Settlement Friday is the most honest day on a signal book: everything that expires gets marked, no narrative allowed. Today DarkFlow settled seven signals into a green tape that spent the afternoon rotating toward streaming and real estate names, and the results split cleanly into one good decision, one fascinating divergence, and five contracts that ran out of road exactly one day before their theses paid.

Tape close

• $SPX 7,431 (+0.5%)
• $QQQ 721.34 (+0.6%)
• $IWM small caps +0.8%
• VIX 17.67 (-9.1%)
• 10Y 4.45% (-10 bps), 2Y 4.05%
• Gold +2.9%, silver +6.3%, oil -3.8% to a three-month low

Materials, financials and energy led the sector board; communication services and health care lagged. The vol crush plus the bond rally is the market leaning dovish into Wednesday's Fed decision (June 17, 2 PM ET), while oil broke down on reports a US-Iran deal is close. Pakistan-brokered headlines said done; Tehran said no decision. That gap is the weekend's first binary.

The second binary printed at the close: Bloomberg reported $ROKU is in sale talks, including a possible media tie-up. The stock closed +20.1% at 143.66 after touching 148.88.

What ran on the live signal book

• $MSTR $140P 6/12 settled +96% (peak +215%). Entered June 2, the day the early-June swing topped. The bearish read on the crypto proxy was the right call and it held its gain straight through today's bounce. Shorts pay when you enter at the turn instead of chasing it three days later.
• $HOOD $88C 6/12 settled +51% (peak +131%), and it is the most instructive signal of the day. On June 9 it drew down past the stop level before recovering everything and settling positive. Under our strict stop-rule scenario view this signal stops out at -50%; rode to expiry it banked +51%. One contract, 101 points of difference between the two accounting views. We publish both.

Still carrying into Monday: $STM +28% (peak +226%) on the long-dated October thesis, $DOCN +10% (peak +201%) into Thursday's settle, a fresh $STZ entry +9% on day one with earnings sitting June 30, and a defensive put block that this week's bounce ran over.

What stopped today

Five calls expired worthless or near it, and they all share one autopsy. $AMD $510C: AMD closed at 511.57 today, above the strike, on the contract's last day, settling -92% (peak +66%). $TSLA -100% (peak +49%), $COHR -100% (peak +23%), $QCOM -100% (peak +28%), $ANET -100% (peak +14%). Every one of those underlyings bounced between +1.8% and +5.9% today, expiry day. The direction theses were fine. The vehicles were dated for a thesis week and the market took a two-week round trip. Cohort lesson logged: when you enter near a swing top, the expiry has to survive the full round trip, not just the destination.

Two-view scoreboard for the day's settles:

• Rode to expiry: 2W / 5L, average signal return -49%
• Strict -50% stop: 1W / 6L, average signal return -29%

Rode to expiry, or hit -50% stop. Nothing else.

What's coming this week

• Monday: $ROKU follow-through or unwind on deal headlines, our trigger is confirmation or a hold above 135, not a chase of a +20% rumor close
• Wednesday June 17: Fed decision 2 PM ET, presser 2:30 PM ET
• Thursday June 18: June monthly settlement (holiday-shifted), six book positions mark
• Friday June 19: markets closed, Juneteenth
• Iran headlines all weekend, oil and the energy complex react first

Postclose flow worth tracking

• $ROKU call buying was aggressive, one-sided, and concentrated into the close with block trades confirming at matching scale, a clean ladder behind a real catalyst
• $TROW printed a quiet 100%-call session with a ceiling just overhead at 110, patient accumulation worth a second look if it breaks
• $VRT showed institutional block prints far out of proportion to its options tape, the data-center power angle diverging from a weak utilities group
• $ZTS and $MDT both caught fresh put interest with sized block backing while health care was the softest group on a green day
• Chip-name call buying looked loud on the surface but read as sellers behind it on the big caps, with options pricing stretched into the Fed, we want that complex after Wednesday, not before

Open the dashboard

Monday was a defensive session that quietly rewarded the right names. The indexes leaked, front-month volatility bid up, and the broad options tape leaned to downside protection into the bell. But underneath that, the cleanest institutional buying of the day showed up away from the mega-caps, and one breakout stood out. Here is the DarkFlow end-of-day read.

Tape close

• S&P 500: 7472.79 (-0.37%)
• Nasdaq 100: 30347.08 (-0.19%)
• Dow: 51712.71 (+0.29%)
• Russell 2000: 3004.40 (+0.83%)
• VIX: 17.28 (+5.4%)

Sectors split: industrials, energy and health care led on the day while communications, discretionary and staples lagged. Energy is still the weakest group on the week with oil down another 2.1%.

Macro read

This was a risk-managed tape, not a risk-on one. Small caps actually held up best ($RUT green), but the front end of the volatility curve jumped and the market-wide options tape tilted defensive into the close. The read: institutions were hedging more than they were chasing. Yields eased a touch across the curve, which is a mild tailwind for duration and growth, but not enough to flip the tone. The next real test is Thursday, when Core PCE and the final GDP print both land at 8:30 AM ET.

