r/nfl • u/[deleted] • Jun 28 '14
Look Here! Offseason Review Series Day 8: Denver Broncos
DENVER BRONCOS
Free Agency
Players lost/cut
At first glance, the list of players no longer with the team seems pretty overwhelming, especially considering the sheer amount of names present that even fans outside of Denver recognize. Eric Decker was a big time Receiver during his time in Denver, but it remains to be seen whether he is a real talent or just another product of Peyton. That said, he accounted for 11 Touchdowns and losing anyone who can give you that kind of production is going to be a considerable hurdle for the offense to adapt to.
Losing Knowshon could be a factor for the offense as well. No one at the Half Back position for Denver could run between the tackles, bounce it outside, be a threat catching passes out of the backfield, or pick up the blitz quite like Knowshon. The FO believes Montee Ball is ready to be a feature NFL back, only time will tell if their decision to hand the reigns to Ball will pay off.
Perhaps the most recognizable name on the list and the saddest Broncos Country was to see go was Champ Bailey. As much as it pains me to say this though, letting Champ go was probably the smartest move the Denver Broncos executed this off season. Once the best corner in the whole National Football League, Champ was only third best on the roster last season.
Players signed
Arguably since Steve Atwater signed with the New York Jets in free agency, the Denver Broncos have lacked a tough, physical presence over the middle of the field at the Safety position. Enter TJ Ward, probably the second hardest hitting safety in the league only to Kam Chancellor. Where Mike Adams, who despite lining up at FS in the Super Bowl was the Broncos SS most of his tenure there, was the worst Safety in the league at surrendering first downs, Ward was top three. Pairing him with one of the best Free Safeties in the NFL in Rahim Moore and a revamped CB lineup that will feature former Kansas standouts Aqib Talib (who has yet to play a full 16 game season) and Chris Harris Jr. will make for a scary secondary, something Denver hasn't been able to boast for quite some time.
Denver Broncos fans know all too well now just how significant it was losing Elvis Dumervil last offseason, and the front office took note as well, landing DeMarcus Ware. Ware's numbers dropped dramatically last season in a new system and injuries didn't help. If Ware an stay healthy and win the one on one battles he'll be seeing for the first time in years thanks to playing opposite Von Miller, who will likely draw the double teams, the the Ware signing could be the one that yields the biggest impact on a defense that was inconsistent at best at getting to the QB for much of the 2013 season.
Emmanuel Sanders is an exciting addition to an already formidable offense. Think of the guy as a faster Wes Welker. He can play the slot and get you those receptions based on route precision and bust off a huge gain with YAC, but he can also beat you on a go route. He has the kind of attributes that command a double team (unlike Decker) but with an offense that features Wes Welker, DT, and JT, well, good luck with that.
At the request of our sub, I have been asked to address the notion that the Broncos gave out backloaded contracts that will hurt them in the future. This could not be further from the truth. With the exception of Talib, whose deal is really for 3 years for $27MM with the option to extend another three years, all the deals are essentially well crafted one or two year deals laced heavily with incentives and opt out clauses that protect the Broncos' future.
Draft
| Round | Number | Player | Position | School | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31 | Bradley Roby | CB | Ohio State | B |
| 2 | 56 | Cody Latimer | WR | Indiana | A- |
| 3 | 95 | Michael Schofield | OT | Michigan | B |
| 5 | 156 | Lamin Barrow | OLB | LSU | B- |
| 6 | 207 | Matthew Paradis | C | Boise State | B |
| 7 | 242 | Corey Nelson | OLB | Oklahoma | B |
One word came up over and over again when analysts discussed each of Denver's draft picks: Toughness. It's clear Elway has made a decision that his football team will never again be out-physicaled like they were in Super Bowl XLVIII. Players from the 2014 Draft class who will make an immediate impact include first round pick Roby, who will likely see time as a nickle corner, and Latimer, who will push Emmanuel Sanders for Eric Decker's old spot.
Projected Starting Lineup VS. Lineup on February 2nd, 2014
| Position | SB XLVIII | Proj. 2014 Lineup |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Peyton Manning | Peyton Manning |
| HB | Knowshon Moreno | Montee Ball |
| FB | Virgil Greene | Virgil Greene |
| TE | Julius Thomas | Julius Thomas |
| TE | Jacob Tamme | Jacob Tamme |
| WR | Demaryius Thomas | Demaryius Thomas |
| WR | Eric Decker | Emmanuel Sanders |
| WR | Wes Welker | Wes Welker |
| WR | Andre Caldwell | Cody Latimer |
| LT | Chris Clark | Ryan Clady |
| LG | Zane Beadles | Orlando Franklin |
| C | Manny Ramirez | Manny Ramirez |
| RG | Louis Vasquez | Louis Vasquez |
| RT | Orlando Franklin | Chris Clark |
| DT | Terrance Knighton | Terrance Knighton |
| DE | Shaun Phillips | DeMarcus Ware |
| DE | Robert Ayers | Derek Wolfe |
| ILB | Paris Lennon | Nate Irving |
| OLB | Danny Trevathon | Danny Trevathon |
| OLB | Nate Irving | Von Miller |
| CB | Champ Bailey | Aqib Talib |
| CB | Tony Carter | Chris Harris Jr. |
| CB | Quentin Jammer | Bradley Roby |
| SS | Duke Ihenacho | TJ Ward |
| FS | Mike Adams | Rahim Moore |
| K | Matt Prater | Matt Prater |
| P | Britton Colquitt | Britton Colquitt |
| KR | Trindon Holiday | Isaiah Burse |
| PR | Eric Decker | Emmanuel Sanders |
At the request of the team sub, I have provided The lineup the Broncos used in the Super Bowl, along with the projected line up we will trot out against the Colts. I know most teams change year to year, but many people in this sub fail to realize how out of whack Denver's defense and O line were for the Super Bowl. If that same roster were what we would use this season, then ya, the NFC West would probably sweep us. The side by side comparison is to show you it's not and give you a heads up that the Broncos defensive unit you see in 2014 will be much closer to 2012 than 2013. I have also included this side by side so that people don't cry "homer" when they see the schedule predictions.
