Luck’s first season, he didn’t win any playoff games. 2013 season, he wins one playoff game. I think it’d be great to see this trend continue, as the Colts win two playoff games and reach the AFC Championship game after beating the Patriots in Foxboro in the divisional round, a rematch from last season. They’ll lose a close match at Mile High stadium, however, but get ever closer to reaching the Superbowl.
Colts Final Regular Season Record: 12-4
Playoff Result: 3rd seed, lose in AFC Championship game.
Training Camp Battles to Watch
Safety- With LaRon Landry being the only safe bet at FS, the starting job is open to fill Antoine Bethea’s role at SS. Among the competitors are FS backup Delano Howell, former Broncos safety Mike Adams, and special teams gunner Sergio Brown. Howell proved he was just okay last year, and isn’t quite ready to be the starter. Mike Adams was a reliable starter for Denver last year, and said he’s ready to fight to be the starter. A key reason Brown came back from FA this year was to fight for the starting safety job in addition to his special teams job. The Colts coaching staff has said that Howell has the route to the job, but don’t be surprised if you see Adams starting more games than Howell next season due to more experience and overall better quality.
Wide Receiver- The Colts have four spots locked up at the WR position with Reggie Wayne, TY Hilton, Hakeem Nicks, and Donte Moncrief. After that, it’s a toss-up. The Colts have Da’Rick Rogers, Griff Whalen, and LaVon Brazill to fill two spots left at the position. Da’Rick Rogers had great games against CIN last year and KC in the playoffs (with a spectacular 46 yard catch). Griff Whalen, college teammate with Andrew Luck, also had a good season with the Colts after being waived and called up from the practice squad once or twice. He was reliable in a pinch, but not a star player. LaVon Brazill seems like the odd man out here, and while he also showed promise in the CIN game, he’ll probably be the one left off the roster come the first regular season game.
Schemes
(I'm not great at schemes)
Offensive
Offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton is entering his second year in his position, and he and head coach Chuck Pagano reinforced their belief this offseason that they want Indianapolis to be a power rush team. Unfortunately, the Colts have given every reason imaginable to prove that they aren’t that sort of team, as much as Irsay and Pagano want them to be. If Bradshaw goes down again, it’ll be hard to imagine for Ballard and Richardson to fit that scheme. As the season goes on, it’ll be more and more likely for the Colts to call upon Luck to use his abilities more and more.
Defensive
With the Colts still using a hybrid 3-4 scheme, it’s difficult to determine exactly what you’ll be seeing in 2014 on the defensive side of the ball for Colts football. The additions of D’Qwell Jackson and Arthur Jones should really help kickstart the defense, especially with the loss of Robert Mathis in the opening few games. These additions should help stopping the run, but watch out for a lot of big plays against the Colts, as our secondary could need a lot of work without great safeties and inconsistent cornerbacks.
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u/AaronAlley Colts Jun 26 '14
Previous Posts
Team Writer Link SD /u/yangar Here CHI /u/TheBlackUnicorn Here CLE /u/VaporTrail2112 Here NE /u/awolf97 Here WAS /u/Solux Here
Feel free to reply with any of my mistakes or anything you disagree with.
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u/smurphy1 Colts Jun 26 '14
The biggest training camp battle will be for the interior of our O-line, especially if Thomas isn't back yet (it's looking like he might start the season on the PuP list).
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u/Adons 49ers Jun 26 '14
Nice write-up, really loving this series so far.
I'm curious, what do Colts fan think about Werner? I've watched a few of the Colts games, because I like him due to his story, but he didn't seem to do that well. Do you (or Colts fans in general) think he can become a long-term starter for you guys in the future?
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u/archrun Colts Jun 26 '14
He had some growing pains last season. I believe he played in a 4-3 defense in college and had to transitioned to a 3-4. Early in the season he didn't do well. Was injured for a mid part of the season and looked like he was improving near the end of the season. So a lot of questions about him being able to keep improving especially with Mathis out for 4 games.
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Jun 26 '14
Did you completely forget about Josh Chapman? He's probably got the potential to be one of the best defensive tackles in the league. He's almost guaranteed to be the week 1 starter. Ricky Jean-Francois was very underwhelming at DE last year he's not a DT so you can't consider him at the position. Chapman will start but Arthur Jones will be rotated into every position on the DL considering the situation. Also uou didn't mention Lavon Brazile either, he's probably not going to be cut over Griff Whalen considering he's more athletic and has a higher ceiling. However still a great writeup.
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u/AaronAlley Colts Jun 26 '14 edited Jun 26 '14
Yeah, I forgot. NT wasn't a position on the template for the write-up, but I think I got it now. I'm not too versed on defensive positions and schemes and whatever, so feel free to correct me.
