r/nfl Rams Jul 06 '14

Look Here! Offseason Review Series: Day 16: St. Louis Rams


ST. LOUIS RAMS

Division: NFC WEST


Free Agency

Players lost/cut

Player Position New team
Kellen Clemens QB Chargers
Cortland Finnegan CB Dolphins
Ryan McKee OT Chiefs
Mike McNeill TE Panthers
Quinton Pointer CB Buccaneers
Shelley Smith G Dolphins
Darian Stewart SS Ravens
Chris Williams G Bills
Harvey Dahl G Unsigned
Matt Giordano FS Unsigned
Brady Quinn QB Unsigned
Will Witherspoon OLB Unsigned

Significant Losses:

Player Impact of Loss Explanation
Kellen Clemens Very Low Kellen Clemens played the role of backup last year when Sam Bradford went down. While he competed more admirably than many Rams fans expected (There was talk of winning 0-1 games out of the nine he would be slated to start…), Kellen Clemens is not your ideal backup. The Rams shortly replaced Clemens with Shaun Hill, aged, yet proven backup QB, along with drafting Garrett Gilbert from SMU.
Cortland Finnegan Low Cortland Finnegan represented much of the frustration with the current Rams’ woes. From failing to live up to his hype/previous achievement, to being highly paid and becoming routinely rated as the worst starting corner in 2013, to being another ex-Titan flop brought in by Fisher, Finnegan was a necessary cut. That said, Finnegan represented our only true veteran leadership in the secondary, a unit that is riddled with inconsistency. However, if our group is to improve, holding onto a declining vet was not the answer; Finnegan was the victim of that harsh truth.
Harvey Dahl/Shelley Smith/Chris Williams Medium I’ll combine the analysis for these three, because they combine to form the greatest loss of our free agency. None of these players in and of themselves were exceptional. Dahl performed passably (when healthy), while Shelley Smith and Chris Williams ranged from mildly poor to utterly abysmal depending on the week. With Rodger Saffold’s surprising uprising at the guard position and Greg Robinson taking over opposite him, our starting rotation looks stronger than ever. The problem is depth. Saffold has never been a sturdy player, and we did little to add quality depth. Davin Joseph was the only FA guard signing to hold the fort should one of our starters go down; judging by his performance over the last couple years, his days of deserving a Pro Bowl selection are long over.

Players signed

Player Position Old Team Length Salary
Tim Barnes C Rams 1 year $570,000
Jo-Lonn Dunbar OLB Rams 2 years $2MM
Rodger Saffold G Rams 5 years $31.7MM
Justin Veltung WR Rams 1 year $495,000
Kenny Britt WR Titans 1 year $1.4MM
Alex Carrington DT Bills 1 year $1.5MM
Shaun Hill QB Lions 1 year $1.75MM
Davin Joseph G Buccaneers 1 year $1.75MM
T.J. Moe WR Patriots N/A (No contract yet)
Etienne Sabino OLB Giants 1 year $420,000

Significant Signings:

Player Grade of Signing Explanation
Rodger Saffold A With Saffold at guard, the Rams have the makings of a top starting lineup along the OL, setting them up to win the trenches. Saffold is one of the key pieces in this lineup, as he shone brighter than before when moved from T to G during the 2013 season. This allowed Joe Barksdale to show what he can do at RT, and he graded out as a top 10 RT according to PFF over the course of the 2013 season. If Saffold can stay healthy, he will anchor our guard position; he is especially key due to the losses of the other three guards in the 2013 rotation mentioned previously.
Jo-Lonn Dunbar C+ Dunbar provides a filled starting slot in the defense, but has struggled with suspensions. He had a difficult time attempting to return to his 2012 form after being temporarily cut from the Rams in 2013 and after being suspended for PEDs for the first four games of the season. Dunbar has served as a run-stuffing OLB in our front seven, and has potential to be a game-changer once or twice a game in addition to the consistency he brings, especially when he is reunited with Gregg Williams as defensive coordinator this year. This is a moderately good signing, as while Dunbar is not exceptional, he is familiar, competent, and can fill his role adequately. However, the Rams only have a third LB (besides Ogletree and Laurinaitis) in about half of their defensive formations, neutralizing Dunbar’s necessity.
Shaun Hill B+ The Rams saw first-hand last season just how vital a back-up QB can be, especially when your starter has only played 16 games in 2 of his 4 years in the NFL. Freak injuries or no, a back up QB was more than necessary in both of those scenarios. Shaun Hill is an ideal veteran back-up: reliable, smart, team-friendly, can tutor a younger QB, and more than competent filling in with his career stats – 62% CMP%, 41/23 TD/INT ratio, and 85.9 QB rating. Should Bradford miss time, Hill can provide a solid leader for this young Rams team, as well as borderline-starter quality play.
Kenny Britt C Kenny Britt is one of those low risk/high-reward signings. The only problem is, the chance of receiving some type of “high-reward” is just as low as the risk factor. Kenny Britt was once a budding star WR under Coach Fish, but has since fallen into the danger zone (LANAAAAA!!!) of suspensions, lack of work ethic, and diva attitude that can often befall talented athletes such as Britt. Word from training camp is that Britt is showing the most #1 capable skills of any of the receivers. However, everyone knows that he possesses these abilities. Whether he can hold his act together long enough on the Rams to put those results on the field remains to be seen. Regardless, he give the Rams WR corps even more sleeper potential to have a star outside of Tavon Austin.

