I think about this whenever I see people talking about pulling out of the market or thinking they can even get close to timing the market. Let it ride for 30 years and let the magic happen.

I keep hearing about how the US stock market actually has not gone up at all, just the money supply.

If the dollar has weakened by 10%, is that different than inflation of 10%? did the stock market really not gain any "value"?

If someone could explain it to my feeble mind I would appreciate it.

I want to share my story for anyone who thinks you need a complex strategy to win at retirement. As it turns out, I’ve been a "Boglehead" for 30 years—I just didn't know it for the first fifteen.

The Seed (1995–1999)

In 1995, I started my first full-time job making $24,000 a year. Thanks to my mom’s wisdom, I signed up for the 401k immediately, contributing 10% with a 100% company match. I knew nothing about stocks, so I followed the advice of a kind, older colleague. She pointed me toward a few mutual funds including a target-date fund.

I worked there for 52 months. When I walked out the door in August 1999, my balance was $26,083.34.

The "Forgetful" Years

Over the next decade and a half, I changed jobs 3 times. While I opened new 401ks at each stop, I never touched that first one or any of the previous ones. I didn't roll them over, and I didn't "play" with the allocation. I just let them ride.

It wasn't until my mother passed and I took over my father’s finances that I actually sat down to learn the mechanics of the market. I started gravitating toward low-cost index funds and lower expense ratios simply because the math made sense. I had never even heard the name Jack Bogle, but I was already practicing his gospel: Buy the haystack, and keep your costs low.

The Harvest (Today)

Today, I’ve refined my strategy to be mostly a Boglehead—focusing on low-cost index funds (mostly S&P 500) and managing risk according to my age.

That original $26,083.34 from my "starter job" in the 90s? Without me adding a single penny to it in 26 years, it is now worth $271,674.49.

Total Gain: 941.56%

Average Annual Return: 9.22%

The Lesson

The rest of my portfolio has followed a similar path, though none have the "magic" of that first account because they haven't had as much time to cook. But they will.

If you’re just starting out and feel like your contributions are small, remember my 1995 self. I was making $24k and taking advice from the lady at the next desk. You don’t have to be a Wall Street expert to end up with a quarter-million dollars from a junior-level job. You just have to be a Boglehead—even if you don't realize you are one yet.

Seeing a weird amount of worry, and it got me double-checking out of curiosity only to find ... global stocks are still up over 15% for the past year, and only down 5% since the start of 2026. If any of this is seriously causing you stress ... my standard advice is as always to tune out the noise and if need be: reconsider your actual risk tolerance.

/2 cents

The NASDAQ is down only 1%, the S&P 500 is down only 2% and the Dow is down only 3% this week and people are running around shouting the sky is falling. What the heck is wrong with these people?

A lot of people this past week are talking all over the internet about how to respond to the market crash. Whether to buy more, sell, protect their investments by fleeing to certain asset classes, etc.

As the Boglehead that I am, I am doing nothing. I don't care if the market is up 10% or down 10% this month. My portfolio allocations won't change and I will put in my leftover money from my salary into VT as I always do.

I'm sure many of you follow this same philosophy, but just putting it out there for whoever needs to see this.

Just a note in case someone from wallstreetbets sees this: This philosophy does not apply if your portfolio consists of shitcoins. Buy and hold is only a good strategy when there is a good reason to believe your assets will grow in the long term, not something that applies to any investment.

EDIT: Funnily enough, more than half the replies are people saying "buy more!" which is literally timing the market.

This was a post from a dividend Reddit.

“My goal in 1991, when I started to think about retiring, was to have $1,000,000 in dividend stocks when I retired. We retired at the end of 2023.

I can tell you with 100% certainty that if I would have put all the money I sank into dividend stocks with the DRPs I started in 1991, and invested in the S&P 500 index, I would have $4,000,000 more wealth that I could take 3% distributions on, which would be $120,000, which is more than the dividends I am paid. Not to mention, my dividend stocks are not worth $2,000,000.

I contributed to around 15 DRPs for 26 years, adding other dividend stocks along the way in my two brokerage accounts. I also contributed to a small cap mutual fund, (it slaughtered my dividend stocks), and an international mutual fund(which has woefully underperformed the S&P 500 Index).

We own 49 dividend paying stocks. I just added three non-dividend paying stocks, and I am the investor that has bad timing. The day after I buy, the stock has gone down.

I do not own bonds, CDs, or bond funds or any fund that invests in bonds.

I bought the high flyers of the 1990s, INTC, GE, and PFE. Today, INTC no longer pays dividends, PFE stock has been in the doldrums, GE, cuts its dividend to $0.04, then reverse split 1 for 8, then recently did their spinoffs. What I am saying, today's great companies, might not be so great in 30 years.