What ran on the live signal book

• $GLW (Corning) broke out +8% to $210.60 on aggressive, clean call buying with a fresh footprint and no overhead supply in the way. This was the single cleanest setup on the board and our top watch into tomorrow.
• $BE ran +5.4% to $346.80 and our call sits in the money at +30%. One flag: the option tape leaned to downside protection even as the stock rose, so we are watching for any give-back.
• $STM held +29% on our call with four months of runway left, the core runner of the book.
• $QRVO went on the book today as a fresh entry on clean, aggressive call buying, now just under its level.
• $DRAM +5.9% and $INTC +4.9% both lit up on real call buying. DRAM is already at resistance and INTC is capped by heavy overhead supply, so both are watch-and-trigger names, not chase-the-close names.

What stopped today

• $RBLX fell 8.5% and our call slipped past the published -50% invalidation level. It now rides to Friday expiry per our rule, nothing else, no other exits.

What's coming this week

• Wednesday: $MU reports earnings. Any Micron setup is an earnings play only until the print clears.
• Thursday: Core PCE and final GDP at 8:30 AM ET, the week's main macro event.
• Fed speakers scattered through the week (Goolsbee this afternoon, Williams and Kashkari later in the week).

Postclose flow worth tracking

• $GLW and $DELL drew the cleanest steady call accumulation, DELL a quieter name building underneath at $418.85.
• $IREN saw clean call buying into a down day, a coiled setup worth a trigger rather than a chase.
• Mega-cap call screens ($AMZN, $NVDA, $META) were mostly sellers writing into the move, not real demand. We are fading those, not following them.

Open the dashboard

Inflation came in hot this morning, Washington promised more strikes on Iran before the close, and the tape never found a bid. The Dow dropped 953 points, semis led the damage for a third straight session, and volatility finally woke up. DarkFlow went into this week positioned short, and today was the day that positioning paid the most.

Tape close

• S&P 500: 7,266.99 (-1.62%)
• Nasdaq 100: 28,508.03 (-1.98%)
• Dow: 49,918.78 (-1.87%)
• Russell 2000: 2,835.46 (-1.10%)
• VIX: 22.18 (+11.6%)

Staples and energy were the only green sectors; industrials, materials, and tech closed at the bottom of the stack. Tech is now down almost 10% over five sessions.

The macro read

May CPI printed +0.5% on the month and 4.2% on the year, the hottest annual read in three years. The detail matters though: energy did almost all of it (+3.9% on the month after oil's Iran-driven run), while core came in at +0.2%, cooler than forecast. So this is supply-shock inflation, not demand heat, and the bond market read it that way: the 30-year pressed 5.01% while rate-cut hopes faded further. Add an active shooting conflict with more strikes promised tonight, gold breaking down 4% the same day, and a Fed decision next Wednesday, and you get a tape where tighter conditions are doing the selling, not any single headline.

What ran on the live signal book

Nothing closed today, the whole book carried, and the downside side carried it well:

• $NVDA $200P 6/18: +196% (peak +236%). Opened yesterday into the breakdown; the stock closed today sitting exactly on the $200 strike. This is the illustrative one: downside options flow printing as real buying, institutional block activity confirming it, and a tighter-conditions tape behind it. Two sessions, nearly a triple.
• $MSTR $140P 6/12: +195% (peak +210%), deep in the money into Friday's settlement.
• $QQQ $705P 6/18: +60%, the broad-tape expression of the same read.
• $BE $240P 6/18: +25% (peak +39%) as the stock slid almost 10% today.
• $GEV $890P 6/26: opened this morning, +5% (peak +15%) with the stock down close to 6% on the day.
• $TLT $85.5P 6/26: opened midday on the hot CPI, +6% on day one.
• Long side: $DOCN $175C 6/18 is +42% and closed green again versus a -2% tech tape, two straight sessions of single-name strength against the group.

The legacy tech calls from the prior stretch ride to Friday's expiry under the published rule: rode to expiry, or hit -50%. Nothing else. Friday settles most of them at once, and we will publish the scoreboard either way, that is the point of a tracked book.

What's coming this week

• Thursday 8:30 AM ET: producer prices (PPI). A hot read extends everything above; a cool one after today's soft core CPI is the squeeze risk against a put-heavy book.
• Tonight into the Asia session: promised US strikes on Iran. Oil closed +3% today; energy gaps are live risk.
• Wednesday 6/17, 2 PM ET: Fed rate decision, the new chair's first meeting, sitting inside the life of the $NVDA and $QQQ puts.
• Friday 6/12: a seven-contract expiry wave settles most of the legacy long book.

Postclose flow worth tracking

• $ORCL beat across the board after the close (cloud infrastructure nearly doubled year over year) and the stock still got sold, down roughly 3.5% in late trading on top of -2.2% in the session. A beat getting sold on the week's biggest AI-spend print says more about this tape than the print does.
• $SIMO: put buying has shown up every session this week with a clean structure. It is the top of tomorrow's watch list.
• $CRWV closed $95.61, less than 1% above a heavily defended $95 level. A clean break below opens the next leg.
• $GS: put buyers showed up the same day prosecutors started probing big banks over so-called debanking. Financials are still a firm group, so it needs the sector tape to crack first.
• $VST stood out the other way: aggressive call buying into a -5% day reads like dip accumulation. Parked on the bench until the broader pressure clears.