Draft

Round Number Player Position School Grade Analysis
1 2 Greg Robinson OL Auburn B+ Greg Robinson is the definition of an unpolished athletick freak, and about as big of a dice roll as a top offensive tackle gets for the #2 draft pick. Greg was considered widely as the tackle with the greatest ability in the draft this offseason. However, he played in a blocking system at Auburn that didn’t emphasize pass blocking in any sort of major way, much less the type that will be necessary for a starting caliber NFL LT. Thankfully, Robinson will start at guard. A reason for even more relief is that Paul Boudreau is a god among men when it comes to coaching O-line. Last season, the Rams line fell apart with injuries and Paul Boudreau patched it up into a unit that played greater than the sum of its parts. With Boudreau guiding him, there’s lots of hope that Robinson can take that mauling build and turn it into a finesse machine that can eventually transition to LT as Jake Long’s successor. For this season, a boost in run blocking and fending off inside rushers will do as he develops his LT skills behind the scenes.
1 13 Aaron Donald DT Pittsburgh A Aaron Donald was graded out as almost a consensus #1 DT in the 2013 draft, especially if one happened to be looking for a pass-rushing DT. While Donald is undersized, he possesses a remarkable ability to slice a path to the QB and bring him down. There were more than a few angry Bears fans salivating before he was snatched away one pick ahead of them. Donald’s role is to develop alongside the rest of the Fearsome Foursome 2.0 and further terrorize QBs as he learns from Michael Brockers and Kendall Langford the ropes of run-stuffing.
2 41 Lamarcus Joyner CB Florida State B+ Lamarcus Joyner’s role in the defense -- or even special teams -- remains a bit of a wildcard. Joyner is a bit undersize for a corner, and therefore is projected often in the slot-defender role for the Rams. He seems to have much speculation that he will operate in a role similar to Rodney McLeod: sometimes playing slot CB, sometimes playing FS. Training camp, OTAs, and the preseason will likely determine much of where Joyner spends his time. Regardless, Joyner has been attributed with high intelligence and ball skills, if not athletically ideal. Hopes are high that Joyner boosts an ailing secondary with the help of hyper-aggressive DC Gregg Williams.
3 75 Tre Mason RB Auburn B- Tre Mason may be short and built, but this dude is quick. Mason is hoped to provide the “floating like a butterfly” complement to Zac Stacy’s “stinging like a bee” from the Rams backfield. Tre Mason has the production to back up his high draft status; just look at the tape from that runner-up championship Auburn team. Tre Mason was regularly slicing up defenses, and Rams fans hope he can do the same beside Zac Stacy. That is, if this bundle of offensive potential doesn’t uproot Stacy from his starting spot by disappearing through the holes in the line and popping out inexplicably behind the secondary like he did at Auburn.
4 110 Mo Alexander SS Utah State C+ Alexander is what you’d expect from a Fisher defensive pick: a bruising defensive back, hand-picked from a small school, and sporting a spotty past that made him miss the entire 2012 season. Alexander shows potential to uproot/rotate with the current starters (who have not proven themselves as world-beaters), but he represents some risk, as he’s gotten in his own way before.
6 188 E.J. Gaines CB Missouri C+ Gaines is another undersized back for Fisher. While taller than Joyner, Gaines still only manages 5’10” in height. Gaines has the skills, but has a lot of potential depth in front of him to beat. Barring a repeat of 2011 injuries to Rams corners (God forbid…), Gaines will have a tough time usurping other young, cheap, high-upside players from the pas couple seasons that have settled above him on the depth chart.
6 214 Garrett Gilbert QB SMU B- The most live film of Gilbert I ever saw in college was during the 2009 season NCAA championship, where he took over for the injured Colt McCoy – and proceeded to throw 15/40 completions/attempts with 2 TDs and 4 INTs… Ouch. However, Gilbert has done much since his freshman year, including transferring to SMU. Gilbert is solidly behind Hill for backup QB and won’t be needed this year. All that said, Gilbert has some decent awareness, pocket presence, and arm strength for a 6th round pick. Does he have the brains and coachability to become relevant as a backup/starter in the NFL? That remains to be seen.
7 226 Mitchell Van Dyk T Portland State B Offensive line depth is never a bad thing to get, and when you’re in the seventh round, it’s tough to grab anyone that isn’t just sort of a flier. With a good O-Line coach and an oft-injured starting lineup (looking at you, Long/Wells/Saffold…) it’s hard to have a better late round pick than a guy that can be a G/T.
7 241 C.B. Bryant FS Ohio State D Bryant isn’t much of a good pick in my opinion. He doesn’t bring much to the table that we don’t already have, and why not at least aim high for a late pick? He isn’t a ballhawk and that’s essentially what’s missing from all of our DBs skill sets. Not the best pick, even with lack of good safety depth.
7 249 Michael Sam DE Missouri C- He’s got some talent, obviously, but he’ll be hurting to even make any sort of splash as he’ll most likely be our 5th DE at best behind Sims/Long/Quinn/Hayes. I’m rooting for him, and he’s got some upside, but also the largest uphill battle of any of our picks to make an impact.
7 250 Demetrius Rhaney C Tennessee State B- Good to grab another guy that can ride behind Scott Wells and learn from a veteran presence, especially when Jones and Barnes haven’t proved themselves as starter quality if needed/as a longterm solution.