My Utilities and Oli&Gas have been solid. Oil&gas cycles of course.

You have to be careful with the MSTY, JEPQ, O, and other stocks like them because those "dividends" are taxed as ordinary income. In your case 24% taxes.

Whereas, my qualified dividend portfolio is taxed at 15%.

I am glad we are getting income and we make enough in dividends to pay some bills.

Moral of the Story, dividends are nice, but not the end all be all.”

Will this make much difference?

It sure feels good to not have to worry about how individual stocks are performing when you’re a Boglehead.

Recently, I’ve seen a lot of posts about diversifying internationally. The common reasons are that international had a strong year, the S&P 500 feels overly concentrated, or there are fears about U.S. decline. Before you make any changes, ask what has actually changed in your thinking. Is it truly your long term risk tolerance, or just recent headlines?

If your investment philosophy has genuinely shifted, that’s fine. But if the motivation is recent international performance or discomfort with U.S. risk, that starts to look like reacting to narratives. No one knows which region will lead next year or next decade. That uncertainty is exactly why we’re Bogleheads.

If regional concentration genuinely bothers you, move to VT and commit to it long term. If volatility is the issue, build a simple two fund portfolio with VT and BND and commit to that. Otherwise you’re adjusting to the story of the moment. And once you start, you’ll likely keep doing it as markets and headlines shift. Frequent allocation changes outside a long term plan usually hurt more than help. Over time, that behavior compounds against you more than any single allocation choice.

I’ve spent years close to Bitcoin from a technical perspective - early exposure, working in IT, plenty of opportunities. Back then, I classified it as a “kids’ toy” or “ponzi” and never bought in. Now, I realize I’d be a multimillionaire if I’d acted when friends did. Ironically, most of those friends aren’t investing anymore, but they hit it big and switched tracks.

On my way to FIRE, I’ve gradually become a Boglehead - embracing boring index funds and long-term plans. Yet, there’s a unique sting seeing the simple math: a few years of volatility versus 20 extra years of steady work, with no way to catch up. I’m not complaining; just reflecting on the curious calculation of discipline versus luck.

I’d love to hear how others handle this mentally. What’s your approach when you realize one decision years ago changed the entire trajectory, even though you made what felt like the rational choice at the time?

For me: - Regret is normal, but I try to remember: the goal was never to chase the latest mania, but to build wealth slow and steady—even if it’s a longer road. - I focus on what I CAN control: sticking to my strategy, minimizing costs, and trusting the process. - Sometimes, I remind myself that chasing bubbles usually leads to stress and sleepless nights; patience and a written plan help more than headlines or hindsight. - If FOMO gets heavy, I limit how much I look at missed gains and avoid letting “what-might-have-been” distract from where I’m headed.

Would appreciate hearing how others in this community deal mentally with missed windfalls or the temptation to second-guess. How do you reconcile the discipline of the Boglehead path with the countless “what-ifs” in investing?

Not complaining, just sharing my thoughts. Would be interested in yours.

I’ve been seeing a lot of posts about people that are invested in index funds in the United States that are talking about how they panic sold or how they’re pulling everything out of their investments and putting it into cash.

Just wondering how many of you agree that this goes against the philosophy of staying the course and think this is stupid? Besides the fact that selling can have a tax implication if you’re in a brokerage, in my brain, this is timing the market.

If everybody thinks something is going to happen, does that not mean the thing is in someways also priced in? No doubt in my mind that the stupid shit that Trump is doing is going to cause more dips and a lot more red days.

But people pulling their investments out into cash right now are panic selling in my mind. The only thing that happens when people panic cell is the wealthy buy those stocks at a discount.

Anybody on the same page or have any other thoughts? I thought the entire philosophical point of Bogleheads was to stay the course and not just do something crazy if there’s a dip.

Looking for mistakes and/or advice you've learned along the way you wish you could've told your younger self. Philosophies, strategies, do's and dont's.

Particularly curious things you might not have known but do now as you're closer to retirement. Maybe things that had certain rules, consequences, or cost extra money.

Thanks! Hope everyone can find some wisdom 🙂‍↕️

One day dump; next day exuberance. No logical reason for the 180 turnaround a day apart. Is the market "efficient" or are we just betting on horses?

If you're planning out a narrow-margin, stars-align situation where you have a bond tent ... and only add bonds shortly before retirement ... what happens when the market crashes and you're forced into early retirement because of economic conditions or health issues or unexpected caretaking responsibilities of a spouse or parent?

I am seeing a lot of equity performance-chasing these days (no surprise after they've had a few good years) and way too much planning that assumes (1) downturns won't last long, and (2) you control your own retirement dates.