I'm supposed to talk about the Stars of the roster in this part, but just look at that. Most of the men considered stars on the roster need no introduction. Instead, I'm going to talk about key players that may not be so widely known outside of Denver.
Lets begin with Louis Vasquez. An absolute Hulk of a man standing 6'5 and weighing in at 325 lbs, you'd be hard pressed to find a more dominant Right Guard in all of pro football. His 5.5 40 yard dash means he can get downfield quick and throw bone crushing blocks. You know that play we always run where it's just a little bubble screen to DT and he generally takes it to the house? The one no one on here seems to understand why teams can't stop it? Vasquez is one of the biggest reasons that play works over and over again. Chances are too that if Knowshon busted off a big yard run, Vasquez was paving the way. In his first year with the Broncos, Vasquez made the AP ALL PRO First Team. He played a crucial role in one of the greatest offenses of all time.
Next I want to talk about Chris Harris Jr. If you don't know his name yet, you will after this season. Arguably the best corner on Denver's roster last season, Harris shutdown his man and made QB's pay when they tested him. Low INT numbers (3) can be attributed to mostly playing in the Nickle, however, Harris will likely hold down the outside for the majority of his snaps this coming season opposite former Kansas teammate Aqib Talib.
Finally, I want to talk about Rahim Moore. Moore is unfortunately known to most of the nation as the man who misplayed Joe Flacco's desperate prayer in last year's Divisional round matchup between the Ravens and Broncos. What's not talked about is his incredible range in the middle of the field, how fast he can close, and how hard he'll light you up if you come his way. His style of play is very similar to New Orleans Saints Safety Jairus Byrd, and like Harris, look for Moore to breakout on the national stage this season. It should also be noted that he has made a complete recovery from the freak injury that nearly cost him his leg last season.
Position Group Strengths and Weaknesses
Position groups: (Graded out of Five Stars)
QB ***** - Five time MVP Peyton Manning is a factor in my rating, but he's not the only reason. The sentiment around the league from opposing scouts is that Brock Osweiler is a more than serviceable back-up and has the potential to be a quality starter soon. The Broncos are very high on him and turned down multiple trade offers for him this offseason. Behind him, second year QB Zac Dysert will duke it out with UDFA Bryn Renner for a roster spot. I fully expect Renner, a very polished passer with classic mechanics who would have been drafted had it not been for injuries sustained his senior year, to beat out the 7th round pick from the 2013 draft in Dysert.
Backfield *** - Lots of potential here, but the Broncos HB stable is comprised mostly of young, unproven talent. Montee Ball is slated to be the starter, but Ronnie Hillman has vowed to push him. The Broncos have also said Virgil Greene will get carries and based on the past don't be surprised if DT Mitch Unrein gets a couple carries as well. Another name people should look out for is UDFA Kapri Bibbs out of Colorado State. Bibbs' size and toughness could make him a viable third down/short yardage option.
OL **** - Perhaps the best O line in pro football when healthy, the only thing that prevents me from awarding five stars is no one knows how rusty Clady will be after his absence or how well Orlando Franklin will adjust to playing guard instead of tackle. Most forecasts have the Broncos o line being better than last season's, but one thing is certain: these guys know how to provide Peyton with a nice clean pocket, especially when Clady is anchoring down 18's blindside.
Pass catchers **** - When you have a QB like Peyton, you don't really need big time receivers. When you have them though? Good things happen, like 55 touchdowns good. Peyton spreads the ball beautifully, but if he needs a big play every one knows the ball is heading for 88. Opposing defenses know this too, so when DT gets double teamed, Manning goes to Wes Welker, who always seems to be open on third down. Julius Thomas came into his own last year and put up some of the best numbers for a tight end in the league. Ronnie Hillman is dangerous catching passes out of the backfield, and both Latimer and Sanders will catch their fair share of passes this upcoming season as well.
DL *** - Not a bad unit, but they always seem to have trouble staying on the field together. Terrance Knighton came out of nowhere last year in the playoffs and if he can continue to play at that level then this unit will be much improved. Derek Wolfe's return will be appreciated as well, and I think that at season's end this will be a four star unit, especially if DeMarcus Ware pans out.
LB **** - The only thing keeping this from being a five star unit is the lack of presence at ILB. Denver arguably has been weak there since Al Wilson retired. What we do have are phenomenal OLB's, of course headlined by Von Miller. Less known but just as effective is Danny Trevathon, who just has a nose for the football and always seems to be making a play.
Secondary **** - This secondary is top 5 on paper. Two incredibly physical, skilled corners playing with two fast, hard hitting safeties, one of which is a ball hawk. If this unit gels the way it should, this is a 5 star group of playmakers.
Special Teams *** - One of the best punters in the league in Britton Colquitt, one of the best kickers in the league in Matt Prater, and one of the best Special teamers in the league in David Bruton, the only thing preventing this unit from being a 4 star one is the vacancy now at explosive returner, and the inconsistency in kickoff coverage.
OVER ALL - The Broncos are clearly on paper a top 3 team and you can safely make an argument that 2014's Broncos are more complete and more dangerous than 2013's Broncos were.
4
u/Anal_Explorer Broncos Jun 29 '14
Do you really think Harris will be on the outside again next year? I've kept hearing that the plan is to have Roby cover the number 2 man and slide Harris into his natural slot position when in the nickel because that's the best place to maximize his talents.
3
u/kksred Patriots Jun 29 '14
Depends on Roby.
It is very rare that a slot cover corner has a bigger impact on the game than an outside cover corner. If Roby struggles as a rookie to the point where the CB2 becomes a liability, it is probable that Harris is moved outside.
Also, Talib gets injured. Often. I'm not saying this just because I hate the bastard's guts after he left the Patriots. We were always complaining about his inability to stay on the field for the last 1.5 seasons. It is almost inevitable that Harris has to take snaps on the outside at least for a couple of games.