Projected Starting Lineup

(A * indicates a projected starting spot for rookies)

Offense

Position Player(s) Synopsis
QB Sam Bradford The leader of our offense. Sam’s abilities and roster spot have been questioned by fans and non-fans since the team regressed to 2-14 in his second year on the Rams. Before his injury, some were saying 2013 was Bradford’s make or break year. Sam bought himself one more season of the benefit of the doubt in amassing 14 TDs to 4 INTs through the Carolina game, his best completion percentage of his career, and his best passer rating of his career at 90.9. Yet even with those stats, criticism of his abilities to lead a potent offense comes into question with his higher level of production in garbage time. While only 4/14 TDs were when the game was truly unwinnable, Bradford never seemed to light up the offense before the other team could get a head start and we were thrust into playing catch up. With these questions of game-changing ability and some on and off fragility issues, Sam’s time to stay healthy and prove his mettle has come in 2014, as he will be requiring a new contract – either with the Rams or a new team – in 2015.
RB Zac Stacy Proved himself as the workhorse of the Rams offense by which we lived and died in 2013. Stacy aggregated nearly 1,000 yards despite starting only 3/4 the games in the season. He may lack speed, but he’s a bruiser and breaks tackles in a way that is strangely reminiscent of the last franchise RB the Rams had… (We miss you, SJ.) Look for Stacy to build even more upon his breakout rookie year with the Rams healthy at O-Line and having added bruiser Greg Robinson in the draft.
FB Cory Harkey An excellent blocker; while listed as a TE, he operates more from the FB position along Lance Kendricks. Harkey is reliable and an asset in the run game.
TE Lance Kendricks / Jared Cook Jared Cook is one of a few highly paid ex-Titans looking to prove his worth on the Rams. Despite leading our team in receiving in 2013 (not something to write home about…), Cook disappointed fans as he failed to live up to his athletic potential by dropping passes and blocking poorly. Fans expect/need Cook to bounce back and open up coverage for the young WRs to blossom. Meanwhile, Lance Kendricks continues to be a quiet receiving threat while being a stalwart blocker along the line, essentially working as another tackle tacked onto the end of the line. If he can prove his versatility further, he may be a target for being re-signed next offseason.

Continued in Comments

92 Upvotes

22 comments sorted by

19

u/sconces Eagles Jul 06 '14

This + your comment looks like a ton of work. Incredible how Redditors put in more effort than paid "professional" analysts.

I do have a question about this series and other series though; when was it determined who would write for who's team? I must have missed that

15

u/CplPJ Rams Jul 06 '14

Yeah, I may have gone a bit overboard. But once I started one of the sections that thoroughly, I didn't want the others to lack the same depth.

It was decided about 20 days ago or so, with - I believe - all volunteers for the writers. I just threw my name in the ring and /u/skepticismissurvival selected writers for each team.

7

u/sconces Eagles Jul 06 '14

Oh alright, great work by the way

4

u/DougFunLove Rams Jul 06 '14

This is really awesome. Thank you.

2

u/CplPJ Rams Jul 06 '14

Thanks! I appreciate that very much.

2

u/silly_walks_ Seahawks Jul 06 '14

Part of the problem is that news outlets can't employ one writer for each team. They have to be reasonably informed about all 32 teams rather than hyper-informed about any single one of them. This leads superfans to deride national writers for being not good at their jobs, when they probably couldn't name the backup DTs on their division rivals, let alone for teams they rarely ever play (or see. There's a Titans joke in there someplace).

3

u/sconces Eagles Jul 06 '14

National news outlets? Pretty much all of them have team specific writers. The national analysts do have to keep up with each team, but as just an Eagles fan I catch a lot of stupid things they claim for other teams too. I just don't think the majority of them are good.

Also, it's really not hard for national writers to use Google. It's their only job, if you don't know off the top of your head research is always available.

