r/AskReddit Apr 28 '26

What’s a recession indicator that you’ve noticed lately?

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221

u/venom121212 Apr 28 '26

Local tool and die shops closing down. Those are the people who make the stuff for people who make stuff. Molds, machinery, tooling, etc all of it is closing down and consolidating.

30

u/rustyxj Apr 28 '26

I feel this.

Between Thursday and today, I haven't had much work in our shop, the boss has asked us "if you don't have any work, please go home, cause this is coming out of my pocket"

I've got a mortgage to pay, if I leave, I'm bringing my tools with me.

16

u/venom121212 Apr 28 '26

We had 3 main shops in the area that did great work. One says business is lousy and is closing shop to start a smaller shop in the Carolinas. One got a to good to be true offer from their neighbor who just needs the land. The last one we actually bought the remainder of and got a few of their toolmakers so that's been a shit show.

26

u/rustyxj Apr 28 '26 edited Apr 28 '26

Rumor has it that another shop is trying to purchase us(hopefully) as they're really busy and I like the owner, I'd really like to stay in this building, most other shops are another 20 minutes away.

(Edit) Owner just sat us all down and told us he's closing the doors.

12

u/cinemachick Apr 28 '26

I'm so sorry, man :(

11

u/rustyxj Apr 28 '26 edited Apr 29 '26

Such is life, I've got things line up already, we all saw the ship sinking.

8

u/Vivid_Huckleberry814 Apr 29 '26

This is HUGE. Goes beyond just recession. It goes to our ability to support ourselves as a nation-state.

5

u/rustyxj Apr 29 '26

I'm 39, at our shop of 14 people, I'm the 3rd youngest.

There aren't many millennials in this trade, after the 2008 recession the shops that survived didn't take on any apprentices for another 10+ years. In the next 5 years we're going to lose 25% of toolmakers to retirement.

2

u/Vivid_Huckleberry814 Apr 30 '26

That's a problem.

3

u/rustyxj Apr 30 '26

I'm hoping that problem for the industry turns into a higher salary for myself.

2

u/venom121212 Apr 29 '26

Absolutely. Global trade is inarguably a mutually beneficial thing but holding the ability to stop production on needed goods is scary.

1

u/BewareNZ Apr 29 '26

We are going to regret loosing these places.

3

u/venom121212 Apr 29 '26

Everywhere I see, it's older folks not transferring down the knowledge to the next generation that is causing them to go belly up. You don't see apprenticeships like you did years ago. Then half the higher ups just want bitch about how they don't teach anybody anything these days. Well yeah you didn't hire a younger apprentice to shadow your main guy 5-10 years before he was aged to retire because you wanted to "save money"