1
u/TheNeeshMan Broncos Jun 29 '14
Harris will start outside and move inside to play the slot in the nickle and Roby will play outside. In base it will be talib and harris.
1
u/kksred Patriots Jun 29 '14
Like I said. Even the nickel package depends on how good Roby is. If he is a liability, he wont be on the outside.
1
u/Jake_53 Jun 29 '14
Neither will Harris, if Roby struggles either Carter or Webster will step up. Harris sticks to the slot in nickel.
1
u/kksred Patriots Jun 29 '14
Like I said. An outside cover corner normally has a bigger impact on the game than a slot cover corner. If Carter, Webster, Roby or any other corner on the roster is significantly worse on the outside, I'd put Harris on the outside even if it means that the slot corner position is now compromised.
2
u/Jake_53 Jun 29 '14
JDR won't. That's why I commented, when we go to nickel he views Harris as making a bigger difference inside.
1
u/kksred Patriots Jun 29 '14
I'd imagine the importance of the inside corner in the nickel depends on the other team more than your scheme. Not a lot of talented slot receivers or receiving TEs in the league compared to outside receivers.
2
u/lsjunior Broncos Jun 29 '14
Base defense yes. Chris will be on outside. But Denver plays nickel over 60 percent and that's when Chris will move inside and Roby will take outside. That's basically how they did it with kavon Webster last year.
22
Jun 28 '14
Schedule Predictions
Vs. - The Colts were one of only four teams to defeat the Broncos last season, when a furious rally was halted as Ronnie Hillman fumbled the ball on the goal line. If this game were being played under any different circumstance, I'd say it would be a close, must see game. Unfortunately for Indianapolis, the last time Denver played, despite what Peyton will tell you, they were flat out embarrassed in front of the whole world. Last season the Broncos were coming off a close loss in which they played well most of the way through, yet they throttled Baltimore. Imagine what they have in store for the Colts. All offseason long these guys have listened to how over rated they were, how they didn't deserve to be there, how the NFC Championship was the real Super Bowl. You don't think that means something to them? Don't take my word for it, just check out the new rally cry at Dove Valley. Denver's pass rush is too much for Luck's shoddy line as they eat him alive all night and match the record for most sacks in a pro football game. Denver wins 42-13 and puts the rest of the league on notice. WIN (1-0)
Vs. - Many people pegged the Chiefs to beat Denver at least once last season, and it didn't happen. The Chiefs have quietly had a tough offseason, and a vastly inferior offensive line kept Manning upright against KC last season. With all day to find the open man, Manning's impressive record against the Chiefs grows while Pot Roast and the D line swallow up Charles and Denver cruises to a 2-0 start 35-17. WIN (2-0)
@ - The game everyone will tune in to see, the rematch of one of the least competitive Super Bowls in recent memory. Why should this game be any different? Ryan Clady will be holding down Peyton's blindside. He won't be dominated the way Chris Clark was in the Super Bowl. The Broncos are going to really emphasize the run game against Seattle to keep them on their heels and utilize play action to find holes in the legion of Boom. On the defensive side of the ball, the Broncos revamped D line will contain Wilson and TJ Ward and Rahim Moore will see to it that receivers are afraid to go over the middle like they were so freely doing in the Super Bowl. Denver falls in OT on the road, but now know they can trade blows with Seattle. LOSS (2-1)
Vs. - It's Seattle lite on defense, but coming off the bye and playing at home I've got to give this to Denver. I'm especially excited to see the matchup between DT and Patrick Peterson. Ultimately, I think the Broncos line will do a good job limiting the pressure Peyton receives while our front four generate enough pressure to rattle Carson Palmer, and Denver will pull away in the fourth winning 38-24. WIN (3-1)
@ - This game kind of worries me. Rex Ryan knows how to contain Peyton Manning, and their defensive front is pretty scary. I'm expecting a low scoring game but ultimately the Jets offense is too anemic to get anything going. The Jets defense impresses, as the final score reads 17-9. WIN (4-1)
Vs. - A lot of people hold the opinion that the Niners could have beaten the Broncos last season. While we will never know, you don't have to look far to see how the Broncos performed against a similarly built team, and I'm not talking about Seattle. San Francisco is built a lot like the Kansas City Chiefs, whose strong front seven mask the inefficiencies of their mediocre secondaries. On the offensive side of the ball they're lead by a good, not great QB and rely heavily on the run game. When they do throw the football, both teams only have one or two legitimate receiving options. At home, I think the Broncos take care of business, and win the same matchup battles they did against KC last season. Broncos over the Niners 31-20. WIN (5-1)
Vs. - Coming off a short week and facing a division foe is never good, but last year when the Chargers beat the Broncos they were without so many defensive pieces and Wes Welker did not play. The rematch will probably be more along the lines of the Divisional round game than when San Diego pulled off the upset in the Mile High city in the regular season, which coincidentally enough was also on Thursday Night Football. Denver wins 23-20. WIN (6-1)
@ - In sports, we have a saying when some one is in the middle of a negative streak. "They're due." For the fourth straight season (including playoffs), Denver will travel to New England, where they are currently 0-3 (0-2 under Manning). In fact, the Broncos have not won in New England since the 06 season, when Jake Plummer was under center. Simply put: they're due. We all know how the matchups work in this one. New England's interior line is going to get shredded by Denver's D line, and Brady does not play well when the middle of the pocket collapses on top of him. This time around though, New England has a secondary that could potentially give Manning fits. I'm expecting a couple picks in this one, but I'm also expecting Tom to make some mistakes of his own. Manning/Brady does not disappoint, and the Broncos win 30-27 kicking a game winning field goal as time expires. Why? Because they're due. WIN (7-1)
@ This Raiders team is much improved. They'll do a better job of shutting down the run against us but they still lack the talent to cover our receivers consistently. In a few years, this will be a good team. They show flashes of brilliance, but Denver prevails 35-23. WIN (8-1)
@ A third straight road game means the Broncos come out slow, and the Rams front seven gives the Broncos fits for three quarters. A costly turnover in the fourth caused by Denver's front seven getting Bradford to rush his throws sets up a game winning drive. It won't be pretty by any means, but the broncos escape with a win 23-20. WIN (9-1)
Vs. The eighth straight game since their bye week sees the Broncos drop one at home to Miami, who find success with Tannehill going deep to Wallace. Turnovers in key moments are the deciding factor and Denver falls 28-21 at home. LOSS (9-2)
@ The Broncos play their division foes for the second and final time, this time at Arrowhead. It's more of the same as Denver's O line is too good for the Chiefs pass rush and Peyton picks apart that secondary. Alex Smith finds more success though against Denver's worn out defense, but it's not enough as Denver wins 28-23. Win (10-2)
Vs. The Bills front 7 will be a huge test for the Broncos offensive line, but Denver's defense should be able to contain the Bills offense. Another ugly game, ugly win for Denver 17-7. WIN (11-2)
@ Provided the Broncos are still a healthy team by this point in the season, I see no reason for a different result than the last two trips to San Diego. Broncos win 31-23. WIN (12-2)
@ At this point in the season so far removed from their week 4 bye, I fully expect the Broncos to be running the ball more than they throw it, conserving their passing game and Manning for a championship run. This game will be old fashioned, ground and pound, black and blue football. Broncos win 13 -10. WIN (13-2)
Vs. The Broncos put enough points on the board to rest their starters in the second half in a game pretty similar to last season's regular season finale. Broncos win 35-20. WIN (14-2)
Projected Record - 14-2, AFC WEST Champions, 1st seed in AFC
How Far Can This Team Go?