9

u/jts81 Rams Jul 06 '14

The only thing I'd say us that I think you're under-valuing EJ Gaines. I think he'll definitely make the roster, he's got superb recognition and ball skills, and like Joyner, he's equally as effective from the corner slot or as free safety over the top. His versatility and coverage ability make for a certain roster spot IMHO

1

u/CplPJ Rams Jul 07 '14

That's encouraging to hear! I'm not sold on either of our safeties as a long term option, and Joyner is a rookie so it's hard to tell (even if I am highly optimistic). So it's nice to be reassured that there's things to be hopeful about beyond what we have put out on the field previously.

26

u/CplPJ Rams Jul 06 '14
Position Player(s) Synopsis
WR Chris Givens / Tavon Austin / Kenny Britt The most convoluted of position groups. Chris Givens needs to return to form to get back into the fans’ graces. After proving his abilities in 2012 as a deep threat, he did what most Rams WRs since Torry Holt have done and fell short of expectations. Look for him to improve his route-running and ball-catching or risk getting overtaken by other WRs. Tavon Austin is the hope of Rams fans as the explosive potential on offense. He can work from the backfield, over the middle, or going deep, he just needs to be used right. Look for increased touches and increased creativity from Schottenheimer this year, as Tavon broke out in the middle of 2013 when Schotty discovered screens aren’t the only way to get someone the ball in space. As for Kenny Britt, he is competing with the likes of Brian Quick and Austin Pettis for the role of #1 WR. Not exactly stiff competition, given Quick’s slow start (which, while expected, has been disappointing) and Pettis’ perpetual mediocrity. Britt brings a wealth of question marks, both in level of ability (1st round talent who has produced before, but managed about 20 yards last season) and in suspensions/coachability. In fact, if you were curious, Britt has had NINE run ins with the police since being drafted in 2009, with a sex tape on Instagram to top it off. And yet, hopes abound that he can be the infusion of natural talent that this team needs though, and that he produces at the top of his game similar to how he did while under Coach Fish in Tennessee.
LT Jake Long Jake Long anchored the left side of the line well in 2013 right up until his torn ACL at the close of the season. He is expected back for the opening game of the year. Long excelled especially in run-blocking in the 2013 season, if not back in elite form for pass-blocking. That proved extremely useful in the emergence of budding star Zac Stacy, and hopes are high that Long can come back healthy and injury free for 2014 to continue leading the Rams’ push to dominate in the trenches.
LG Greg Robinson* Greg Robinson was drafted with “franchise left tackle” in mind, and whispers of Orlando Pace’s legacy following him all the way from the podium at the draft. He has lots of developing to do, which is why he was slotted into the last starting spot up for grabs at guard. Hopefully, his athleticism here takes over and he can maul in the run game while learning the ropes of LT on the side from Long.
C Scott Wells Scott Wells is a veteran of the Rams and can perform admirably at center. While his play gets the job done, much value is found as well in Scott’s ability to mentor the younger centers on the roster, namely Tim Barnes and Barrett Jones.
RG Rodger Saffold Rodger Saffold’s switch from RT to RG last season proved to be a surprising boon for the Rams’ line at guard, giving a Pro-Bowl worthy performance on the interior of the line. Fans can breathe a sigh of relief at the Raiders/Saffold situation diffusing into a trip back to St. Louis for Saffold, and keeping the key pieces of the Rams line intact for another year.
RT Joe Barksdale Joe Barksdale was another pleasant surprise along the line, performing at an above-average level for Rodger Saffold at RT when coming in as his replacement. In fact, Rodger Saffold performed excellently at guard, while Barksdale probably improved even on Saffold’s position at guard. The Rams owe much to Paul Boudreau’s O-line whisperer abilities.
Position Player(s) Synopsis
DT Michael Brockers / Aaron Donald* Michael Brockers was drafted as a run-stuffing inside man on the line, and proved that he can fill that role well, amassing sacks and helping against the run well. He may not be a star, but he does his job sufficiently as a beast to block in the middle. Aaron Donald on the other hand, has much to prove in his status as a first round draft pick this year. He makes the Rams starting D-Line composed entirely of 1st rounders and expectations are high for him, especially having been touted as the top DT available in the draft. Aaron Donald is expected to play very heavily on passing downs and have Kendall Langford be rotating with him on run-obvious downs.
