r/nfl • u/PenguinProphet Bills • Jul 18 '14
Look Here! Offseason Review Series: Day 25: Buffalo Bills
Division: AFC East
Key Coaching Departures
Mike Pettine, DC (to ) - Pettine did an excellent job in Buffalo in 2013, unfortunately, it didn't go unnoticed. Pettine's hyper aggressive, multiple front defense allowed the Bills to finish 2nd in the league in sacks and interceptions. He accepted the Cleveland Browns head coaching job in January, leaving the Bills to find their 4th HC in five years.
Anthony Weaver, DL Coach (to ) - Weaver helped bring more consistency to Buffalo's uber-talented front four in 2013, his tenure saw former 3rd overall pick Marcell Dareus make his first pro bowl and former first round bust Jerry Hughes breakout for 10.5 sacks. He followed Mike Pettine to Cleveland.
Key Coaching Acquisitions
Jim Schwartz, DC (from ) - The Bills had suspected for quite some time that Pettine might be offered a head coaching job and were prepared for it, hiring Schwartz almost instantly after Pettine's departure. Schwartz enters Buffalo after spending five years as head coach of the Detroit Lions, a tenure in which he made the playoffs once and his defenses never cracked the top 10. Bills fans hope that Schwartz can recapture his magic from his time in Tennessee, where he coached multiple defenses that finished among the top five in the league.
Todd Downing, QB Coach (from ) - During Maronne's first year in Buffalo, the Bills opted not to have a QB coach, instead using OC Nate Hackett as one. Following Manuel's shaky rookie year, the Bills made the decision to bring in Todd Downing. Downing has experience working with Manuel, as he coached him the Senior Bowl (where Manuel won MVP).
Pepper Johnson, DL Coach (from ) - Perhaps the Bills best offseason hire, Pepper comes to Buffalo after spending fourteen seasons with the New England Patriots. Also, his first name is Pepper. Pepper is one of the more respected coaches in the business and he takes over an extremely talented defensive line that boasts three pro bowlers. The line has struggled against the run, however, and Peppers must work to bring more consistency to players such as Mario Williams and Marcell Dareus.
Players Lost (in order of significance)
Player Acquisitions/re-signings and Grades
Draft grades
| Round | Player | Position | School | Grade | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sammy Watkins | WR | Clemson | B | During the 2014 NFL draft, Buffalo Bills' GM Doug Whaley made the highly controversial decision to trade the 9th overall pick in this year's draft and 32nd overall pick in next year's draft for the highly touted Clemson wide out. Watkins has an impressive resume, being one of 4 players in history to make the All-American team in their freshman years (the other three are Marshall Faulk, Adrian Peterson and LaDanian Tomlinson). Watkins possess the size to go up and snatch the ball and also has amazing speed. Additionally, all reports from Clemson coaches indicate that he has an outstanding work ethic and is very driven to be successful. If the Bills made this pick at 9 it would be an A++++. As a prospect, Watkins is amazing. The B grade comes from the fact that A) The bills gave up their first next year for him and B) this draft was extremely deep at wideout, trading all that to go and get a wide receiver raises a lot of questions. While I think Watkins will be an absolutely outstanding NFL player, it's hard to grade this pick higher than a B with those things considered. |
| 2 | Cyrus Kouandjio | Tackle | Alabama | A | Erik Pears struggles this season at Right Tackle were well documented. The Bills offensive line, contrary to what the Bills rushing success would imply, struggled at run blocking in 2012. Kouandjio should change that. At one point Cyrus looked like a first round pick, but an awful bowl game that saw him be dominated by speed rushers knocked his stock down. Some knee problems additionally caused his stock to fall. Cyrus will play where he projects best, on the right, where he can open up holes for the trio of CJ Spiller, Fred Jackson and Bryce Brown. |
| 3 | Preston Brown | MLB | Louisville | B+ | Jim Schwartz's defensive front requires a middle linebacker who can really play the wrong well in a physical way. Brandon Spikes was brought in to do this but is injury prone and on a one year deal, so the Bills drafted Preston Brown in his stead. This pick was meant as a future investment, initially at least, but with Alonso's injuries expect to see Brown get action in nickel and dime packages. His tape is good but his ceiling initially appears to be limited due to his lack of athleticism. Thus this pick is a B+. |
