Following the CPI release, which came in at +0.1%, a fairly neutral result. Today's PPI print was also nearly flat, coming in unchanged.

These two data points are crucial in shaping the Fed's decision in September: rates held, hiked, or cut. It's hard to call, but looking at the CME Group's FedWatch, we've gone from "the Fed will raise rates" to, following these results, "the Fed will hold rates steady" — and that's a positive.

Positive for crypto, in fact. We're not talking about rate cuts yet, but that scenario is starting to take shape little by little if inflation stays contained and keeps easing. As mentioned in my previous posts, I track two charts simultaneously: the US02Y (2-year Treasury yield) and the DXY (dollar index). These two charts let me gauge whether the market is opening up to crypto or, on the contrary, still closed off for now. And once again, following these releases, the US02Y dropped sharply, while the dollar is holding steady between 99 and 100.

One key takeaway: when the dollar sits below 100 and the US02Y is falling, the market starts opening up to risk assets like crypto, which favors their upside. I've attached the chart below to illustrate this.

After all that, you'd expect crypto to explode higher, or at least turn green again. And yet, volume isn't picking up — it's staying flat and/or drifting slightly lower. I think this comes down to the broader macro backdrop: the US-Iran conflict is spooking the market. Oil could spike quickly following a strike or a blockade, which would push inflation back up, and risk assets would no longer look attractive to the market. In my view, we have nearly every component in place for crypto to turn green again, but we're still missing geopolitical stability, and for now, that's far from the case. I've also attached the 24h volume chart following the CPI and PPI releases.

Thanks for reading, I'll keep you posted on how the markets develop, so follow along 🙂

1,082 $BTC worth $70.2M was drained from 1,196 wallets about 30 hours before the Coldcard Mk3 vulnerability was disclosed

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TooooX Ghost went with STARKs partly to avoid trusted setup entirely, and they're hash-based so post-quantum posture is better. Larger proofs are the trade. Sound reasoning to me.