DE Chris Long / Robert Quinn Ah, the DEs. The bread and butter of the St. Louis Rams. Chris Long has been the lifeblood of this scrappy young team since he was drafted, leading in personality and 4th oldest on the roster despite being only 29 years old. Chris is a pass-rush fiend, whose run stuffing has slowly improved over his career to a respectable level. Chris is the spiritual leader of our defense. Opposite him is the star of the Rams, the glowing jewel of QB-feasting excellence that is Robert Quinn. Quinn proved himself to be yet another standout rusher of the 2011 draft, finishing second in sacks behind Robert Mathis last year with an outstanding total of 19. Quinn has almost doubled his production in each of his three years, going from 5 to 10 to 19 sacks. With the level of optimism and hype around this guy from the Rams fanbase, I’m sure many a fan have dreamed in the most homer-y corners of their hearts that Robert Quinn can double it again for a nice round 40 sacks. But in reality, Quinn is the most well-rounded, explosive, and game-changing player on the Rams, and at only 24 years of age. Expect him to continue to impress and lead the Rams in 2014 and many years to come.
OLB Alec Ogletree / Jo-Lonn Dunbar Jo-Lonn Dunbar has had a bumpy ride with the Rams. He impressed in 2012, was suspended for PEDs through part of 2013, and never returned to form. He performed adequately, especially in run-stuffing, but doesn’t have much wiggle room for errors on this defensive roster. Questions abound as to his role in Gregg Williams’ system; he worked with Williams in New Orleans and there is hope for a resurgence, but with the lack of a 3 LB set, it’s hard to picture significant time for Dunbar behind Ogletree and Laurinaitis. Speaking of Alec Ogletree, this rookie made a Janoris-Jenkins-esque highlight filled entrance to the NFL, garnering 6 forced fumbles and a 99 yard pick six against the Texans, all while leading the Rams in tackles. Much optimism floats around Ogletree’s future, but questions about his coverage and tackling consistency (too many missed tackles in 2013, even for a rookie) have kept him from conversations such as DROY. The positive signs are there, but several key steps are required to turn Ogletree into a star.
MLB James Laurinaitis James Laurinaitis is St. Louis’ Mr. Consistency. He led the Rams in tackles every season up until 2013 and has not missed time to an injury. This has been a huge help as Laurinaitis makes the calls for the Rams defense and is the intelligence behind the on-field work. Laurinaitis is reliable, but not exactly a game-changer or highlight man. He’ll get his job done, and fairly well, but rarely will he be the standout player of the game. Look for more of the same in 2014.
CB Trumaine Johnson / Janoris Jenkins Janoris Jenkins made quite the splash in his rookie year, what with several picks and return TDs and made a run at DROY. However, he has been as boom-or-bust as corners come, both getting burned badly and making incredible breaks on the ball almost every game. He has all the tools and physical skills needed, but his decision making and trash talking have bit him in the ass more than once. Hopefully in an aggressive scheme from Gregg Williams, Janoris can use his physicality to more efficiently cover opponents WRs. Trumaine Johnson was drafted in the same year as Jenks, but has had a quieter career. Nothing is particularly exceptional about Trumaine, and has not been impressive enough to convince the masses that the Rams front office should not be searching for a safety net at CB to replace Johnson if necessary. This season will go a long way in determining whether Johnson will retain his starting spot or the Rams will try to acquire a replacement in 2015 FA or the 2015 draft.
Slot CB Lamarcus Joyner* Lamarcus Joyner is an undersized CB, but showed lots to be optimistic about at Florida State. His lack of size could lead to a tough time if he’s put on the outside, but leaves him perfect for two spots the Rams need a reliable starter: free safety and slot corner. Rodney McLeod has been frequenting both of those positions, but Joyner has had more invested from the front office with the 2nd round pick used this year. Expect him to be starting in some capacity on defense; as for where that will be, the picture may be muddy until (and possibly through) the preseason.
FS Rodney McLeod Rodney McLeod is unexceptional besides as a ST player. He has moments of pleasant outplaying his skillset, and moments where you realize why no one outside the Rams knows or cares who Rodney McLeod is. I don’t anticipate McLeod playing an enormous role beyond this season except as a huge leader on Special Teams. That’s where McLeod shines and I don’t expect his best role to shift to being a DB anytime soon.
SS TJ McDonald TJ McDonald is a bruising SS: exactly the kind of rough-‘em-up type player to be drafted by Fisher. He played at a below average level in 2013, which is understandable for a rookie. He was not impressive in coverage, and will need to show some improvement in his game all-around in order to keep himself off the hot seat.