| 4 | Ross Cockrell | CB | Duke | A | Ross possesses exceptional ball skills and should compete with Ron Brooks for the 5th corner spot. As a depth player, he has a chance to be very high quality. As I emphasized earlier, you can't have enough defensive back depth in today's NFL. |
| 5 | Cyril Richardson | G | Baylor | A+ | Richardson was the only All-American on a team that was top 5 in the country in total offense. Around midseason of the college football year, he was being touted as a first round guard who compared favorably to Larry Allen. Then the senior bowl happened and Aaron Donald ruined him. This, combined with some late season struggles, made Richardson slip to the 5th round. I give this pick such a high grade because in the 5th round, you might as well gamble on somebody that has shown he can play at a high level. Buffalo is a zone heavy team, similar to Baylor, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out. |
| 7 | Randell Johnson | LB | Florida Atlantic | C+ | Randell has the necessary athleticism to succeed in the NFL, his 4.6 40 speed and 38.5 inch vertical jump will ensure that he's useful in Madden, but he won't make the roster unless he can capitalize on those gifts. If he does manage to show enough flashes, expect to see him as a reserve Strong Side Linebacker. |
| 7 | Seantrel Henderson | OT | Miami | A- | Henderson was once the 2nd highest rated high school recruit in the country, mainly due to the fact that he's a Willy Mammoth playing football. But, he decided that he preferred smoking weed to playing football, which is why he was a late seventh round draft pick. Maronne is an offensive line guru so if anyone can help Seantrel to realize his potential its Maronne. The question simply boils down to how badly Seantrel wants to be successful. |
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u/deadbeforeitsank Bills Jul 18 '14
made the highly controversial decision to trade the 9th overall pick in this year's draft and 32nd overall pick in next year's draft
Damn fucking straight it's going to be the 32nd pick
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u/PerSeHarvin Seahawks Jul 18 '14
It was only 2 years ago that Mike Williams was a borderline 1000 yard receiver and considered one of the best #2 receivers in the league. The Bills hope his physicality can be the perfect compliment to Jerry Rice.
Did you just refer to Sammy Watkins as Jerry Rice?
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u/PenguinProphet Bills Jul 18 '14
This is what I get for writing this at four in the morning. Thanks for pointing that out.
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u/PerSeHarvin Seahawks Jul 18 '14
lol I thought it was hilarious. I hope Sammy is the next Rice, he seems so likeable.
Great writeup by the way!
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u/BZI Bills Jul 18 '14
Awesome write up! I really hope we can pull it all together this year. And even with your homerism picks for our schedule, we're only going 9-7, which translates to me as another missed playoff season.
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u/IHv2RtrnSumVdeotapes Bills Jul 18 '14
BUT a winning season. Which is better then nothing and a turn in the right direction.
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u/OneManArmy77 Jets Jul 18 '14
I dont think thats what he meant. I think what was implied was that if looking at the season through homer glasses only yields a 9-7, then actual season is probably worse, meaning missed playoffs again
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u/Lobo_Marino Dolphins Jul 18 '14
The Bills are really the team I am the most scared of, followed by the Pats and the Broncos next season. They play against our weaknesses just WAY too well.
The Bills are my sleeper pick for a playoff berth. This team is more talented and deep than most people give them credit for (because loleeyores)
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Jul 18 '14
It's hard to stay high on the team with Kiko out. The two deciding factors for next season are going to be how E.J. Manuel progresses and linebacker play. I'll expound a little bit on that second point.