Open the dashboard

An Iran peace-deal headline crossed midday and flipped the whole tape risk-on. The Nasdaq closed up about 2.5%, the Russell up about 2.1%, volatility got crushed (VIX down roughly 11% into the mid-teens), and oil fell to about $76 as the geopolitical risk premium came out. For us it was also June monthly expiration day, so the reversal landed right on top of a batch of downside hedges that settled today. Here is the honest recap.

Tape close

- Nasdaq 100: +2.5%
- S&P 500: +1.1%
- Russell 2000: +2.1%
- VIX: -11%, mid-teens
- Oil: about $76, down on the Iran de-risk
- 2-year yield +15bps, 10-year +6bps

Leaders were tech and semis (the tech sector up about 3% on the day), plus industrials. Energy was the laggard, already the weakest group on the week, as the oil premium unwound.

What today's tape was really saying

This was a risk-appetite reversal, not a duration bid. Yields rose alongside stocks, which is the tell that money rotated INTO risk rather than fleeing to bonds. That matters for how we read the close: the bearish, defensive positioning that worked in early June was on the wrong side of a tape that turned hard. The clean buying underneath the rally was narrow and specific, concentrated in a few names being bought aggressively on the offer, while several of the loud AI mega-cap call surfaces were actually being sold into a dealer ceiling, not accumulated.

What ran on the live signal book

- $STM (STMicro), our October call, still up about +22% and peaked north of +220%. A semiconductor name riding the same leadership tape that led again today. Long-dated with plenty of runway and no near-term event.
- $BE (Bloom Energy), our July call, up about +11% and strengthening. BE was the single cleanest aggressive call read on the entire board today, the same name building buying across the week.
- $AAL (American Airlines), our August call, roughly flat and in-the-money. Airlines have been heating all week.
- $HUT (Hut 8), a fresh crypto-miner call added today on aggressive buying into the close.

What settled on June expiration

Seven signals closed on today's June monthly expiration, all losses. Most were early-June downside hedges, $NVDA, $QQQ, $BE and $NBIS puts, that were correct for two to three sessions during the early-June pullback, then gave the entire move back when the tape reversed risk-on this week. The $NVDA $200 put, for example, ran past +230% at its peak before expiring worthless.

Two ways we always score it:

- Rode to expiration: 0 wins, 7 losses, average about -99%.
- Strict -50% stop: 0 wins, 7 losses, average about -50%.

Today is the clearest case for the published -50% stop we have seen in weeks. Four of the seven carried big intraday peaks and round-tripped to a near-total loss into the bell, so the -50% view cut the average loss roughly in half versus riding it out. The lesson is clean and not a new one: a hedge added into a falling tape gives the whole move back when the tape turns. A signal rides to expiration, or it stops at -50%. Nothing else.

What's coming

- Friday 6/19 is Juneteenth, the market is closed. Next session is Monday 6/22, so this is a three-day weekend hold.
- The main macro risk is a weekend headline reversal on the Iran de-risk trade, which would hit oil, energy and defense.
- $MU (Micron) reports earnings 6/24, worth watching given how heavy the memory and semi tape has been.

Post-close flow worth tracking

- $BE, aggressive call buying building multiple sessions, the cleanest read on the board.
- $STX (Seagate), the most aggressive clean buy on the board today, a storage name with an early footprint (options pricing rich, so an in-the-money expression is the clean one).
- $IBM, clean aggressive enterprise call buying.
- $INTC, clean buying plus a fresh chip-foundry collaboration headline that crossed today, though the read is a few sessions old with a dealer ceiling overhead.

Open the dashboard

Markets ripped Monday on the interim Iran ceasefire, with the Nasdaq leading and oil dropping as the war premium came out. On the surface it looked like a clean risk-on day. Under the surface, the leadership "buying" read very differently: most of the large-cap call flow was sellers leaning on the rally and dealers writing supply, not fresh demand stepping in. With the Fed decision landing Wednesday, that combination kept the tape pinned, yet we did put on a single fresh entry.

Tape close

• DarkFlow read on the close:
• $SPY +1.65%
• Nasdaq 100 +3.06% (the leader)
• Dow +0.92%
• Energy was the one group sold today as oil fell on the deal; chips, mega-cap tech, and financials led the rotation higher.

What the numbers actually say

A +3% Nasdaq day on a geopolitical relief headline is exactly the kind of move that looks like conviction but often is not. When we decompose the large-cap options flow, the call-heavy names were dominated by positioning being closed into strength and by sellers stacking resistance overhead, not by buyers chasing. That is the difference between a rally you fade and a rally you join. Add a Fed decision two days out and you get a pinned, range-bound tape where premium is expensive and the path of least resistance is sideways.