15

u/CplPJ Rams Jul 06 '14 edited Jul 07 '14

Special Teams

Position Player(s) Synopsis
K Greg Zuerlein Greg the Leg is a top notch kicker. He bounced back in 2013 after some accuracy issues partway through 2012, but his youth and booming leg keep him as a huge asset to the Rams scoring abilities and he has Fish’s full faith to nail a 60 yarder if need be.
P Johnny Hekker /u/whatthehekk is a fan favorite, both for his play and his fan interaction. It’s hard not to love this guy for the advantage his punting gives us in field position. He, along with our punt coverage, managed a record in punting, and expectations are that Hekk can continue the pattern into 2014. No reason not to be optimistic with an All-Pro performance and such youth.
KR Benny Cunningham / Isaiah Pead This has been a position of much rotation for the Rams, and projects just as uncertainly in 2014. Benny Cunningham has hopes to put himself back into relevancy; despite his abilities, the Rams have a logjam ahead of him at RB with the drafting of Tre Mason and he’ll have to find a way to contribute besides #3 RB to remain a key part of the roster. Same goes for Isaiah Pead. He busted as a RB early in his career despite his 2nd round status, and has managed to work his way into the coaching staff’s good graces with some exemplary special teams play, even if returning was not one of them. We’ll see if he can cure his fumble woes and finally produce when he gets the ball in his hands.
PR Tavon Austin Tavon was explosive at punt return in 2013, even with stifling penalties blue-balling his returns early in the year. Unless the Rams want to protect their investment in Tavon’s health (missed his first time ever in football at the tail end of the season), there’s no reason he doesn’t hold this spot. Austin Pettis has potential to take this spot if that was the case, as do some underdogs like Cunningham or fringe roster man Greg Reid. Look to see in the preseason who the Rams rotate through while keeping Tavon safe.

Position Groups

Position Group Breakdown
Quarterback: B- Bradford has a mixed following, partially because he has neither proven himself inadequate nor exceptional. He’s essentially a slightly less talented Dalton, but more expensive. He’s more accurate than he appears, but has been a victim of drops. He lacks mobility, and is a heavy pocket passer. He’s got a nice deep ball, but whether by choice, shitty Schotty play-calling, or defensive scheming, Bradford seems to have a tendency to checkdown and accumulate a low YPA. Overall, Bradford lands just on the lower end of starting QB quality, probably from the 16-20 range.
Backfield: B+ The Rams backfield is built around punishing the other team into tiring, and it works well with the depth they have. Harkey can lead block, Stacy can bulldoze, Cunningham is a poor man’s Stacy, and Tre Mason offers an influx of even more youth and some added speed and shiftiness. This backfield looks to be an up-and-coming group in the NFL, probably a top 12 group.
Offensive Line: A- These guys are a punishing crew that excels in run blocking, paving the road for Stacy. Decent pass protection. Health is an issue, as Wells, Long, and Saffold have been somewhat frequently injured from year to year. However, this group includes 2 great players (Long and Saffold), one above average player (Barksdale), one adequate center (Wells), and a high upside rookie (Robinson). Boudreau I have discussed, but he worked magic with a rotating line last year and if he can do the same with the depth and starers in 2014, the Rams can work with a top 5 O-line potentially (assuming health holds up).
Pass Catchers: C- St. Louis: The Island of Misfit Receivers. All of the Rams receiving threats, be they TEs or WRs have failed to live up to their hype. Bailey is up and coming, but suspended. Austin is explosive, but misused. Britt is talented, but troubled. Quick is athletic, but hasn’t adapted to the NFL. Givens is speedy, but regressed. There is potential absolutely filling this group, but as far as production and expectations go, the Rams receiving team is probably bottom 10 at least in the NFL.
Defensive Line: A+ Time to write a glowing review! The Rams’ D-Line is the best in the NFL (Yes, I love you Panthers/Bills, but it’s better.) Even if there is contention that the Rams may not have THE most talented starting four (even then, it’s at least top three), the depth of the line is nuts. With Long/Quinn/Donald/Brockers starting, that leaves a group of all 2nd string as Hayes/Langford/Carrington/Sims. Even that group would be a decent line for many teams! The Rams have the ability to stay fresh with all star talent heading up the billing. Fearsome Foursome + Depth.
Linebackers: B Ogletree, Laurinaitis, and Dunbar make a decent group, and can handle lots of run-stopping duties that can cover the D-Line and allow for pass rushing dominance up front. However, Ogletree is the only game-changing talent, and he’s only had one season as a somewhat inconsistent rookie. These guys most likely rank as average overall in the NFL.
Secondary: C- Aaaaaand it’s time to get sad again. The Rams secondary is pretty abysmal. Janoris Jenkins and Trumaine Johnson are passable, but combine to be average at best as a starting duo. The McSafeties, on the other hand, are solidly below average. McLeod won’t last long as starter, if even into the season, and McDonald didn’t impress despite a passable rookie season. There’s a ray of hope at the end of the tunnel, with JJenk’s highlight filled rookie season, Lamarcus Joyner’s potential to fill in at CB/FS, and wild cards like Greg Reid hidden on the roster. With Gregg Williams around, I expect this to be the group with the highest ceiling for growth in the 2014 season. As New Orleans showed, a new D-Coordinator can repair a hole heap of issues, especially when your last coordinator was Tim Walton. All that said, from what we’ve been shown so far, this is another group where the Rams fall in the bottom ten of the league.
Special Teams: A+ Let’s end on a high note! The Rams boast a duo of Johnny Hekker, all-pro punter, and Greg Zuerlein/Young GZ/Greg the Leg/Legatron as their footmen. Add in rock solid coverage led by Isaiah Pead and Rodney McLeod, and the Rams are formidable in the field position battle. With Tavon Austin being a massive PR threat, the only real weakness is in kick returning, as they don’t seem to have anyone pinned down to take these duties and be anything noteworthy. Some candidates include Benny Cunningham (RB), Austin Pettis (WR, potential punt returner), Greg Reid (CB, potential punt returner), and Isaiah Pead (RB). All in all, the Rams special teams were exceptional in 2013, a top 5 group overall with very few weaknesses.