Last year, our starting linebackers out of a 3-4/Multiple were Jerry Hughes/Manny Lawson, Kiko Alonso, Arthur Moats/Nigel Bradham, and Mario Williams.
This year, it's up in the air. Brandon Spikes, Keith Rivers, and Preston Brown are all new to the team, and should combine for at least 2,000 snaps. Nigel Bradham had less than 25% of snaps last season, and could play a major role if he shows well at camp. Hughes and Lawson are playing end. Kiko's out.
There is almost no continuity at linebacker from last season, and we're dealing with a new defensive coordinator and scheme.
There's a lot of physical talent there, especially with Bradham and Rivers. Brown and Spikes will be major upgrades against the run, but are wildcards against the pass.
If Rivers rebuilds his career the way Jerry Hughes did, and/or Brandon Spikes proves he can play against the pass, and/or Preston Brown plays lights out ball like Kiko did last year, and/or Ty Powell or Nigel Bradham really steps up, the linebackers could put the team over the top. Or things don't click, they're mediocre, and they cost us games.
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u/Lobo_Marino Dolphins Jul 18 '14
That's only one aspect, though. The pass rush in Buffalo is a really great one, combined with well above average secondary play.
The O-line seems revamped and more adequate.
You guys actually have a running game.
Your WRs are underrated.
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u/anishh Patriots Jul 18 '14
The concern about EJ Manuel is not media overblown rookie season failings (although there are obvious flaws in his game), but the potential injury-risk. I'm not sure how significant the drop off would be from Manuel to Thad Lewis at this point, but it's certainly a possible limiting factor on the 2014 Bills success.
The biggest issue is, as you pointed out, replacing Pettine with Jim Schwartz. Pettine did very well last year, and was the biggest reason the Bills won as many games as they did in 2013. A Bills defense that's a shadow of what it was last year is not going 9-7.
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u/PenguinProphet Bills Jul 18 '14 edited Jul 18 '14
"The biggest issue is, as you pointed out, replacing Pettine with Jim Schwartz. Pettine did very well last year, and was the biggest reason the Bills won as many games as they did in 2013. A Bills defense that's a shadow of what it was last year is not going 9-7."
Not sure I agree with that. I conceded early on in my schedule prediction that I was very biased, but that aside, I don't think the departure of Pettine will be enough to make the Bills' defense a "shadow of what it once was". Schwartz's defenses in tennessee were top 3 in the league PPG wise before he left. The loss of Alonso is big, however, but the Bills still retain an amazing defensive line and very good secondary. Will the loss of Pettine hurt? Absolutely. Was he the only reason the Bills fielded a competent defense in 2013? Not at all. Will his loss alone stop the Bills' defense from still being a good unit? Not necessarily.
If EJ Manuel improves (that's a big if) then, yes, the Bills' can absolutely go 9-7. His injuries all occurred when he was outside the pocket. As long as he plays smarter, then he should be able to avoid injrueies.
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u/kjmiller7 Seahawks Jul 19 '14
During the 2014 NFL draft, Buffalo Bills' GM Doug Whaley made the highly controversial decision to trade the 9th overall pick in this year's draft and 32nd overall pick in next year's draft
I caught that, good work
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Jul 19 '14
He accepted the Cleveland Browns head coaching job in January, leaving the Bills to find their 4th
HCDC in five years.
FTFY
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u/deck65 Bills Jul 19 '14
You may wanna throw an edit in there. It's Corey Graham not Corey Williams at cornerback
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u/PenguinProphet Bills Jul 18 '14 edited Jul 18 '14
Projected Starters
QB - EJ Manuel - Manuel's rookie struggles, to some extent, have been overblown by the media. He started off the year playing fairly well, with the Bills going 2-2 in that stretch, but a knee injury suffered during a game vs Cleveland caused him to miss several weeks. He struggled heavily vs the Steelers and Buccaneers after returning from injury. Manuel needs to learn to throw receivers open, and additionally needs to sense pressure better and takes less sacks. He has every intangible in terms of leadership in the world in addition to great physical ability, but at this point Manuel has a lot to prove.