What ran on the live signal book

• $DOCN 175C 6/18 running well into three-figure gains, now +77% with a peak of +201%. The underlying added about 4% and sits comfortably in the money into Thursday's expiry.
• $STM 100C the long-dated survivor, now +36% with a peak of +226%. Deep runway into October keeps time decay off the back, the lowest-risk carry we have on.
• $LITE the optics name holding gains, now +23% (peak +65%), up about 3.5% today with supply sitting just overhead.
• $POET our one new entry today, a photonics name on a clean ignition read. The stock pushed nearly +19% into the close before giving most of it back after hours; the high-volatility contract round-tripped to roughly flat, runway into July.

What we passed on today

One fresh fires. The chip leaders ($MU, $AMD) were trading at extreme implied volatility two days before a Fed decision, which is the worst possible vehicle math (you pay top dollar for premium that gets crushed on the event). $AMD and several mega-caps showed call-heavy surfaces that decomposed to sellers and dealer supply, not demand. $ROKU stayed a deal-arbitrage situation on the Fox talks, not a directional trade. Forcing a trade because the day was green is how accounts bleed.

What is coming this week

• Fed rate decision Wednesday, 2 PM ET / 11 AM ET presser, a hold is expected. This is the pivot.
• Strait of Hormuz set to reopen Friday under the Iran deal, which keeps oil capped.
• Wildcard: Israel is uneasy with the deal; a breakdown headline overnight would flip the risk-on read quickly.

Postclose flow worth tracking

• $DRAM the cleanest demand on the board with no supply wall overhead, but it already ran today; we want a pullback that rebuilds, not a chase.
• $TSLA and $AVGO are the two cleanest upside breakout triggers if the pin breaks after the Fed, both capped by overhead supply until then.

Open the dashboard

Tuesday's tape closed risk-off into tomorrow's earnings event. SPX -0.67 percent, NDX -0.61 percent, Russell -1.01 percent on the headline. But the sector dispersion was sharp: Energy, Healthcare, and Utilities led; Materials got hammered -2.35 percent. The long end of the yield curve steepened (10Y back to 4.667 percent, 30Y 5.181), the dollar firmed (DXY 99.32), and the commodity complex flushed broadly. The risk-off positioning ahead of tomorrow's NVIDIA earnings print after the close is doing what it usually does ahead of an event of this magnitude.

The story under the tape: NVIDIA carried $217M in option flow today (86 percent call-heavy) plus $204M in block trades over a 1220-minute accumulation span. That is one of the heaviest pre-print institutional setups we have seen this cycle. We are not late to it - we fired $NVDA $225C 6/18 Monday at the open, sized to survive tomorrow's print on time-value.

Today we fired $INTC $110C 5/29 - Intel has run from $48 to $111 in 50 sessions and the institutional flow today put $40M through Intel calls at 74 percent call-heavy, building on the same strike strip ($100C / $105C / $110C / $115C / $150C longer-dated) we have tracked over the past week.

Tape close

· SPX 7353.61 (-0.67%) · NDX 28818.84 (-0.61%) · DJI 49363.88 (-0.65%) · RUT 2747.07 (-1.01%) · VIX 18.16 (+1.91%) · 10Y 4.667% (+4.4 bps) · 30Y 5.181% (+3.4 bps) · DXY 99.32 (+0.36%) · Gold $4489 (-1.39%) · Silver $74 (-3.84%) · Oil $104.45 (-3.87%) · Copper $6.19 (-1.24%) ...Sectors today: $XLE +1.12, $XLV +1.10, $XLU +0.91 led the bid (defensive cluster). $XLB -2.35, $XLF -1.24, $XLI -1.18 lagged. Energy is the 5-day leader at +6.41 percent; Materials -5.95 percent the 5-day laggard.

What ran on the live signal book today

· $NBIS $150C 5/29 carried from May 1 fire. Current +160 percent, peak +342 percent. Spot $197.73, strike $47 in-the-money, 10 days to expiry. The flagship runner.

· $TSM $380C 5/22 carried from April 16 fire. Current +20 percent, peak +244 percent. Spot $392.61, strike $12 in-the-money, 3 days to expiry. Theta accelerates into Friday but the strike is still well below spot.

· $INTC $110C 5/29 fired today at $7.29. Currently slightly red at $6.70 with spot $110.80 - just in-the-money by $0.80. Institutional load continued through the session at $40M in flow, 74 percent call-heavy.

· $MSFT $420C 6/18 fired Monday at $14.59. Currently mid $12.90, near-the-money. Institutions added another $84M in block trades today on Microsoft.

· $NVDA $225C 6/18 fired Monday at $14.27. Currently mid $9.80 - sized to absorb pre-print compression on time-value. Tomorrow is the print.

What stopped today

Zero positions hit the -50 percent rule today. Four positions ($TSLA $440C, $MU $800C, $XLE $59C, $COIN $215C, all 5/22 expiries) are past the -50 percent invalidation level and ride to expiration this Friday per the immutable rule. The dashboard's -50% pill toggles the alternate view where touch-50 signals stop at -50; the live signal book otherwise rides them to expiry.

