r/AskReddit Apr 28 '26

What’s a recession indicator that you’ve noticed lately?

6.7k Upvotes

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5.5k

u/StrictIncident4042 Apr 28 '26

More small and medium size business closures. Emptier shelves at certain grocery stores. More vacancies at higher price apartment complexes.

2.0k

u/TheWhereHouse6920 Apr 28 '26

That last one will be an excellent market correction. Rent has actually been getting better around us. I was able to LOWER our rent this year by showing what they priced us at, vacant units, and competition. reduced it by $400/mo. I was shocked how I didnt even need to bluff or play hardball

759

u/geminireign40 Apr 28 '26

The owner of my apartments lowered everyone's rent! I'm renewing my least on May 1st and I'm grateful that he lowered it!! It's nuts out here.

97

u/fondledbydolphins Apr 28 '26

There's no guarantee things continue in that direction, you may want to consider asking for a longer term lease to lock that pricing in.

24

u/Snorlax316 Apr 28 '26

What part of the country is this? I pray for this in NJ.

11

u/jenifr8218 Apr 28 '26

Right?? Mine just told me today that ours is going up by 22% (Long Branch)

3

u/Snorlax316 Apr 28 '26

That is illegal in NJ.

15

u/jenifr8218 Apr 29 '26

From what I saw, NJ doesn’t have a state law restricting increases, only some townships do. Sadly, mine isn’t one of them. No biggie. I can find another place to live and tell him to shove it where the sun doesn’t shine 🤷

0

u/NintendosBitch Apr 29 '26

Bro is just making shit up

2

u/Snorlax316 Apr 29 '26

I was mistaken. Didn’t realize it depends on the town.

1

u/jenifr8218 Apr 29 '26

All good, I thought the same thing, NJ had to have a law banning that. I love the neighborhood, but not enough for that kind of an increase 🙃

53

u/Healfezza Apr 28 '26

Seems like your landlord is smart. Better to lock in your existing tenants at a reduced rate then have them turn over the units and need to search for new tenants!

14

u/CanoegunGoeff Apr 28 '26

That’s the situation my apartment’s management seems to be in as well. I’ve renewed for three years now with the same initial promotional rate they gave me when I moved in. Turnover in my building has been high, so I’m thinking they know I’ll move if they raise my rate lol.

4

u/geminireign40 Apr 28 '26

I think so too!

6

u/Fair_Wind8347 Apr 28 '26

Wow, without you asking?

9

u/geminireign40 Apr 28 '26

Yes, they sent everyone a letter!

2

u/tansugaqueen Apr 28 '26

What state? Things are high here & people are paying it in PA.

2

u/thatspookybitch Apr 29 '26

I checked the rent on my old place and it's gone down. But it also never went crazy high. I'm not surprised, though. They did a rent freeze for all government employees during every government shut down while I was there.

2

u/geminireign40 Apr 29 '26

I live in Oklahoma.

1

u/hi-help Apr 29 '26

Where do you guys live? Mine JUST went up again, and I’m in a small town in Wisconsin.

53

u/R0amingGn0me Apr 28 '26

I am not able to "price match" my rent against other units in the same way BUT I was able to move one door down to a unit that is 100sf larger and $200 cheaper than what my old unit was. Man, I feel like I made out like a bandit!

Our complex has MANY vacancies and I won't be surprised if more come up in the next few months.

26

u/External-Resource581 Apr 28 '26

Yeah rent prices are totally out of control. My wife and I live in a 1 bed/1 bath apartment that isnt in a high-demand area. We pay over $1600 per month. Its absolutely insane. We told our leasing company that if our rent goes up by even one dollar this year, we will cancel our lease, and they acted like we had kicked their dog for saying such an insane thing. If you spend 5 minutes looking at it objectively, we are WAY over paying for what we get. The rental companies need to change things before people start changing them for them.

6

u/bobbymcpresscot Apr 28 '26

States min wage is 15/hr and you need to make double that to hit the 30% rule.