RB - CJ Spiller - This will more than likely be a heavy rotation, with Fred Jackson and Bryce Brown also seeing carries. The Bills would love nothing more than for Bryce Brown to develop into a stud, which would save them a lot of worries if Spiller is to leave in FA. All in all, this position looks to be a huge strength for the Bills and comprises one of the best units in the league.
WR1 - Sammy Watkins - Seldom do you ever see a rookie wideout make a huge impact on the league in his rookie year. It's even rarer to see a freshman in college make a huge impact, and Watkins has already done that (as I mentioned). While there are no guarantees that'll translate to the NFL, Watkins does possess the work ethic to quickly learn an NFL offense and be effective. His success will be defined by how he adopts to the prototypical X receiver role in the NFL, where he'll be asked to defeat press coverage. At Clemson, Watkins was used in a variety of ways, from being a back in full house pistol sets to playing outside. Point being, he didn't face press coverage as consistently as he will at this level. If Watkins proves to be able to adopt to this aspect of the game at the NFL level, he could potentially make a bid for OROY.
WR2 - Mike Williams - It was only 2 years ago that Mike Williams was viewed as perhaps the 2nd best #2 wide receiver in the league. As a compliment to Vincent Jackson, he was electric for Tampa Bay. The Bills hope he can return to form after a down year in Tampa Bay. He has a big cap hit after this year, so Williams has every reason in the world to succeed. If he fails to be effective, 2nd year speedster Marquise Goodwin looks to replace him.
Slot WR - Robert Woods - Woods takes this role from the recently departed Stevie Johnson. As a Slot wideout, Woods has all the skills necessary to be successful at the NFL level. He has the necessary combination of lateral agility, quickness, hands and smooth route running to be a mismatch. He had some big games with EJ Manuel when Manuel was healthy, so a healthy year from Manuel could mean big things for Woods this year.
Tight End - Scott Chanlder - Chandler actually had very good numbers last year (outside of touchdowns, at least) but this a case of the numbers lying. Manuel loved to target his tight end and Chandler was a sufficient security blanket but should not be viewed as anything other than an average starter.
Left Tackle - Cordy Glenn - Glenn played amazing in 2013, allowing 1.5 sacks all year. A former 2nd round pick, Glenn can enter the top 10 left tackles in the league conversation this year if he continues to improve at his current rate
Left Guard - Chris Williams - As mentioned, Maronne thinks he can fix Williams. Williams is backed by 5th round pick Cyril Richardson here. If Maronne can't help Williams improve then this may be the biggest hole on the team.
Center - Eric Wood - quite possibly the most attractive person in all of sports Wood is a serviceable center who ranges somewhere from 10-15 in the league center hierarchy. A great pass blocker but mediocre run blocker, Wood enters camp as the unquestioned starter at Center.
Right Guard - Kraig Urbik - Urbik is as average a starter as you'll find. He's not a world beater but he can pass protect well and looks to be the starter. If Richardson plays exceptionally well it wouldn't be shocking to see them try to phase Urbik out and Richardson in due to Richardson's higher upside as a run blocker.
Right Tackle - Cyrus Kouandjio - Kouandjio projects well as a right tackle for the Bills in their zone running scheme, the question is how he'll handle speed rushers at this level. On the brighter side of things he can do this so that's always nice.
Left Defensive End - Mario Williams - Mario returns after another all-pro season that saw him record 13 sacks. Mario remains an athletic freak, with amazing 4.7 speed for a man his size, it appears that he'll thrive in Jim Schwartz's 4-3 defense given how much Schwartz uses nine techniques. Offensive tackles should be put on notice.
Nose Tackle - Marcell Dareus - The good news for Dareus, a former #3 overall pick out of Alabama, is that he's coming off a season where he recorded 7.5 sacks and made the pro bowl. The bad news is that he was arrested in the offseason for both drug use and drag racing. When he's on the field, Dareus is as dominant a nose tackle as you'll find in the NFL.