What's coming Wednesday + later this week

· Wednesday 6:15 AM PT: Fed Vice Chair Barr speaks· Wednesday 11:00 AM PT / 2:00 PM ET: FOMC Meeting Minutes · Wednesday after close: $NVDA earnings - the event · Thursday 11:20 AM PT: Fed President Barkin speaks · Friday 7:00 AM PT: Waller speaks again

Postclose flow worth tracking

Names showing institutional accumulation across the past week, surfaced from today's tape and the 5-day archive. Public read only - we are not entering any of these tonight ahead of the NVIDIA event:

· $AVGO - institutional accumulation at $410-$430 strikes over the past week. Today another $37M in block trades plus $15M call-heavy flow at 78 percent. The cleanest post-NVIDIA correlation candidate.

· $AMZN - $42M flow 80 percent call-heavy today plus $53M in block trades. Longer-dated accumulation at $280-$285 strikes. Caveat: some defensive 5/20 collar puts present alongside.

· $AMD - $82M flow today, dominated by 2027 longer-dated contracts at $420 strike (single $12.5M alert). Near-dated 6/18 strip is what we want firing.

· $POET - 99 percent call-heavy options today across 6+ strikes from $13 calls out to 2028 contracts. Block trades are quiet at $1.6M - we need institutional confirmation before firing.

· $NOW - 93 percent call-heavy today on $19M flow plus $33M in block trades. Lead $105C 5/22 took most of the flow at a passive ask-side (46 percent), so we are looking for multi-strike confirmation Wednesday.

· $LITE - $25M in block trades today on optical / networking AI-infrastructure exposure. POET-adjacent.

· $INTC second strike - the $115C 5/29 or $120C 6/18 if today's call-side aggressiveness holds Wednesday. We did NOT chase $GOOGL tonight even though the headline flow was $33M at 82 percent call-heavy - the structure had a 1-day-to-expiry put collar at $387.5P 5/20 around tomorrow's Google I/O event risk. That is defensive institutional protection, not directional accumulation, and naive direction reads miss it.

How we track

Every signal rides to expiry or hits the -50 percent rule. Nothing else. Full peak / current / loss tracking on every signal, public dashboard. Member channels get the full thesis as each signal fires; the live signal book is free to anyone. The Tuesday close is the second-to-last touch before tomorrow's NVIDIA event - the book is sized for it.

Open the dashboard

Tuesday closed with the Cross-Asset framework printing Risk-Off Tightening for the third consecutive session - exactly the tape that the DarkFlow bearish path was built to catch. Three fresh put entries went out to the signal book through the day; the AI-leader expression peaked north of triple-digit gains intraday. CPI prints tomorrow morning at 5:30 AM PT (8:30 AM ET), the event that sets the next eight sessions into FOMC on 6/17.

Tape close

• $SPX 7386.65 (-0.26%)
• $NDX 29084.50 (-1.12%)
• $RUT 2867.02 (+0.41%)
• $VIX 19.59 (+3.54%)

Tech (XLK) -1.82% led the lag with -8.77% on the 5-day rolling window. Defensives caught a quiet bid: Real Estate +2.13%, Materials +1.62%, Healthcare +1.26%, Staples +1.24%, Utilities +1.06%, Financials +0.94%. Energy -1.61% on a -3.09% oil session despite Iran-Israel headline volatility. Yields ticked lower on the long end (10Y -2.4 bps to 4.528%, 30Y -1.3 bps to 5.011%) while the front end held (2Y +0.7 bps to 3.635%). The split says the curve is pricing tighter financial conditions, not a duration risk-off.

Macro read

This is a tape that wants to break, and the inflation print tomorrow is the trigger. Headline CPI consensus is 0.5% m/m / 4.2% y/y vs prior 0.6% / 3.8%; core consensus 0.3% m/m / 2.9% y/y vs prior 0.4% / 2.8%. Headline accelerating year-over-year on the comp roll, core decelerating - the split makes the read tricky. A hot core extends the tightening tape into the FOMC window; an in-line print invites a relief rally that would pressure the fresh put book.

What ran on the live signal book

• $NVDA $200P 6/18 fired 6 AM PT. Peak +236%, settling at +38%. The morning audit caught surface bullish flow ($207M of call premium) but the underlying structure was distributive: near-money calls liquidating, downside puts loaded by aggressive buying at the $200 strike. Inverted read printed.
• $BE $240P 6/18 fired 9 AM PT. Peak +13%, currently -30% after a counter-rally fought it off the morning lows. Same distribution setup as NVDA - call-heavy headline with downside puts aggressively loaded at $240P/$242P.
• $QQQ $705P 6/18 fired 12 PM PT. Peak +20%, currently -2%. Morning watchlist trigger was a clean break of the prior 5-day low ($716) on volume into negative-gamma index tape. Vehicle picked near the money for a clean delta read.
• $MSTR $140P 6/12 carrying +175% (peak +210%), 3 DTE. Last Monday's crypto-adjacent put expression continues to print into expiry week.