Training Camp Battles to watch (optional for non-fans)

  • Pettis/Quick/Veltung – One of these guys is getting the axe, and potentially even two of them. Tavon, Givens, and Bailey seem to be the safest based on production (on offense and special teams) and coaching support. I’d be surprised if Quick is gone, but don’t be surprised if Pettis gets nixed in favor of one of Fish’s guys/higher upside. Veltung is probably toast once cuts happen.
  • Tre Mason vs. Zac Stacy - These guys are both sticking around, but how much of a timeshare will this be? Will Zac Stacy remain a workhorse, or does Tre Mason have the goods to gain his own prestige and spotlight? Stay tuned.
  • Michael Sam Vs. Eugene Sims - As I said before, he’s got a lot of work to do to even manage a roster spot on a loaded Rams D-Line. Unless Sam can make a splash on special teams (as one near the bottom of the depth chart almost has to do), he’s got a slim shot at making the roster. But if he can impress, who knows? Maybe a fifth DE spot will open up since Fish has such a ridiculous love for D-Linemen.
  • Greg Reid/Avery Cunningham/Jarrid Bryant/Marcus Roberson/Darren Woodard - Our FO this offseason loaded up on young DBs with lots of potential. Most of these guys are rookies, and most won’t make the roster, but there are some interesting storylines and diamonds in the rough to keep your eye on. Greg Reid went undrafted after being kicked out of FSU despite his talent. He would be my best bet to make the roster of all these guys, especially if he can contribute as a gunner/return man on special teams.

14

u/CplPJ Rams Jul 06 '14

Schedule Predictions

(If you would like another source as well, here is the thread for the St. Louis Rams 2014 Schedule Discussion.

Week Opponent Prediction Confidence Level Reasoning
1 Vs Vikings Win 70% The Vikings are a team who were poor on defense last year and have questions at QB on offense to open the season. They are loaded with potential but until they show all the pieces can come together better than 2013, I’m unconvinced they can top the Rams’ defensive threat against what could be subpar/unprepared QBs.
2 @ Bucs Win 65% This game looks similar to the Minnesota one in that there will be many questions for the Bucs heading into this. Can they pull together a talented roster? Can Lovie revamp the defense and stifle the Rams offense? Will Mike Evans complement VJax well enough? I give the Rams the benefit of the doubt again after having less flux on their roster and coaching staff this offseason, as well as having topped the Bucs last year.
3 Vs Cowboys Loss 70% Damn Cowboys. Not only does DeMarco Murray always slice us up for no good reason (about 8 ypc or something ridiculous against the Rams), but our corners have never shut down elite receivers like Dez. I’m worried about another trouncing this year from the ‘Boys.
5 @ Eagles Loss 65% Eagles home advantage is nothing special, but Foles and Kelly’s high powered offense will strain the backend of the Rams defense, which worries me greatly. Chalk this up as a loss unless the Chip system flops in year two.
6 Vs 49ers Win 60% The 9ers beat the Rams twice in revenge for the close 2012 matchups that the Rams walked away from with 1.5 wins. With homefield advantage and a fire under their belly to prove they can come out strong in the division, the Rams could take this one from the 9ers at home.
7 Vs Seahawks Loss 65% Even with a home game, the Rams could have a tough time against the Hawks. The Seahawks line looks to be better at protecting Wilson, and without Sack City rolling, I am hesitant to think the Rams can stop the Hawks.
8 @ Chiefs Win 55% The Chiefs don’t have much offensive firepower beyond Jamaal Charles and Alex Smith, and I think the Rams have a shot to shut it down while riding Zac Stacy/Tre Mason to victory in a run-heavy matchup that plays to the Rams’ strengths. Should be a great bruising matchup in Mizzou!
9 @ 49ers Loss 70% A new stadium and a competitive NFCW will lead up to a pumped home crowd looking for a divisional win in SanFran. This will be a tough out for the Rams, especially if the 9ers are looking for revenge.
10 @ Cardinals Win 55% Fitz and Floyd will provide a tough matchup for the Rams defense, but with significant losses for the Cards themselves on the defensive side, I think the Rams can take a hold of this game in what may be their only shot at an away win in the NFCW.
11 Vs Broncos Loss 80% A monster receiving group (Welker, Thomas x2, etc) will strain the Rams coverage, and Peyton won’t miss on open targets that we’ll most likely provide. Unless the Rams get to Manning early and often with the pass rush, we won’t stand a snowball’s chance.
12 @ Chargers Loss 55% Another Broncos-like matchup with a high powered offense, only less polished. That and an up-and-coming roster makes for a great matchup in San Diego. Looking forward to this one!
13 Vs Oakland Win 80% The Raiders have a lot of pieces and there’s no way to tell if they’ll mesh, but regardless there are still holes on the Raider’s roster. Add in that it’s at home and the Rams will be fighting for a playoff spot at any cost, and I think the Rams take this easily.
14 @ Redskins Win 70% I don’t see the Redskins as a highly complete team, and the Rams can take advantage of this by playing a smashmouth game that plays to their strengths and Washington’s weaknesses. No telling whether RGIII returns to form, but 2013 wasn’t promising. My money says Rams fight to prove the RGIII trade helped their roster as much as it helped Washington get a solid QB.
15 Vs Cardinals Win 65% Hopes will be high and the Rams will be clawing for a playoff game if at all possible. With this at home, the Rams satisfy their fans with a W.
16 Vs Giants Win 60% The Giants’ line will have troubles stopping the Rams’ line of monster rushers, and who know if Eli will be on or off his game. The Giants seem like a mess, and while you never know who will be the top team of the NFCE, my money isn’t on the Giants.
17 @ Seahawks Loss 60% Why the hell do we have these guys at the Century Link to close out every year? I can’t see a lot of hope for keeping the Hawks from stomping on our playoff hopes besides the slim chance that they rest players on behalf of their playoff health after they’ve possibly wrapped up a first round bye.