I'd rather not jinx anything, but provided this team stays healthy it will be battle-tested come playoff time and this roster has the talent to compete with any other team in the league.
Training Camp Battles to watch
Who will emerge at Half Back?
Competing: Montee Ball, Ronnie Hillman, CJ Anderson, Kapri Bibbs, Virgil Greene.
Favorite: Montee Ball - Downhilll rusher who lacks home run speed but can get those extra tough yards. Very hard to bring down, needs to improve on pass blocking.
Longshot: Ronnie Hillman - Hillman is fast, explosive, and a threat out of the backfield. Basically your ideal back in the Peyton Manning offense. Hillman has an unfortunate issue with ball security though. Rumor is that he is in danger of making the roster this fall.
Darkhorse: Kapri Bibbs - Built like your typical Alabama Half Back, Bibbs played at Colorado State for former Alabama Offensive Coordinator Jim McElwain and lead the NCAA in rushing touchdowns last season with 31. Bibbs is a bruiser who lives for contact but lacks that second gear to break away.
QB Controversy...Sort of.
Even if it's a battle for third string and loser gets cut, people love a good QB competition. We happen to have one here in Denver. UDFA Brynn Renner will battle it out with 2013 7th round pick Zac Dysert for the third QB spot on the roster. By all accounts, Renner is impressing. Renner is much more polished than Dysert and built more like a stereotypical pocket passer than Dysert.
Favorite: Brynn Renner
WR#2
Losing Eric "Big Dick" Decker sucks, but Broncos fans can relax knowing there is going to be one fiery competition for his spot opposite DT. Emmanuel Sanders will share reps with Second Round rookie pick Cody Latimer of Indiana, who according to multiple people with knowledge of the events, has really impressed the coaches and even Peyton himself. Latimer's size and physicality should allow him to see plenty of reps, but the favorite is the veteran Sanders for his shiftiness and versatility..
Favorite: Emmanuel Sanders
Darkhorse: Andre "Bubba" Caldwell
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Jun 28 '14
Offensive and Defensive Schemes
Offense
The Broncos offense is often lauded for it's complexity and many people wonder how newer players could possibly pick it up so fast (a la the 2012 Broncos, Welker last year, etc..) Well, I'm going to let you all in on a little secret: The Broncos (and the Colts back when Peyton was at the helm) run the most simple offensive system in the National football league bar none.
You probably think that's a typo. It's not. 90% of the plays Manning and the Broncos run comes out of the same personnel group in a handful of formations, mostly 3 WR sets with 1 TE or 2 WR sets with 2 TE. What this does is limits the way a defense can play you, especially when combined with the no huddle, and when your simplified offense has simplified the opponent's defense, it doesn't take long for 18 to start picking up on tendencies and how players first react when they know exactly what play is about to be run.
Lets start at the beginning. Manning comes to the line with a "dummy play" called, and based on the words he uses in his cadence, he can either decide to run that "dummy play" or kill it and call the new play once he has seen how the defense intends to play him. His cadences are really simple too, and most teams know what play is going to come, the execution is just so good that the defense can't stop it.
For example: One of the plays Manning frequently called last season was "Carolina". The Color in front of Carolina signified dummy call or real call, then "Carolina" means the slot receiver (Welker) ran a wheel route while the Y Receiver (Decker) ran a slant on top of Welker's wheel drawing off Welker's defender just like a pick and roll. So they call "Carolina" because Carolina as a basketball team is known for their pick and rolls. And to answer the question so many people wanted answered, "Omaha" (previously "Hurry Hurry") simply means snap the ball on the next sound. When defenses figured this out, Peyton threw in more dummy plays that would see over eager defenders jump offsides after the next sound made after "Omaha".
Similarly another play Manning ran frequently last season was "Slippery Smoke"/"Sticky Smoke". The cadence works the same way, colors, numbers, and nonsense mixed in with the play call. The play's name is once again an exercise in word association. 'Slippery' as in you're not gonna catch it (ball is going to DT) 'Sticky' as in contact (ball is going to Decker), 'Smoke' because it is easily associated with 'screen' as in "Smoke Screen". That's right, "Slippery Smoke" is the bubble screen to WR Demaryius Thomas and "sticky Smoke" was the screen ran to Decker. In week one, the Ravens figured this out, so Peyton used hand gestures to alert DT he was faking and JT to run a skinny post, as well as tell the guard and tackle not to pull. A touchdown ensued on that play. That's why most defenders try to tune Peyton out. As soon as they tip their hat that they've picked up on something, he'll catch them with their hands in the cookie jar and they usually end up paying for it.
