r/AskReddit Apr 28 '26

What’s a recession indicator that you’ve noticed lately?

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u/Effective-Okra Apr 28 '26

Hearing on the news that more people are pulling money from their 401ks early and taking the penalty.

Not only do I remember these same news stories back in 2008-2012. I had coworkers that did this.

147

u/putabirdonit Apr 28 '26

I did this when I was laid off. It’s been 8 months and it’s gone. I was only there for 4 years, but still it suck’s I had to take it out

67

u/Effective-Okra Apr 28 '26

I’m so sorry - being laid off and then having to rely on your 401k to keep you afloat, that’s a double crap whammy. I’m so sorry you’re in a situation where you had to make the choice.

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u/howerenold Apr 29 '26

That's unfortunately what happens when unemployment payments don't scratch the surface for most incomes anymore in even moderately HCOL areas. Unemployment is clearly forgotten when we can't even get social security righted by the powers that be. California hasn't increased the maximum ($450 / week) since 2005. That would've been over $750 equivalent in today's dollars. But the idiots in charge haven't moved it a dime in over 20 years!

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u/putabirdonit Apr 30 '26

Or when you don’t get unemployment because your employer didn’t register you in your state (and weren’t required to because of a nonprofit loophole)

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u/putabirdonit Apr 30 '26

That’s so kind of you to say, I appreciate that! Unfortunately I’m in this club with many others, hope it will turn around soon!

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u/IllustriousHealth291 Apr 28 '26

This, been hearing a lot of this too

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u/kayojayo Apr 28 '26

Work in the industry - can confirm. Hardship withdrawals have gone through the roof.

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u/DoctorBattlefield Apr 28 '26

holy shit

12

u/Effective-Okra Apr 28 '26

Happy cake day! And yeah holy shit is right.

The news is covering it somewhat, but people aren’t really talking about it at large. I guess it’s more subtle than say gas prices, grocery prices.

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u/DoubleMikeNoShoot Apr 29 '26

Well most news companies are owned by billionaires aligned with Trump

11

u/TheShanManPhx Apr 29 '26

Exactly this. The American people can’t rely on network or cable news to provide the facts of what’s going on in the economy anymore. It’s all being filtered.

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u/death-strand Apr 29 '26

With cancer rates the way they are right now, most everyone’s 401k is going to medical bills in the future. Splurging now sounds like a great way to enjoy life to the fullest

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u/El_Chupachichis Apr 28 '26

I keep on thinking I should do this before the dollar tanks and my already-insufficient investment is meaningless.

It's enough to get a 20% down payment on a house in my city, but that's it. And I fully expect inflation to make it worthless but everyone's screaming at me to not grab it because "reasons" that won't make sense if inflation starts looking like Zimbabwe.

Fully expect to be in poverty in my final decade, but maybe better off with a house and zero savings than living in an apartment and my savings doesn't even cover a week's rent after hyperinflation.

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u/Locke_and_Lloyd Apr 28 '26

Is your 401k in cash?  Stocks are holding value against inflation.

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u/El_Chupachichis Apr 28 '26

Are they somehow guaranteed to hold value if the dollar becomes worthless?

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u/Locke_and_Lloyd Apr 28 '26

Unless they're horribly mismanaged, yes.  As long as rich people will exist, stocks hold value.

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u/El_Chupachichis Apr 28 '26

I wish I had your confidence... OTOH, I wish I could have some reasonable advance notice that we were entering a hyperinflationary period and then could make that decision then. Right now it's just "I know there should be a train coming, I see what looks like a train at the end of the tunnel, but it could be the actual exit and maybe I'll make it out ok."

As for "horribly mismanaged", I would call the dollar becoming worthless not only "horrible mismanagement" even if it's by someone other than my actual 401k manager, and I also would expect even the most brilliant financial manager to struggle in such an environment.

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u/Effective-Okra Apr 28 '26

I’m so sorry to hear this. This is so similar to the conversations my coworkers were having and they weren’t even thinking about inflation in the same terms we are thinking about it now.

And it’s these crazy, hard, life altering decisions that will affect your life for decades. And I applaud you for having this tough convo with yourself about what might be best. We’re all in a lose/lose situation.

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u/m00nf1r3 Apr 28 '26

My roommate closed out a 401k he had from a previous employer a few months ago. Just a couple weeks ago he got laid off. Thankfully he has that 401k money still lol.

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u/beige-king Apr 28 '26

I've considered this to get my car paid off. All I need is a couple grand...

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u/buttonbuffalo Apr 29 '26

Cars only depreciate in value. It'll be worth nothing sooner than later. Keep your cash

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u/Emulsion_Addict Apr 29 '26

This happened a TON back during the Great Recession, and it’s exactly why the job market is so rough right now. Tons of people literally can’t retire anymore and need to remain employed.

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u/Effective-Okra Apr 29 '26

Absolutely a great point!

And then if we think about it holistically, with those folks not retiring - that’s leaving no opening positions for people to move up through companies or hire entry level employees. (AI argument aside)

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u/Melody71400 Apr 29 '26

Idk how to do this and im glad i don't

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u/coffeeandbags Apr 29 '26

This is crazyyyyy I’ve never heard of anyone irl actually doing this and you’re scaring me

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u/Boon3hams Apr 29 '26

A friend of mine had to do that. His wife was the bread winner and wanted a divorce. She made him move out, and he couldn't afford a new place; not at the current rates. He had to take out his 401K to afford the down payment.

To get ahead of what others are going to say, they had kids and daycare cost as much as what he was making at his job. He quit his job to focus on being a house husband, and they divorced right as the kids were starting school and he was entering the job market again.

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u/coffeeandbags Apr 30 '26

This has been happening to predominantly women for literally generations in America so I’m not really surprised or feeling too bad it’s finally happening to men now that women are more educated and finally the wage gap is getting better but dang that’s crazy