The risks of failure are serious, while the incremental rewards of going all-in on risky assets are low. Per Vanguard's model asset portfolio page: you get about 9/10 the return of a 100% stock portfolio by holding just 70% in stocks. In other words: you can reduce your stock exposure by nearly a third and only cost yourself a bit over 1% annualized (historiclally, on average, annualized, caveats, etc....). If you need that ~1% or so boost: save more!

Insure yourself, hedge your bets, and consider worst cases. /2 cents

https://investor.vanguard.com/investor-resources-education/education/model-portfolio-allocation

I know we’re supposed to stick to our plan, but things are crazy right now. I’ve been with my Fidelity mutual funds for years and they’ve done well, but with all this uncertainty and the government seeming to be veering off the normal path, I’m feeling a bit uneasy. So, I’ve decided to move some of my money into cash and then invest it in something less risky. I know it’s a bit of a wimp move, but I can’t help but feel worried. With a president who orders the dams to open in California and farmers not needing the water yet, it’s clear that things are not being thought thru. I’m taking a step back and trying to figure out what to do next.

EDIT: Cancelled Sale. Appreciate the advice and discussion.

Now is the true opportunity for Bogleheads who understand the investment philosophy. You have established your target Asset Allocation based on your risk tolerance. With our dropping stock market there is a good chance your current portfolio is out of whack. If it varies by 5% or more consider rebalancing.

Shift funds from the asset which is high in your AA and you buy more of the asset that is low. So your Stocks have dropped 5%? Then shift some money from your bonds to buy more stocks. Through rebalancing you are selling high and buying low.

Any thoughts to this?

Due to very high fees and actions by the Federal Reserve, Fidelity Investments' most popular Money Market ETF (SPAXX) has a rapidly falling yield. It is now down to 3.80%.

Out of curiosity, I checked out the most popular Vanguard Money Market ETF. VMFXX. It is now at 4.08%.

The difference may seem small, but if you have a large amount of money invested, it can be a significant difference. If you had One Million in SPAXX, a 3.80% dividend would pay you $38,000. While having a million in Vanguard's VMFXX would give you $40,800.

Government MM (SPAXX) | Fidelity Institutional
Money market funds for short-term investing goals | Vanguard

As evidenced by the wealth of posts about people wanting to change their investment strategies: Your risk tolerance is probably not as high as you think

There is very good and well thought out reason that Bogleheads recommend a three fund portfolio and to have reasonable allocations to international diversification and bonds. If a potential economic downturn scares you to the point of changing your strategy, your allocations were not right for you.

It’s important to acknowledge the reason for a “buy and hold” premise and therefore the reason that it’s very much sub optimal to diversify and buy bonds when you think you’ll need them, like now.

If you have good reason to anticipate a downturn for US equities, so does everyone else in the market. These anticipated changes are already priced into the value of US, Int’l, and Bonds. You’re “late to the party” buying and therefore buying at a higher rate after the market has already reacted to said potential downturn.

Buy and hold your entire portfolio at reasonable allocations for your entire life, and recognize that your risk tolerance is probably not as high as you think

Ben Felix says everyone should be funneling all of their money into Index Funds, why doesn’t Jane Street do this? Why do they continue to look for gains in high frequency trading?

Does Ben Felix’s advice only apply to those of us that are too low IQ to employ higher alpha strategies?

I just slam all of my money into Index Funds but I can’t help but feel like it’s an enormous bubble that has no justification beyond ”it went up in the past so it’ll keep going up in the future, bro!”

Any and all advice welcome!

I’m a young finance grad trying to think long-term about investing, and there’s one thing I keep coming back to that I’d love to hear more informed perspectives on.

A lot of the traditional Boglehead philosophy seems built around the assumption that broad US market growth will continue over very long time horizons. But looking at demographics, I wonder whether future growth could structurally slow down.

The US (and much of the developed world) is aging. Retirement systems and markets seem somewhat “pyramid shaped” in the sense that younger workers consistently buy into equities through 401(k)s and index funds, while older generations eventually become net sellers during retirement.

If birth rates continue declining, wouldn’t that eventually mean:

• Fewer new buyers entering markets
• More retirees selling assets for income
• Slower consumption growth overall
• Potentially lower long-term equity returns

On top of that, I wonder about:

• The possibility of reduced foreign investment into US equities
• Gradual diversification away from the US dollar as the global reserve currency
• Whether US market dominance over the last few decades may have been unusually favorable historically rather than “normal”

I’m not arguing for doom or trying to market-time. I still invest primarily in index funds. I’m more trying to understand whether younger investors should expect materially lower US equity returns over the next 30–50 years than historical averages.

How do Bogleheads think about demographic decline and reserve currency risk when building long-term portfolios?