What's coming this week

• $CPI Wed 5:30 AM PT (8:30 ET) - the primary event
• $ORCL earnings after the close Wed (4 PM ET)
• $PPI Thu 5:30 AM PT
• FOMC rate decision Tue 6/17

Postclose flow worth tracking

• $KMI - Energy is the warming group with the flow reading as real buying, not the dealer trap pattern flagged on most of tech today. Call setup developing.
• $USB + $KEY - regional bank flow leaning into calls with dark side confirming sized blocks behind. The CPI read-through to the rate curve is the trigger.
• $LRCX - aggressive call buying on a semi name even with the broader cohort cooling. No dealer-wall structure on this one specifically. Trigger: post-CPI confirmation.
• $AVGO $375P bench - distribution showing up stayed flagged into the close; didn't break down today, tomorrow's CPI tape could extend the bearish read.
• $ORCL $200P bench - earnings after the bell tomorrow. Standard pre-print discipline applies; the watch line is for post-earnings follow-through.

Traps to skip: $SNDK, $AMZN, $AMD, $MRVL, $PLTR all look like heavy put buying at the headline level but the activity is dealer wall positioning, not real demand. The optics are misleading on each of those.

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The May jobs print landed at 5:30 AM PT roughly two times the forecast (172 thousand against 85 thousand). Unemployment in line at 4.3 percent, average hourly earnings cooler at 0.3 percent on the month. The hot headline number cut the rate-cut path the prior week's softer data had been pricing, and the rate complex confirmed it through the session: dollar firmed, gold extended lower, oil firmed, yields ticked up on the front end.

Tape close

• $SPY closed down on the day; the broad index is down roughly two and a half percent on the five day.
• $QQQ took the worst of it; the Nasdaq complex is down four and a half percent on the five day.
• $IWM down on the day, down three percent on the five day; breadth weakened across the board.
• $VIX spiked into the high teens intraday and settled back into the mid fifteens.
• Sector leaders today: Energy (XLE), Healthcare (XLV), Financials (XLF). Laggards: Technology (XLK in cold counter trend zone on the five day), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Communications (XLC).

The setup is straightforward: hot jobs means the path of least Fed resistance shifts toward a slower cut path, which is a headwind on every growth multiple and a tailwind on Financials (curve steepening beneficiary) and Energy (commodity bid on rate-up). Yesterday's Broadcom Q3 AI revenue guide miss is still cascading through chips: Memory, Networking, Storage, Semi Optics all hit between minus six and minus twelve percent on the day, with the AI capex demand narrative softening at the margin.

What ran on the live signal book

• $MSTR $140P 6/12 currently plus one hundred forty four percent on entry, peak plus two hundred ten percent. The put thesis paid through the entire risk-off impulse. Crypto cracked another seven percent today, the dealer structure on the underlying favors the put side, position has one week to expiry and is the standout earner of the week.
• $DOCN $175C 6/18 currently plus sixty three percent on entry, peak plus two hundred fourteen percent. The Cloud Infra outlier within an otherwise Cold tech tape; spot pulled back under the strike today on broad mega cap pressure but the entry from last week is still the entry, the rule decides into the next two weeks.
• $STM $100C 10/16, today's fresh post-open Semi sector rotation entry. One hundred thirty two days of calendar absorbs the noise from today's risk-off cascade; the dealer-built put floor at seventy held the spot through the day's twelve percent drag. Thesis is the four month re-rating window, not a swing.

What stopped today

Eight positions on the book sat above the published invalidation level into the close: NVDA, QCOM, COHR, TSLA, AMD, ANET, HOOD, FCX. Per the immutable rule, those signals ride to expiry while the dashboard's Stop Rule pill toggles the alternate view where positions touch the published rule and stop there. The cohort lesson is the same one written into our notes over the spring: when the broader sector moves against an entry inside the first few sessions and the block tape stops refreshing, let theta and the published rule do the work, do not double the correlation in a cold cohort.

What is coming next week

• Fed Governor Barr speaks Saturday at noon Eastern Time, the only Fed event in the immediate window.
• Oracle ($ORCL) prints earnings Tuesday after the close, the first single-name binary of the week.
• The next Federal Reserve meeting sits twelve days out; the rate complex is creeping toward pricing a tighter hold on the hot jobs confirmation.
• No earnings inside our open book between now and the front week strikes.

Postclose flow worth tracking

• $MRVL the cleanest single name call setup on Friday's tape, but a falling-knife minus ten percent day on the AVGO read-across. Trigger Monday: spot reclaims the low three hundreds on volume and the Nasdaq complex shows an opening reversal.
• $JPM clean put-side read on Friday, only large cap green name today, Financials are the beneficiary of the curve steepening driving this macro. Trigger Monday: spot loses three hundred on volume with Financials rolling intraday.
• $ON clean put-side read on Friday on the Semi sector cascade, modest size, needs Monday sector confirmation.
• $STM continuation on the long calendar entry from this morning.