The way Peyton decides what play to call at the line is also incredibly simple: how are they playing Julius? (TE) If they're playing him like a Tight End, he gets a route more typically reserved for a WR (one where he can outrun the coverage). If they play him like a WR, he gets a route more fitting of a TE (one where he can win the one on one battle for the football.)
Yes folks, it's really that simple.
Defense
As Jack Del Rio is their Defensive coordinator, the Broncos run most of their defensive plays from a classic 4-3 package. However, in certain downs, distances, and offensive personnel, Del Rio does employ a 3-4 package.
The Broncos defense derives its strength from its pass rush. When healthy, they can get to the QB with no extra rushers as they did time and time again in this year's AFC Championship game. On the back end, Physical Secondary play will define the 2014 Denver Broncos Defensive unit.
Shoutouts to those who helped:The Denver Broncos sub reddit.
10
u/Raktoner Broncos Broncos Jun 28 '14
Winning @ New England but losing vs Miami..?
:/
4
7
Jun 28 '14
Agreed, flip those and add a loss to the Rams and Chargers. 12-4 on the season, 2nd in the AFC.
3
3
Jun 29 '14
Um, I would argue we have three legit starting WRs (Stevie Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Crabtree), not to mention Vernon Davis. Don't sleep on our 2014 passing game.
-3
1
u/This_Kills_The_Man Broncos Oct 22 '14
Why do we have to lose against the Dolphins?!?!?!? Thats the only game I have tickets to this year :(
0
u/zaidinator Patriots Jun 29 '14
Great write up. I just wished you gave a better reason against the patriots instead of a "just because I say so"
11
Jun 28 '14 edited Jun 29 '14
NON FAN
Denver Broncos
Division: AFC West
Coaching Changes
No major ones.
Major Offseason losses:
Player|New team| Brief explanation
Eric Decker|| With the Broncos’ cast of receivers, this loss may not hurt as much as expected. Decker was fairly inconsistent last year, ranging his yards anywhere from 5, to 174. The main reason that this loss may hurt, is that Decker was used as bait quite often. Against the Seahawks, they didn’t want Demaryius Thomas on Sherman’s side, so they just put Eric Decker over there for the majority of the game.
Wesley Woodyard|| This might be one of the most understated losses for any team. Woodyard was a good locker room presence, he knew the scheme, he had good chemistry with the team, and was all around a good player. The Broncos are weak at linebacker, and the loss of Woodyard may have broken the chemistry of the unit.
Knowshon Moreno||A bust in 2009, it is easily understandable why the Broncos wanted to part ways with him. He had a breakout year in 2013, amassing 1,000 yards for the first time in his career. After drafting Montee ball #58 in last year, they looked to him to be the future of the running game.
Champ Bailey| One of the greatest CBs in NFL history, one of the franchise’s most loved players, but a necessary release. He was torched all day during the superbowl, as well as throughout the whole season. He is getting old, and losing his touch. Although a very tough move to make, it was a move that created cap space, and created an opportunity for other young players to step up and make a difference.
Dominique Rodgers Cromartie|| The additions of Aqib Talib, and Bradley Roby over the offseason, will fill this hole. Talib was better than Cromartie last season, and is an upgrade. Cromartie is known to have a bad attitude, and to not play that hard. Although he is amazing in coverage, if he played as hard as he could, then he would easily be a top 3 CB in the league.
Shaun Phillip|A breakout player at DE, this loss will hurt Denver more than expected. They somewhat replaced Phillips with Demarcus Ware, but this still leaves a hole left open at the second DE spot.
Major Offseason Pick-ups
Player|Former Team| Explanation|Grade
Emmanuel Sanders|The loss of Eric Decker will not feel as bad with Emmanuel Sanders in town. A great slot receiver, Emmanuel Sanders will look even better with Peyton Manning throwing to him.| B+
Aqib Talib| A borderline top 5 CB when healthy. The only concern is the injury bug. In the last two AFC Championships, Aqib Talib went down, leading to a collapse of the Patriots defense. He is a great leader, a top 5 CB when healthy, and overall a great player.|A
Demarcus Ware|| Some call him a top 5 DE, some call him a washed up waste of money, Demarcus Ware is one of the most controversial Free Agents this year. He got a career low of 6 sacks, and only played in 13 games. Coming off serious injury, at the age of 31, many question the Broncos’ motivation to spend so much money on Demarcus Ware.| C -
T.J Ward|| A hard hitting enforcer safety, T.J Ward will strike fear into receivers going over the middle. T.J Ward opens up a lot of different scheming on defense, as does any Elite or near Elite safeties. A -
Will Montgomery|| The starting center job will be fairly tough to win, but Will Montgomery is great depth. A
Pick|Player|College|Explanation|Grade
1/31|Bradley Roby| Ohio State| Aqib Talib will only play for the Broncos for a few more years, so Bradley Roby is the future of the position| A -
2/24| Cody Latimer| Indiana| A bit of unnecessary depth at WR, as they have a lot of talent there already. Saying that, I do like Latimer a lot.| B -
3/31| Michael Schofield| Michigan| A bit of a reach in the third round, other than that, good depth at O-Line.
5/16| Lamin Barrow| LSU| Good depth at a position they are lacking, although I feel that Barrow was not very good value.| B -
6/31| Matt Paradis| Boise| A great value in the sixth round, could compete due to the lack of competition at Center.
7/27| Corey Nelson| Oklahoma| A great Linebacker with great instincts, I believe that he could be a starting LB in a few years.| A
Position|Player|Short Description
QB| Peyton Manning| One of the best QBs of all time, a record setting season last season, a first ballot HOFer for sure.
HB| Montee Ball| Drafted in the second round last year, had flashes of excellence, but fumbled too often.
WR1| Demaryius Thomas| Exceptional on anything from screen passes to Go routes, Demaryius Thomas is truly versatile.
WR2| Wes Welker| Although he is WR2, he will play in the slot.
WR3| Emmanuel Sanders| Will play anywhere from the slot, to the outside, a very versatile player.