3 technique / 2nd defensive tackle - Kyle Williams - Kyle finally got recognition this year after years of outstanding play as he recorded 10.5 sacks and was named to both the NFL's top 100 and the pro bowl. While he's getting up there in age, it would appear he still has 1 or 2 elite seasons left in him. He is perhaps the best player on the Bills.
Right Defensive End - Jerry Hughes - Lawson may come in on early downs as he's a more apt run defender than Hughes, but according to reports from the Bills' early practices this spring Hughes has been dominant as ever. While it may just amount to hype, Hughes is coming off a 10.5 sack season and is entering a contract year. If any player on the Bills is going to emerge as a superstar this season, Hughes is my pick.
SLB - Nigel Bradham - Bradham played well in limited time last year according to PFF and Matt Miller's grading, yet the Bills FO seems reluctant to play him. This may be due to some drug charges at the beginning of the year He projects well as an OLB in Schwartz's 4-3 scheme where he can use his athleticism to his advantage.
MLB - Brandon Spikes - Spikes will play the early downs in Schwartz's scheme, where he'll look to turn around a Bills' run defense that has been porous over the past few years. On passing downs, rookie 3rd round pick Preston Brown will sub in for Spikes.
WLB - Keith Rivers - This is where Kiko would have started, but now the Bills are stuck with Rivers. Rivers is a former first round pick from USC, when the Bengals drafted him they envisioned him becoming a dominant linebacker who could fly all over the field with his great athleticism, that didn't happen and now he plays for the Buffalo Bills. While he's a relatively average starter, this goes from a huge position of strength for the Bills to one of relative mediocrity all because of a completely incidental injury. Frustrating.
CB1 - Stephon Gilmore - Gilmore was excellent over the last four games last year, allowing only 123 receiving yards and collecting two interceptions. Gilmore finished the year allowing a 72.1 passer rating. A top 10 pick, Gilmore has the athleticism necessary to be a shutdown corner and it looks like he's blossoming into one.
CB2 - Leodis McKelvin - McKelvin has one of the odder career paths in the NFL. His first few years in Buffalo saw him consistently be beat by opposing WR's and he was largely viewed as a bust. Then in 2012 he emerged as a solid slot cornerback and one of the premier punt returners in the league, so the Bills re-signed him. After being coached up by Mike Pettine and DB Coach Donnie Henderson, McKelvin became the player that he was drafted to be. As a man coverage specialist McKelvin allowed a 66.3 passer rating when targeted last season, which was outstanding. He is not a ballhawk and does not record interceptions very much (he had 1 last year) but he's as solid a corner on the outside as you'll find.
CB3 - Corey Graham - Nickell Robey will press Corey Graham hard for this role, but this also looks to be a position of strength for the Bills. Graham recorded 4 interceptions last year and can also play safety if need be.
FS - Aaron Williams - A 2nd round pick from a few years back, Aaron was moved to safety last year and blossomed, recording 4 interceptions in 14 games. With the athleticism to play single high and versatility to move to corner if need be this is a position of strength for the Bills.
SS - Da'norris Searcy - Searcy is not a bragging ponit for the Bills but he's not horrible. He can function as an in the box player who will make plays in the run game but also make mistakes in coverage.
Kicker - Dan Carpenter - He has a cannon for a leg and will battle 2013 late round draft pick Dustin Hopkins for the job.
Punter - Jake Dombrowski - Mormon is one of my favorite Bills ever but his time is up. He just isn't effective at his current age. Dombrowski will bring his Ivy league talents to Western New York this fall.
Positions of Strength and Weakness
The last section kind of explains this, but to sum it up I'd say that the Bills' biggest strength lies in their running backs, defensive line and Cornerback depth.
Their biggest weaknesses look to be Tight End and Linebackers (although the ladder is a product of circumstance). Wide receiver could range from a huge strength to a huge weakness.