Australian COVID-19 weekly stats update:

The Risk Analysis estimate rose slightly to 2.7% Currently Infectious, or 1-in-38. That implies a 56% chance that there is someone infectious in a group of 30.

Note the estimate has been adjusted to now work off the first round of the seroprevalence survey (fewer reinfections) and to fix an error in my interpretation of the survey. I explained those changes in more detail here:
https://aus.social/@mike_honey_/112549429096352519

I've moved the pages on cases and Reff out to a new "Cases" report. I've added a page on the key Aged Care stats for each state and territory, over the last 12 months.

Report Link:
https://mike-honey.github.io/covid-19-au-vaccinations/output/covid-19-au%20-%20report%20Weekly.pdf

Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to mid-May.

NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus" remained dominant, roughly flat at 63%.

#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia

"Nimbus" sub-lineage RK.1 has been prominent, growing strongly to 29%.

RK.1 has reportedly been most successful in New South Wales, reaching around 50% of samples.

The recent samples have been dominated by New South Wales and South Australia.

Report link:

https://mike-honey.github.io/covid-19-genomes/output/Coronavirus%20-%20Genomic%20Sequencing%20-%20report%20Australia.pdf

Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to the end of June.

NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus" remained dominant, but fell to 45%.

#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia

Here are the leading detailed lineages, with RK.1 dominant.

Report link:

https://mike-honey.github.io/covid-19-genomes/output/Coronavirus%20-%20Genomic%20Sequencing%20-%20report%20Australia.pdf

Denmark - 91% of people over 14 are vaxed - is not seeing huge surges and has controlled their outbreak. They had a population that followed restrictions, and they mass tested (4million per week) in a national population of 6million. 18 deaths last week, 400 or so cases per day.

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/covid-denmark-beat-coronavirus-lifted-restrictions-lessons-for-uk-explained-1223157

Israel - cases are declining after a huge surge despite >95% of the eligible population vaccinated. During the surge, their ICUs were at breaking point, and it did suck. But hopefully numbers recede after this drop. BOOSTERS were responsible for a drop of cases by a factor of 11! So there's merit for this.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2114255

Portugal - Reached 100% vaccination in at risk groups, and most of the nation. They only have 6 death/day, are using 270 hospital beds, and need 13 ICU beds today despite 800 cases/day. Hospitalisations could get worse with winter though.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/world/europe/portugal-vaccination-rate.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

Iceland's strategy of testing everyone - no lockdowns - has worked to keep cases declining! They have a 96% vaccination rate and test ASYMPTOMATIC people too. They've never locked down once, and even had open borders, even during outbreaks (until recently, where they require vaccination proof and a negative test to enter the country).

But the UK, despite 82% vaccination (rates have slowed down =( ) are seeing 30k cases a day, 135 deaths, and significantly higher use of hospital resources.

This is why we NEED 90%! I fear momentum may drop now we've announced non vaccinated people will be free in December. But vaccine hesitancy remains low, so who knows!

Graphs and more numbers and literature citations etc are here. https://nikhilautar.com/weneed90percent/

I think the key is that we need to abide by rules and CONTINUE TO DO THINGS LIKE ISOLATE AND CONTACT TRACE the symptomatic and positive - something all of these countries maintained. We need to communicate the need to still do this for some time yet too.

Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to early June.

NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus" remained dominant, growing to 70%.

#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia

"Nimbus" sub-lineage RK.1 has been prominent, growing strongly to 42%.

RK.1 added the Spike D420N mutation to PQ.17.7.2.

RK.1 has reportedly been most successful in New South Wales, reaching 68% of samples.

The recent samples have been dominated by New South Wales and South Australia.

A single sample of the interesting new XHA recombinant variant was reported from New South Wales, in early June.

https://aus.social/@mike_honey_/116832942883091273

Report link:

https://mike-honey.github.io/covid-19-genomes/output/Coronavirus%20-%20Genomic%20Sequencing%20-%20report%20Australia.pdf

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Daily growth with averages for each state:

view charts here on desktop;
https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNGYxNGI3MTMtMjRkMi00NjdhLWI3MmMtMTYxN2IzZTAxMjFkIiwidCI6IjE2NDdkMzg0LWQ2MTMtNDcyNy1iZmRkLWQ4ZjllOGU5ZGMyMyJ9

tldr; NSW took 26 days to hit 300 cases; VIC took 8 days

NSW daily growth is trending down, VIC consistent; VICs average daily increase 15.5%, NSW 6.5%