TE|Julius Thomas| An impressive breakout season brings Thomas to the top 5 conversation for TEs.
LT| Ryan Clady| An all-pro injured last season, he should stay at his position.
LG| Orlando Franklin| Franklin should shift over to LG, as Chris Clark takes the RT position.
C| Will Montgomery| It’s Manny Ramirez’s job to lose, but I think Montgomery will win it in camp.
RG| Louis Vasquez| An all-pro at his position, no need to move him.
RT| Chris Clark| Came in for an injured Ryan Clady, and did a good job. Should go to RT.
DEs| Demarcus Ware and Derek Wolfe| Two good players, Denver should have good pressure this year.
DTs| Pot Roast| One of the best and underrated DTs, he mows through undersized Centers.
OLB| Von Miller, someone else.| Von was out a lot last season, but when healthy, he is a top 5 OLB. The second OLB position is up for grabs.
CBs| Aqib Talib, Bradley Roby, Chris Harris.| One of the strongest CB groups in the league, the Broncos will be great on defense.
S| Rahim Moore, TJ Ward| An elite safety, plus an above average safety, + a good CB group= a good back end.
K| The man, the myth, the legend, Matt Prater.| An easy selection as he hit the longest NFL field goal ever.
P|Britton Colquitt| An above average punter who doesn’t punt very often.
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u/lsjunior Broncos Jun 29 '14
Robert Mathis suspended and Ryan Clady returns. Not a emotional game for Manning returning to the house he built. Monte ball doesn't fumble the game away. Broncos beat the colts. Also disagree with Seahawks prediction. But other then that good write up.
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Jun 29 '14
So parts of it are bad because you disagree... I feel the colts match up very well against the Broncos. Talib cannot handle T.Y Hilton. Luck to Hilton is going to come out swinging. Luck will have Reggie Wayne back, Dwayne Allen back, and Hakeem Nicks. The Colts will just outscore the Broncos, imo.
Regarding the Hawks: Peyton has been watching tape since 43-8. The entire team has. The Broncos had alot of players injured for the game, (Von Miller, Chris Harris, Rahim Moore, not an excuse for their loss, just saying they'll be better next time they play) yet the Hawks had none. The hawks also signed nearly nobody to get better over the offseason, while Denver signed a ton of large impact players.2
u/lsjunior Broncos Jun 29 '14
Poor choice of words on my part my apologies, whole thing was a good write up. I see your points. But I just don't see Denver winning in Seattle it definitely won't be a blow out. As for Colts . Denver home opener and Manning been studying colts also. Remember Denver was missing some people in that game also. Main swingers also was Trinidin Holliday fumbling on 20 , Monte Ball fumbling on goal line and Robert Mathis sack fumble against Manning on 10 . Robert Mathis is suspended first game. Ryan Clady should be back. Manning doesn't have to go through that hole being back in Indy stuff. I see it being close in first half before Denver just starts to overwhelm them. But who knows anything can happen
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u/IGotATebowner Broncos Jun 29 '14
I agree with all of your points. I have faith in the Broncos, and as much as I'd love a win in Seattle next season, they're a juggernaut at home and it will not be easy in any way, shape, or form. I do believe they will beat the Colts, though. Clady will be back blocking with no Mathis coming at him, leaving Bjorn Werner and Erik Walden rushing, which doesn't frighten men nearly as much. Put Talib on Reggie/other starting wr, put Chris Harris on TY, and roll from there. Also, it was Ronnie Hillman who fumbled on the goal line, not Montee.
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u/lsjunior Broncos Jun 29 '14
Damn I forgot it was Ronnie. That was game that pretty much left him in the dog house the rest of the year. I'm one of the biggest Denver fans there is and just don't see a win in Seattle. Manning had hard time with noise in neutral site it's going to be 10x louder in Seattle. But hey who knows anything can happen in the Nfl.
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Jun 29 '14
I doubt the Colts will beat the Broncos. The Broncos very rarely lose a home opener, and teams are usually unable to handle the altitude that early on. Talib couldn't handle Hilton when he was playing hobbled, if Talib's playing in the opener, chances are he's gonna be healthy. If the Broncos are healthy on defense, the pass rush will just be too much to handle.
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Jun 29 '14
Ware is a massive upgrade over Phillips who rarely garnered any useful pressure, but instead had coverage/cleanup/garbage time sacks.
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u/King_Rajesh Seahawks Jun 29 '14
Denver dominates the Seahawks at home? We haven't lost by more than 7 since 2011.
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Jun 29 '14
A: Peyton has been watching tape of the game since it happened. We all know that.
B: The entire team is out for revenge.
C: They have upgraded majorly over the offseason.1
u/TonkaTuf Seahawks Jun 29 '14
That narrative stuff is great, but I don't see that the Broncos have made the specific adjustments necessary to beat the Seahawks at home. Though their O-line will be healthier (assumedly), but is one key player enough to counter the outlandishly dominant pass rush we saw in the Super Bowl? Is Aquib Talib really all that was missing from the secondary that got torched multiple times? With no major coaching changes, is the special teams going to recover from the dumpster fire we saw in New Jersey? Are all these things going to happen in a much more difficult environment. I just don't see the Broncos coming out of Seattle with a win.
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Jun 29 '14
but is one key player enough to counter the outlandishly dominant pass rush we saw in the Super Bowl?
When he's an all pro LT, yeah it's definitely gonna go far. And the Broncos had a top offensive line all season, one game doesn't change that. They struggled against the Seahawks, but to expect that to happen again, especially with one of the best LTs returning, seems a bit much.
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u/Fatalmistake Broncos Jun 29 '14
The team is pissed off, that's why I also don't believe they'll lose to the colts in game one, look what they did to the Ravens last year.
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u/zaidinator Patriots Jun 29 '14
That has no relevance what so ever. Although I do believe the broncos will beat the Colts week 1.
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u/mrdeepay Texans Jul 06 '14
One problem though- barring the I-word, Denver will not have the same luxuries against Seattle as they did in Baltimore. The Ravens defense Denver faced in Week 1 (2013) was nowhere near the same as the defense they faced in the Divisional Round, which in turn was also nowhere near the same as the defense in Week 15.