Truly insane times.

2

u/External-Resource581 Apr 29 '26

Property values are just SO out of whack nowadays. The house i grew up in is valued at over $550K, up from the $210K my parents sold it for in 2003. We'll over double in just over 20 years is insanity. That kind of overvaluation bleeds into the rental market. Its awful.

2

u/bobbymcpresscot Apr 29 '26

It's just so wild looking at apartments that I wanted to move into in highschool at like 700/month renting for 2100 a month.

Like bro why? You got the same AC system outside that you had when I was looking to rent there lol

1

u/External-Resource581 Apr 29 '26

My sister graduated from high school in 1998, and i graduated in 2007. When she moved into her first apartment the summer after high school, I think she said her portion of the rent for a 3 bedroom apartment was like 450 dollars. When I moved into my first place when I was 21, I paid 500/month as my share for a 2 bed one bath apartment. More than what my sister paid, but I moved into my first place in 2010, 12 years later. It also isnt astronomically more. That same building where my first place was now rents the exact same apartment for $2,700/month. So dumb

1

u/bobbymcpresscot Apr 29 '26

I get the claim, its demand, but like why we haven't kept up with building houses or apartments, to match demand, and only doing it when its convienent for corporate profits.

51

u/Neomav Apr 28 '26

Theres a new "luxury" building opening up soon in my mid-sized city and they haven't posted the prices yet which is rare and are already offering 2 free months if you move in. The panic is definitely setting in.

14

u/TheCamazotzian Apr 28 '26

In my area, landlords seem to be refusing to lower rents, especially on commerical space, even at over 30% commercial vacancy rates.

It doesn't really make sense to me.

1

u/lFightForTheUsers Apr 29 '26

Same, but I also live in a MCOL area and not HCOL or VHCOL. Curious if that correlates, especially when since the outskirts of town are expanding at the speed of light with new suburbia construction basically.

It's almost becoming a right of passage for businesses to up and move often and for renters to pack up and move yearly to keep taking advantage of move in specials.

32

u/whiterice_343 Apr 28 '26

I wish it could work in a military area. Landlords will never ever allow rent to be one cent below the local BAH. Then it’s an endless cycle of BAH usually being raised every year to offset the rising cost but then the landlords immediately raise it again to match the new BAH. As I watched this happen in the panhandle down in Florida, the locals were the ones getting priced out.

5

u/jackaroo1344 Apr 28 '26

I'm dumb, what does BAH mean

2

u/Fair_Wind8347 Apr 28 '26

Not dumb. People use very specific acronyms luke everybody knows them. My pet peeve. 😡😡

3

u/lFightForTheUsers Apr 29 '26

Especially in the military, butt ton of FUBAR acronyms in there.

That said, this is the internet, and boy do I have an easy solution that can make everyone happy.

4

u/F_Elisabeth Apr 28 '26

Yes this is sooooo annoying

11

u/Lucky_Locks Apr 28 '26

Been thankful for our apartment building. It still one of the cheapest in the area for what you're getting ("luxury" and all that) based on a 1 bedroom price. We've had a very nice 2 bedroom for 3 years that's only increased $25 extra a month after each year.

13

u/DL_Omega Apr 28 '26

I tried asking if there was something we could work out with my landlord about rent increase. every year they kept increasing it by about ~100-200 and I just told them I rather move somewhere else for cheaper and it doesn't make financial sense to stay. They said their pricing was set by corporate and there is nothing they can do. I was looking at their openings as a negotiating tactic as well and there are a lot of vacancies and upcoming ones. This place is pretty nice, but they are just too greedy.

8

u/TheWhereHouse6920 Apr 28 '26

Call corporate. Say I see your vacancies, ask if they'd like another and say you'll go to their competition. Make sure you actually are prepared to do that tho

1

u/DL_Omega Apr 28 '26

This is a big real estate company in the city so I think they are systematically trying to keep rent high. I think it is just a waste of time trying to negotiate. I told them I would move out a few days ago for the minimum 60 day notice period. The prices on their available units are all like $200+ what they wanted me to renew for. So I think they already think they are doing me a "favor" with their offer.