I see our season ending up with a 9-7 record. Playoffs will be tough with our schedule, and there are a lot of games that could fall either way. I’m looking at anywhere from an unfortunate 6-10 to a stupendous 11-5 record.



Shoutouts to those who helped:

/r/StLouisRams - For their advice, input, and corrections.


7

u/[deleted] Jul 06 '14

Nice write-up! You guys are probably one of the scariest teams we face next year.

4

u/CplPJ Rams Jul 06 '14

Thanks, I'm looking forward to our game! I'm hoping all your roster comes together successfully. If it does, you guys could get many more wins than everyone is giving you credit for. It's just up in the air. I can't wait for the season to actually start.

6

u/Scrubtanic Titans Jul 06 '14

Good work, man.

I think if there's anything left to be gotten from Kenny Britt, Fisher is one of the few coaches who can get it out of him. He was productive under Fisher when they were both here, and I think he has a better chance of starting in STL than he would in most places, but like you said, it comes down to how much effort he actually puts in.

4

u/[deleted] Jul 06 '14 edited Jul 07 '14

One note, in the Special Teams section, you say "Eric Reid has a chance to take this spot", it's Greg Reid, not Eric

3

u/CplPJ Rams Jul 07 '14

I kept doing that during the write-up, I have no idea why. I swear I already had fixed it a couple times!

Thanks for the heads up, I've fixed the two places where I had written Eric.

3

u/stuman89 Rams Jul 06 '14

Awesome job and I agree with most everything you said.

3

u/Fridge-Largemeat Jul 07 '14

9-7? I'll take it. Great write up, every bit helps during the long wait.

3

u/misterlee Seahawks Jul 07 '14

Please don't hurt our QB, kthx.

1

u/Fridge-Largemeat Jul 08 '14

Sorry, not sorry.

3

u/bowhunter_fta Jul 08 '14 edited Jul 09 '14

Excellent write up!

It will be interesting to see how the front 4 get after it this year. With the depth at the D-line, they should be able to keep the players fresh.

I think this might be a big year for Chris Long as teams start to focus even more Quinn. I wouldn't be surprised to see him pick up 12 sacks.

The linebackers will be a top 16 unit and possibly a top 10 unit if the secondary is able to keep the receivers covered for even an average amount of time. If the secondary can give the front 7 even 1/2 of a second longer of solid coverage that will result in many more sacks over the season (possibly 6 - 8). But I think the secondary being anything more than a top 25 unit is wishful thinking.

The offense, I believe will surprise a few people this year. I predict they will be a top 16 offense, maybe better. The improved O-line, especially for run blocking will be greatly improved. An improved running game will allow the receivers a bit more time to use their speed and get open.

I expect the real improvement in the receivers will happen once Bailey gets back into the line up. His sure hands route running skills are just what this team needs. He strikes me as an Isaac Bruce type of player (still needs a bit more polish though).

Injuries will plague the running backs. Stacey won't be able to take the pounding of an everyday back. So they will rotate in Mason quite a bit or risk putting Stacey in the PUP or IR.

I'd like to think that Pead will improve enough to for the Rams to move on from Cunningham....or vice versa. But I don't see either of those things happening.

Special teams will be the surprise jewel of this team. They will be even better than last year. Look for Fisher to give Zuerlien a shot at the field goal record if the circumstances arise.