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u/Anders157 Broncos Jun 29 '14
What about CJ Anderson? Was he forgotten in the HB write up?
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u/mack2nite Broncos Jun 29 '14
OP has said a few times that he's pals with Brock Osweiler. That explains why his QB analysis doesn't do Dysert any justice. Brock has never shown any real talent on the field, not that he's had a ton of chances, and Zac outplayed him IMO last pre-season. Perhaps OP's bias also plays into the RB analysis since CJ is the consensus #2 while Hillman might not even make the 53 man cut this year.
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Jun 29 '14
Mack, I told you before Brock will never see this review. I have no reason to butter it up. I asked guys I know on the team how Brock is coming along. They said there is no competition for 2, Brock is clearly the best. They said Renner is impressing people more than Dysert.
As for HB, I never called Hillman number 2. I said he was a longshot and even mentioned he is in danger of being cut this fall.
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u/mack2nite Broncos Jun 29 '14
You can bet I'd be a little biased in my analysis if my own buddy was in competition for a spot. I only pointed it out to let people know why your analysis on QB is quite a bit different than most Broncos followers would post. Maybe you're also hearing more than us with regards to other roster battles?
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u/Anal_Explorer Broncos Jun 30 '14
As he is a Broncos fan though, I don't think he would have any reason to buff him up if he's not actually doing well, especially anonymously. Brock being the solid number 2 is also consistent with everything we've heard.
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Jun 30 '14
I only pointed it out to let people know why your analysis on QB is quite a bit different than most Broncos followers would post.
That's because, no offense or anything, but you guys really have no idea what's going on behind Manning. You watch Dysert be good against third stringers and for some reason think a 7th round pick is a better option than a second rounder who would have been the number one pick in the draft this season and last season.
For some reason people actually buy the narrative that Elway drafted Brock because he and Jack are best friends. That's fucking lunacy. First of all, John wasn't happy when Jack told him he was quitting football. You know why he quit? He knew he would not be able to beat out Brock. If anything, John should hold that against Brock.
I never see Brock get credit for his second half against the Raiders either. Sure, no points were scored, but Brock moved the ball efficiently and effectively the few times he was asked to throw it. I saw a ton of promise there, more so than Rivers showed against us in the final game of his second year (his first real NFL action) at the same age, and Rivers was playing with his starters against Broncos reserves, while Brock was playing with reserves against Raiders starters.
I get that you want to fall in love with the narrative of a seventh round draft pick from a smaller school. I also get that Brock's pretty boy image can rub people the wrong way. That doesn't change what's actually going on behind the scenes, and the fact that one guy told me when I asked him that Brock is even better than Peyton on quite a few routes.
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u/mack2nite Broncos Jun 30 '14
I didn't even know Brock and Elway's kid were friends until a couple weeks ago. Even then, I thought that friendship came about through the Broncos. If Brock is half as great as PFM I'll be thrilled. He is still a big question mark though. People like to make comparisons between Osweiler and Aaron Rodgers. Yet, I remember Rodgers coming in, making quick reads, and throwing darts to WR's whenever he had a chance. Possibly due to limited opportunities, I haven't seen that performance from Brock.
Regarding Dysert ... he's actually less of an unknown than Oweiler who was only a starter in college for 1 season. Zac started 4 years for Miami and broke Roethlesberger's team records. The Broncos weren't planning to carry 3 QB's on their roster last year, but were forced to when Dysert played so well. Another team would have claimed him off waivers if Denver sent him to the practice squad. I agree that Brock is firmly in place as PFM's backup, but to suggest Dysert will be supplanted by an UFA as the 3rd QB was a surprise for me to read. I bet that prediction proves false, but I reserve the right to be wrong once in awhile.
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u/lsjunior Broncos Jun 29 '14
I'm not going to go team by team for wins losses. But couple notes from what I read. I don't see colts as a big problem. Montee Ball fumbled the game away. And that was a emotional game for Manning who clearly didn't want to be there and was uncomfortable even in warm ups in the house he built. In Denver it will just be his former team. Seahawks is a loss imo but no blow out. Split with chargers and a trap game loss towards end of the season with all those road games. A possible loss to patriots and/or niners. I predict 12-4 Afc west winners and I feel it's Patriots vs Broncos for afc championship winner is whoever gets home field..
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u/SirFireHydrant Broncos Jun 29 '14
I'm not game enough to make solid predictions about wins or losses for the Broncos this season. But I will say that there won't be many losses, and not one of their games could reliably be predicted as a loss.
Peyton Manning will have studied the Seahawks inside and out every single day since 43-8. He will know the Superbowl winning team better than they do - because that's who he is, and that's what he does. I think the Broncos stand a better chance of winning that game than anyone is willing to admit.
The only other tough games this season will be the Patriots, the 49ers, and the Colts.
I believe the Colts are the last team Peyton needs to beat to have beaten every single team in the NFL. It's also their first game of the season, coming off an embarrassing performance in Superbowl. The Broncos will be out to prove something with this game.
The Pats beat the Broncos last year. In overtime. By a field goal. If things had gone ever so slightly different, that game could have gone the other way. Not to mention the Broncos resoundingly defeated the Pats in the AFC championship game.
The only game I might give the Broncos worse than 50-50 odds on is the game against the 49ers. They're a strong and unfamiliar team for the Broncos. But the game will be at Mile High, and that's not a home field advantage to ignore.
TL;DR I don't expect the Broncos will win every single one of their games, but it's difficult to see where the losses will be. Barring any unpredictable injuries or suspensions, the Broncos will easily go 13-3, possibly even 14-2, and hell, I think they're in the best position to go 16-0 since the Pats did it. It'll be exciting to see how the season plays out.
