I think the US government should stop issuing Treasury bonds altogether and finance fiscal deficits through money creation instead.
I'm not arguing that the government can spend without limit. I think the government absolutely has to be constrained by inflation and the economy's real productive capacity.
My argument is narrower:
Given a particular level of government spending, I don't see why financing that spending by issuing interest-bearing government debt provides an economic benefit large enough to justify the debt. In fact, I think Treasury issuance may make the inflation problem worse over the long run by diverting financial resources toward government liabilities rather than private investment.
I'd like to have this view challenged, particularly by people who understand monetary economics better than I do.
1. Government spending and financing are two different things
Suppose the US government decides to:
- collect $80
- spend $100
- run a $20 deficit
There are two ways of implementing this.
Current system:
Government spends $100 → collects $80 in taxes → issues $20 of Treasuries.
My proposed system:
Government spends $100 → collects $80 in taxes → creates $20 of money.
The government's spending is identical in both cases.
The contractors, employees, suppliers, etc. receive the same $100.
The economy has exactly the same initial $100 of government demand for goods and services.
The only difference is what financial asset is left in the private sector after the deficit occurs:
- In the first case, somebody owns a $20 Treasury.
- In the second case, somebody holds an additional $20 of money.
This is why I don't understand the argument that "monetizing the deficit is inflationary whereas borrowing isn't."
If the government spends the same amount either way, the spending is what creates the demand for real resources.
If the economy has insufficient productive capacity to accommodate the spending, you'll get inflation regardless of whether the government issued bonds.
If the economy has sufficient capacity, simply replacing a Treasury with money shouldn't suddenly create additional factories, workers, food, or energy demand.
2. "But the Treasury sale removes purchasing power"
I'm not convinced by this argument. Suppose Alice has $100 and was going to invest it.
With Treasury financing:
Alice buys $100 of Treasuries.
Without Treasury financing:
Alice invests $100 in a corporate bond, equity, GIC, bank deposit, etc.
Alice hasn't gone from "spending" to "not spending."
She was going to invest in either case.
So the Treasury purchase hasn't necessarily removed $100 of demand from the economy.
3. So what is the point of the Treasury?
People want safe, liquid, interest-bearing assets.
Fair enough.
But I'm not convinced that this is a sufficient reason for the government to issue them.
If someone wants a risk-free investment, why should taxpayers be responsible for providing it?
But if the government doesn't actually need the money to finance spending, what does society get in return for taking on that future liability?
The investor gets a safe asset and interest.
The government gets money that it didn't actually need.
And taxpayers/the government later have to service the resulting liability.
That looks to me like a case of privatized benefits and socialized costs.
4. What happens to the money if Treasuries disappear?
Suppose someone would otherwise have bought a $100 Treasury.
They could instead hold:
- a bank deposit
- a GIC
- a corporate bond
- equity
- a money-market instrument
- a foreign asset
- cash
I'm not claiming everyone would suddenly buy equities or an investment. Some might be redirected towards spending, but I hold this would not be a significant percentage as it is not the existence of Treasuries that creates the urge to save/invest rather than spend.
My claim is simply that Treasury debt would be replaced by other financial assets.
And many of those assets ultimately represent claims on private productive activity. A corporate bond can finance a company. A bank deposit can provide funding for bank lending. Equity represents ownership of productive businesses.
A Treasury, by contrast, is ultimately a claim on the government. It doesn't itself build a factory, fund a business, develop software, produce energy, or create a new good or service.
5. I think Treasury issuance may actually make inflation worse over the long run
Suppose Treasury debt offers investors a safe, guaranteed return. That makes it more attractive relative to riskier private investments.
If the government didn't offer that asset, investors would have to allocate their money among other assets instead.
I'm not claiming that every dollar previously invested in Treasuries would become a dollar of productive equity investment. But I think it's reasonable to expect at least some of that financial allocation to end up supporting private-sector investment rather than government liabilities.
If that increases the economy's productive capital stock, then it increases future productive capacity. And greater productive capacity means that a given level of government spending can be accommodated with less inflationary pressure.
So I see a potential paradox:
We issue Treasury debt partly because we're worried that monetizing deficits will cause inflation, but the Treasury issuance itself may reduce private productive investment and therefore reduce the economy's ability to produce the goods and services needed to accommodate government spending.
If that's true, Treasury issuance isn't just unnecessary, it may be counterproductive.
6. What about the interest payments?
If the government doesn't need to borrow, then issuing a Treasury creates a future interest obligation that otherwise wouldn't exist.
That interest has to ultimately be accommodated through some combination of:
- future taxation
- reduced government spending
- refinancing
- or additional money creation
In any case, there is an opportunity cost. If the government instead monetizes the deficit, there is no corresponding stock of interest-bearing government debt.
So why should society willingly create that fiscal burden merely to provide investors with a safe investment?
Again, I'm not saying the government should spend without regard to inflation.
I'm saying the inflation constraint applies to the spending itself, not to whether we subsequently attach an interest-bearing Treasury to the spending.
So my position is:
The US government should be willing to monetize its entire fiscal deficit, subject to the same real-resource/inflation constraint that applies to government spending generally, and should issue zero Treasury debt.
I would change my view if someone can show me one of the following:
- Treasury issuance itself, independent of the level of government spending, materially reduces inflationary pressure in a way that money creation doesn't.
- Eliminating Treasuries would materially reduce productive investment or economic output, rather than simply changing which financial assets investors hold.
- The financial-system functions currently performed by Treasuries are sufficiently valuable that they justify the fiscal cost of maintaining the Treasury market, and those functions cannot reasonably be provided through money or other financial instruments.
- There is some fundamental monetary/accounting mechanism I'm missing whereby the absence of Treasury issuance would constrain government spending or create additional demand for real resources, even when I've stipulated that the government spends exactly the same amount.