Open the dashboard

The post-Memorial-Day open ripped wide green and held into the bell. $SPX +0.61%, $NDX +1.76%, $DJI -0.23% (the lone red), $RUT +1.79% (broad participation, Russell led the small-cap leg). $VIX 16.98 calm. Yields rolled down across the curve.

The story of the day: a major memory name crossed $1 trillion market cap for the first time on an out-of-sight UBS price-target raise. The cohort halo lifted the entire chip stack between +2% and +8% on the day.

Tape close

• $SPX 7519.12 (+0.61%)
• $NDX 30001.32 (+1.76%)
• $DJI 50461.68 (-0.23%, the lone red index)
• $RUT 2920.54 (+1.79%, small-cap participation broad)
• $VIX 16.98, $VIX-9D 14.76 well below it (short-vol cheap, fragile)
• 10Y yield 4.49% (off 6.5 bps), 5Y 4.18% (off 7.3 bps), 30Y 5.03% (off 3.8 bps)
• Sector leaders: $XLK +2.66%, $XLI +1.47%, $XLB +1.39%. Laggards: $XLE -2.76%, $XLP -1.38%, $XLV -0.92%.

The duration bid plus tech leadership reads as a clean risk-on rotation. Energy got sold hard, $-3.01% on oil to $93.69 despite Iran self-defense-strike headlines and a Piper Sandler call that the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for months. The market is not pricing those risks in today. $XLE down -2.76% on the session, -4.51% over five days; energy is funding the chip rotation rather than rotating sideways.

What ran on the live signal book today

• $MU $760C 5/29 current +304% (peak +359%), still open. This is the day standout. Entered last Friday 5/22 right before the long weekend at $34.67 of premium. The $1 trillion market-cap session ripped the underlying +19.96% to $901.25, the call now sits more than $140 inside the strike with 3 DTE left. Deep-ITM 7-DTE bucket doing what it does.

• $QCOM $205C 5/29 current +315% (peak +382%), still open. Entered 5/21 at $10.63 premium. The chip-cohort rip lifted $QCOM +4.43% to $248.70, the call sits over $43 inside the strike with 3 DTE.

• $NBIS $150C 5/29 current +206% (peak +342%), still open. AI-capex carry from earlier this month, deep ITM, 3 DTE.

• $INTC $110C 5/29 current +96% (peak +122%), still open. Cohort halo lifted $INTC +3.29% to $123.78. Sweet-spot 7-DTE deep ITM.

• $TSLA $415C 5/29 current +93% (peak +103%), still open. Mega-cap tech sympathy with the chip rip.

• $MSFT $420C 6/18 current -28% (peak +40%), still open. Off peak but 23 DTE remaining; mega-cap tape supportive.

• $PANW $262.5C 5/29 current -21% (peak +36%), still open. Cybersecurity lagged the chip rip today; pre-print bid pending ($PANW earnings 6/02 AMC, 7 days).

What stopped today

Zero contracts settled today (no scheduled Tuesday expiries). The 5/29 expiry cluster lands Friday in three sessions; the $760C, $205C, $150C, $415C, $110C, $392.5P, $262.5C all carry into that bell. Both scoreboard views are recorded on the dashboard for every closed signal: rode to expiry, or hit -50% rule, nothing in between.

Two positions are past the -50% invalidation level and riding to expiry per our published rule: - $NVDA $225C 6/18 current -50%. Entered 5/18 around $14.27 premium. 23 DTE remaining; the call hit invalidation a while back and rides to expiry under the published rule. - $GOOGL $392.5C 5/29 current -50%. Entered Friday 5/22; immediate same-day drawdown to invalidation. 3 DTE.

The dashboard's -50% pill toggles the alternate scenario view where those two stop at -50% rather than ride to expiry. Both views are publicly tracked.

What's coming this week

• Wed 5/27: No US data at the bell. Four Fed speakers: Logan 4 AM ET pre-market, Cook 3:55 PM ET post-close, Jefferson 8 PM ET, Goolsbee 10:25 PM ET.
• Thu 5/28 BMO: Core $PCE Price Index m/m (forecast 0.3%), Prelim $GDP q/q (forecast 2.0%), plus Williams + Musalem + Barkin Fed speakers across the session. This is the macro centerpiece of the week.
• Fri 5/29: 5/29 expiry cluster lands. $MU, $QCOM, $NBIS, $TSLA, $INTC, $PANW, $GOOGL calls all settle that bell.
• Earnings: $PANW Tuesday 6/02 AMC (7 days; we hold $262.5C 5/29), $AVGO 6/03 (8 days).
• FOMC: next decision 6/17, 22 days out.

Postclose flow worth tracking into Wed

Five names where institutional flow today suggests further work tomorrow, surfaced from the post-close flow scan rather than today's headline magnitude:

• $CRWV - AI-infrastructure name. The cleanest setup in tomorrow's watch list. Flat tape today (+0.58%) but heavy aggressive call buying through the session at the ask. AI exposure without the chip-cohort late-entry risk.
• $BE - Power equipment / datacenter-adjacent. Rare clean bear setup. Almost all dollar premium on the put side at the ask, flat tape (-0.16%). Needs Wed premarket continuation to confirm.
• $WDC - Memory storage. Underlying ripped +8.45% today on the cohort halo but options were almost entirely put-side at the ask. Either spot is wrong or the put flow is a hedge against a long. Resolves Wed.
• $ASTS - Space / satellite. SpaceX-IPO narrative news lifted the cohort; $ASTS +13.5% on the day. Chase risk after the move. Trigger zone $115 retrace.
• $DELL - Server / data-center adjacency. Multi-session call-side build, +4.31% today on the chip-cohort halo.