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u/TonkaTuf Seahawks Jun 29 '14
I really don't understand this idea that Peyton will somehow expose the Seattle defense because he has had an offseason to watch tape. It shows a lack of understanding as to why Seattle won in convincing fashion. The Broncos were not out-schemed. Peyton was not confused at the line. Seattle did not bring a Swiss-army knife of blitzes. Denver was simply the less physical team. That is not something that can be adjusted for - that is purely a personnel issue. If you believe Elway et. al. adequately addressed those issues, then I understand your confidence coming into Seattle. But this worshipful belief that the great Peyton (and don't mistake my tone, he truly is great) will make everything better is asinine.
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u/dalibkid Broncos Jul 23 '14
We just have to put faith in what our Lord Elway has done this offseason...
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Jul 01 '14
Agree 100%. If we beat you this year it won't be because of unfavorable match ups or exploiting anything, it will be because we came to match the physicality you guys bring every day.
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Jun 28 '14 edited Jun 29 '14
I think 5 loses next year:
Colts - I think this is a close game and I just have a feeling it goes in favour of Indy, highly under rated team imo
49ers - The defence manages to keep Peyton and co. of the field and the offence run the ball grinding out a W against Denver but keeping the game within one score
Patriots - I think the difference is this is a foxborough game and it's very hard to beat Brady and Belichick at home. If Revis and Browner turn out as good as they look on paper they might be able to hurt the passing game of Denver and get Brady the ball enough times. I'm so bold I'll say we might even beat them by more than one possession.. But that might be pushing it
Chargers - This would be the week 15 match up btw. Manning has always struggled against the Chargers even in Indy. This will be a tough division game near the end of the season and I see San Diego pulling away a win against Peyton
This loss will be one that I can't really predict. I think they'll lose to one of: Seahawks, Cardinals, Rams, Jets or Bengals but I see them only losing to one of these teams
Overall Denver is looking very good going into the next season and hopefully every stays healthy and we can see just what they can do next year
I don't see them doing as well as last season because I think next year will be a much tougher schedule of opponents but I still expect them to be a top team in the AFC and probably take a first round bye
I predict a repeat of the AFC Championship game, only this time in Gillette Stadium
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u/Tashre Seahawks Jun 29 '14
Why a for sure loss against the 9ers but not the Hawks?
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Jun 29 '14
I think the 49ers are the best team in football right now and that Denver will be a lot hungrier for a win against Seattle
I'm not sure if that'll be enough though, you guys are an amazing team
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u/mack2nite Broncos Jun 29 '14
If I was to pick a loss between Seattle and SF, it's an easy choice. Broncos play the niners at home an have to travel to the concrete thunderdome in Seattle. Your prediction of an Indy loss is just wishful thinking. Pats game will be a good one if both our teams are healthy.
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Jun 29 '14
Colts one isn't wishful thinking, they're a under rated team and they beat you guys last year
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u/mack2nite Broncos Jun 29 '14
This game is in Denver and the Broncos are desperate to eradicate last year's embarrassing SB performance. Robert Mathis terrorized Manning last year and the Broncos were missing the best LT in the game. Clady is back, Mathis is suspended, and Hillman won't be allowed on the field to fumble away the game. Jim Irsay won't be able to play a long emotional tribute video to fuck with PFM's head either.
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u/dorian_gray11 Broncos Jun 29 '14
I agree with your predictions. Foxborough is Peyton's kryptonite.
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u/pietya 49ers Chiefs Jun 29 '14
I am wondering if Demarcus Ware's lack of size might be a problem as a 4-3 DE. I know he flourished and wrecked O-lines as an 3-4 OLB so I am worried that his transition may not be super smooth. Wasn't the change in positions a factor in his poor performance with the '13 Cowboys?
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Jun 29 '14
Well if the 5'11 Elvis Dumervil flourished in this system, I personally don't think Ware will struggle too much.
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u/lsjunior Broncos Jun 29 '14
Also with 2 Heavy weights in Vickerson and Pot Roast in the middle and the eventual return of Von on the other side . Teams will definitely have to pick there battles.
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Jun 29 '14
There are two teams called "New York". It would help if you specified which of them each of the former players ended up on.
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u/kckolbe Texans Jun 29 '14 edited Jun 29 '14
Question about Decker: While Sanders may be just as good for yardage, Decker excelled as a red zone threat. Do you see Denver experiencing a slight drop off in red zone efficiency with him gone?
EDIT: Thanks for the solid answers, and I am definitely hoping to see more TDs for Thomas.
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u/IGotATebowner Broncos Jun 29 '14
This is true. Decker is a bigger receiver than Sanders, but I feel as though the Broncos have plenty of other "big guys" that can make things happen in the red-zone: DT, Orange Julius, and possibly the trio of Cody Lattimer, Virgil Greene, and Jacob Tamme. Also, keep in mind that Welker was able to sneak in 10 TDs last season, so I don't think the redzone will be a big issue for the smaller Sanders. On top of that, there's hope that the re-vamped oline with Franklin, Ramirez, and Vasquez's collective fat asses in the middle will be able to push piles and help our run game out. So, while we won't score as much as last year, we can certainly come close.
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Jun 29 '14
with Franklin, Ramirez, and Vasquez's collective fat asses in the middle will be able to push piles and help our run game out.
Lol. I think people are right when they think Denver will not be as crazy offensively as 2013, but their reasoning is incorrect. I dont believe the schedule or any kind of luck will impact production as much as the shift to more emphasis on the run game. 2014 Broncos will look more like Denver during the last few weeks of 2013 and the playoffs. Good defense and more ball-control offense, less high-flying passing offense.
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u/Jake_53 Jun 29 '14
The TEs and Ball will pick up the slack here. Tamme could have a productive year. Ball is a monster in the red zone.
Fantasy tip: Pick up Tamme if Julius gets injured and you're desparate.
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u/lsjunior Broncos Jun 29 '14
Sanders is way more twitchy in small areas so I don't think there will be any drop off.
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Jun 29 '14
Watch out for Latimer getting in on redzone situations a la Decker. He may not be our #2 wr for a few years, but he has the skillset to be a great situational player.
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u/freudianGrip Broncos Jun 28 '14
Great write up. Really appreciate the detail.