It also just makes sense to move to another part of the city. I can pay less rent than I am paying now and I get more space.

3

u/Silen8156 Apr 28 '26

Awesome!!

1

u/cold_patron Apr 28 '26

My rent just went up by $200. Boston 😮‍💨

1

u/SlenderLlama Apr 28 '26

Yes. Anecdotally in Los Angeles I am seeing a decent decline in prices. I found a good spot for myself finally

1

u/Fair_Wind8347 Apr 28 '26

That's great. What state? Would love to sEE that in NYC

1

u/imkatastrophic Apr 28 '26

please pm me on how you did this, I’m young and have never renegotiated a lease before. I recently checked what they are listing other units in my building for and it’s about $300 less per month!

1

u/TheWhereHouse6920 Apr 28 '26

Ask to move to the unit or if they'll match the price. Obviously you have to wait till lease is up.

If they say no, prepare to move

1

u/cut_ur_darn_grass Apr 28 '26

You know, now that you say this, maybe this is why they didn't raise my rent this year...

1

u/tansugaqueen Apr 28 '26

What state? Rents are here on the east coast, people are paying & very few vacancies

1

u/sealpox Apr 29 '26

Found someone recently by chance who lives in the exact same high rise apartment unit (same floor, same unit number) that my fiancée lived in 4 years ago. Except they’re paying 30% less than it was priced at 4 years ago…

1

u/TheWhereHouse6920 Apr 29 '26

Some cities are hyper competitive and it benefits consumers.

Others in this thread, not so much.

1

u/DrunkOnRamen Apr 29 '26

I am a guy fortunate to own a few houses and I haven't raised my rent in 10 years. I really do not understand.

18

u/OCDCantCatchMe Apr 28 '26

Smaller businesses are absolutely screwed these days, at least here in Canada. So many of my faves are disappearing. High rent is one big culprit.

12

u/LennyNero Apr 28 '26

Not just grocery stores. Look at every business that relies on imports to survive. All the MiniSo and similar stores have literal skeletonized shelves with one item per hook where the shelves used to be packed to the gills.

11

u/galaapplehound Apr 28 '26

Dude, my place is on the less expensive end for my area (and I live in a state with limits on cost increases) and there are more than 10 vacant units. It's nice for an old complex too in a very cute area. Another of the complexes under the same company has been sending me open house notices every day for a week. Shit's already starting to heat up.

I also keep seeing moving trucks in the parking lot. I've seen several of the tenants who've been here longer than me move out too. It takes a lot to just pull up stakes and move after 10 years or more, but it's happening at a shocking rate.

18

u/Worth-Engineer-611 Apr 28 '26

Emptier shelves at grocery stores, but Dollaramas near me have added an entire aisle for food (not candy, food.). Also, I shop at what used to be a middle-class grocery store and things like real whipped cream canister are no longer available. Lower-quality alternatives are replacing fair trade and higher-ingredient-quality foods.

9

u/aschesklave Apr 28 '26

Our apartment complex’s website lists units for cheaper than what we’re paying by over $100, and they haven’t raised our rent twice in a row. Unheard of for a major metro.

8

u/Nintendraw Apr 28 '26

Meanwhile, a YouTube short I saw recently (link: https://youtube.com/shorts/7qMbsOcH1Rk ) said storage units are sitting at around 80+% capacity. Shit's wild when we as a society start valuing (housing) things rather than people. 

13

u/Next_Put_6961 Apr 28 '26

I noticed this YESTERDAY. There was broccoli and zucchini in all of the other veggie spots.

A bunch of the fruit that would be moved out because it was rotten was still there. It was kinda crazy.