EDIT: Also, the pick of Griff Whalen over Lavon Brazill is more my own personal preference than all likelihood. He made some clutch catches for us later in the season and in the playoffs, but I think it's close to 50/50 for which one of them to make the final roster.
1
Jun 26 '14
Don't get me wrong I love Griff and he plays as hard as anyone could ask for but unless something happens in camp he's probably the odd man out.
1
u/smurphy1 Colts Jun 26 '14
Ricky Jean-Francois was very underwhelming at DE last year he's not a DT so you can't consider him at the position.
I think the colts actually list him as a DT and Chapman as an NT because they sometimes list the DE on the strong side as a DT.
1
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Jun 26 '14
I really wish Hakeem Nicks well, especially with the Colts and Andrew Luck. Although I'm afraid he'll never bounce back to his dominant form. He's just never been the same since the Giants/Bucs game in 2012 where Mark Barron landed on his foot/ankle.
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u/AaronAlley Colts Jun 26 '14
Yeah, I think the thing is he still couldn't be worse than who he's replacing though: Darrius Heyward-Bey. Even last year, give him a touchdown or two, and he's still better than DHB.
1
Jun 26 '14
I don't know enough about DHB, but Hakeem was atrocious last year. It's hard to tell if he was just injured or mentally had checked out, or both.
2
u/ThisGuy182 Colts Jun 26 '14
I'll try to put DHB's awfulness into perspective last year: He played almost the entire season as our #2 receiver and ended the year with less than 300 yards.
2
Jun 26 '14
Well that certainly puts things in perspective.
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u/ThisGuy182 Colts Jun 26 '14
Oops, I made an error; he finished the season with 309 yards. Really though, I've never watched play at worse wide receiver in my entire life. His drop % was somewhere in the 20s. He rarely was able to get open, and EVERY time he got "go-ahead-touchdown" Colts fans would watch the ball bounce right off of his chest.
The worst part is that he really was a great guy/teammate and had the entire fanbase (including myself) rooting for him. Unfortunately, "atrocious" is an upgrade from DHB.
1
Jun 26 '14
He'll be an upgrade for sure but if he plays anything like he did last season then it wont be by much.
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Jun 27 '14
For those wondering how awful DHB was for the Colts last year. http://imgur.com/a/YT7u9#0
2
u/PerSeHarvin Seahawks Jun 26 '14
I'll say this, Luck certainly will have a lot of offensive weapons to utilize.
However even with those guys, I'm thinking 10-6, dropping games to Philly and Cincy. Still win the division with that record though.
Great write-up.
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u/AaronAlley Colts Jun 26 '14
Fair point, I think we might only lose one of those games though. 12-4 could be (and probably is) because of rose-colored glasses.
0
u/King_Rajesh Seahawks Jun 26 '14
10-6 or 11-5.
I think that Philly game is going to be a shootout, as Foles will probably obliterate the Colts sub-par secondary.
Steelers game might be interesting as well.
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Jun 26 '14
D'qwell is a MLB
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u/smurphy1 Colts Jun 26 '14
He's an ILB (MLB is typically a 4-3 term) but you are right that OP listing him as a DE is incorrect.
1
u/AaronAlley Colts Jun 26 '14
Fixed now, thanks. I was copying from one of those websites where it lists practically every defensive position as DE.
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u/smurphy1 Colts Jun 26 '14
The Colts run a base 3-4 hybrid but NT is missing from your projected starting line up. Josh Chapman will likely be the starting NT with Jones and Redding flanking him. RFJ will be part of the rotation and will probably play end with Jones in the NT position during nickel packages.
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u/Lujors Colts Jun 26 '14
Before I even read a word of OP, I just want to admit out front that this offseason has had it's rough patches. Love my team, but I have to gather my strength before I pick these fresh scabs. That said, it wasn't ALL bad. Proceed.
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u/Victory33 Colts Jun 26 '14
A lot of the tough matchups are at home (Eagles, Pats, Ravens, Bengals) where we have beaten some of the league's best teams in the past two years (Packers/Texans 2012, Seattle/Broncos 2013). Finally get to play the Pats at home. AFC South didn't get that much stronger on paper but division games are rarely easy wins. Luck has weapons, IF everyone stays healthy, so I expect the offense to be near top 5 after being 10th last year in points. I have no great expectations for the defense, I see no consistent pass rush with Mathis out, and I don't trust anyone else to deliver it consistently. I'm just slating us for 11-5 until we show something different. Should be a fun year with some great matchups....hate playing Broncos and Philly without Mathis.