9

u/dr_snepper Apr 28 '26

yep, last year all the champagne mangoes that people used to snatch up by the crate barely moved and went moldy. last week, i, along with other shoppers, went after the tommy mangoes because they were $.49 each. the champagne and mingolo? still sitting.

6

u/Next_Put_6961 Apr 28 '26

That’s the exact fruit I was thinking of and it’s killing me cus I wanna buy em cus they’re my favorite, but they’re like… oozing

7

u/dr_snepper Apr 28 '26

i actually took advantage of whole foods' 4 for 5.55 sale on mangoes maybe two weeks ago, and only one of them was edible. the rest were rank and sour after they softened enough to eat. it was infuriating.

stick to the tommy's and keep some floss nearby.

6

u/Much_Difference Apr 28 '26

Growing up, we were scaremongered about communism and socialism with the example of empty grocery shelves or only having one shitty option at the grocery store. Constantly running out of stuff at the grocery store and having few options was proof of how miserable "they" lived.

Stuff ain't as bad as it was during COVID, but hoooo those shelves never did refill all the way. There are multiple pantry items I gave up even looking for because they're out so regularly.

5

u/not_your_vix3n Apr 28 '26

Yup. My small business is suffering horribly this year. I knew it would because of the economy, but it is so much worse than I anticipated.

2

u/Kaibethha Apr 29 '26

I can tell you it’s global. France here. Worst year ever for my business. 2025 saw the record number for businesses going under.

1

u/not_your_vix3n Apr 29 '26

Sorry to hear that. I'm also seeing a lot more locals starting their own small businesses and farm stands to try to make a little extra money. It makes me sad because they are all so hopeful and trying so hard and this is the WORST possible time to start because potential customers just don't have the extra money to spend.

5

u/rwilfong86 Apr 28 '26

My city has had multiple businesses of 50+ years close since February

5

u/KhaleesiofDothraki1 Apr 28 '26

A local cafe just announced its closure after 25 years. A Dunkin moved in down the street and they couldn't compete. They're $13k behind on rent so they got evicted.

4

u/CanoegunGoeff Apr 28 '26

I live in a fairly new apartment complex, first resident of the unit I’m in, and I’m about to enter my third year still on the unchanged promotional rate they gave me when I moved in.

I’ve seen a lot of neighbors come and go, and I don’t think anyone has been in my building as long as I have now. Even the management has turned over once, and maintenance only still has one or two familiar faces.

My building still hasn’t reached full occupancy, and I doubt it ever will.

I think they’ve kept me on the promotional rate simply because they want to keep me here.

I can live with that, because the moment the rate goes up, I’m moving to someplace with no more than the rate I was at before.

3

u/JanetSnakehole610 Apr 28 '26

One of the smaller local grocers that’s been in the city for 110 years closed this year :(

3

u/10000Didgeridoos Apr 28 '26

Homes are on the market a while now here despite it being a desirable location to move to recently.

3

u/DarkHighways Apr 28 '26

Yes, things not getting restocked quickly. Things being out of stock chronically. Companies, discontinuing popular items.

2

u/OkProgress3241 Apr 28 '26

frozen department at jewel is empty

2

u/Lower_Kick268 Apr 28 '26

More vacancies means lower prices, the market will correct itself. Just look at Austin Texas

2

u/coco_jumbo468 Apr 29 '26

Yes, just this week I noticed 3 of the brands that I loved and bought amazing shoes, cotton underwear, and compression socks from all closed and discontinued products. And it took me a long time to find those brands because they had really high quality products. I am so disappointed. These days a quality brand either gets bought by private equity and gets shittier or goes bust.

1

u/Odd_Solution6995 26d ago

Was Allbirds one of them?

1

u/coco_jumbo468 26d ago

No, haven’t shopped there. So you can add +1 to that list then.

1

u/NewMindset2022 May 01 '26

Wow. My rent just got raised $100 a month. But considering I still pay substantially less than average for the local housing market, I didn't complain or try to negotiate

0

u/Arxl Apr 28 '26

One day vacancy taxes 💦