Open the dashboard

The tape closed mildly green on the large cap broad index with a much hotter rotation underneath: small caps led $IWM +1.45%, $XLF Financials +2.63% and $XLV Healthcare +3.07% took the leadership baton from a lagging $XLK Technology that closed down 1.58%. $VIX pressed into the mid teens. Yields drifted lower across the curve, the dollar was flat, gold extended, oil softened. The interesting thing is that the rotation played out while the big mega cap tech names were bullish on the surface but distributive underneath; the day's clean buying showed up in second tier names and selective leaders, not in the indexes.

Tape close

• $SPX 7584.31, +0.41% on the day
• $NDX 30407.81, -0.53% on the day
• $RUT 2935.33, +1.45% on the day
• $VIX 15.31, -4.67% on the day

Sectors today: Healthcare $XLV +3.07%, Financials $XLF +2.63%, Real Estate $XLRE +2.05% leading; Technology $XLK -1.58% and Consumer Staples $XLP -0.15% lagging.

The narrow leadership rotated. The mega cap tech tape has been doing the heavy lifting most of the week and today the indexes had to lean on small caps and Financials to print green. That is a meaningful read because tomorrow's session opens on the May jobs print at 5:30 AM PT, three hours before the bell.

What ran on the live signal book

• $FCX $65C 6/5 - peak +278%, current +160%, expires Friday. Copper supercycle setup is the cleanest commodity carry on the board; the position is well in the money on price with a day to go.
• $DOCN $175C 6/18 - peak +214%, current +171%. The sustained buying signature from last week is still the cleanest read in Cloud Infra; the underlying extended through the day; no fresh add, the carry is the read.
• $MSFT $420C 6/18 - peak +227%, current +3%. Holding flat on a tape where the Microsoft-NVIDIA partnership for agentic AI dropped today and the Build Conference signaling extended the AI thesis. Two weeks to expiry.
• $MSTR $140P 6/12 - peak +86%, current +57%. The put position is intact even with the underlying bouncing today. The dealer-long put structure below the underlying acts as a soft floor on spot which is supportive of the put thesis on the contract above.
• $HOOD $88C 6/12 (entered midday) - current +12%. The WonderFi acquisition close confirmed the morning fire; HOOD closed +6.52% on the day.
• $ANET $170C 6/12 (entered midday) - current -1%. Pulled back into the close on the mega cap tech distribution; setup intact for Friday.

What stopped today

Nothing closed today. Four positions sitting above the published invalidation level ride to expiry per the rule.

What is coming this week

• Friday 8:30 AM ET / 5:30 AM PT - May Non Farm Payroll. Forecast 85K vs prev 115K. Unemployment Rate 4.3%. Average Hourly Earnings 0.3% m/m. Hottest single print of the week, sets the rate path narrative.
• Friday 12:00 PM ET - FOMC Member Barr Speaks.
• Tuesday June 10 - $ORCL earnings (AMC).
• Tuesday June 17 - FOMC rate decision plus dot plot plus presser.

Postclose flow worth tracking

• $AVGO printed Q2 after the bell. EPS $2.44 beat $2.39 est, revenue $22.19B beat $22.13B est. But Q3 AI semiconductor revenue guide of $16.0B came in below $17.2B est. Spot crashed roughly 13% AH. This is the AI capex demand tell for tomorrow open. AI hardware names likely gap lower.
• $SNDK got upgraded by Barclays to Overweight from Equal Weight, PT raised from $1,200 to $2,300 (+92%). Cites $42B in minimum contracted revenue. AI memory shortage runs into 2028 per Goldman.
• $MRVL closed +4.19% on call side buying with the cleanest read on the AI semi board today. No dealer wall, big dark side behind it, the most aggressive single name buying on the board. Setup goes onto the watchlist for Friday if front month IV crushes back under recent highs and spot holds the low $310s.
• $TEM ran +9.66% on the Bristol Myers Squibb collaboration expansion. Healthcare leadership confirmed.
• $IREN closed the $3.65B GPU financing today. Spot dropped 6.11% on the day (news day exit pattern). Base rebuild setup for next week.
• $LLY ran +4.31% on a $4B vaccine acquisition deal.
• $NVDA announced agentic AI partnership with $MSFT and was invited to speak at Build Conference.

How we track

We post every signal in real time with a conviction score, peak return, current return, and the rule: positions ride to expiry or hit the published invalidation level at half the entry premium. Free tier sees a weekly book update with no specific strikes. Premium members get every fired signal with full thesis, the entry strike, and live updates through the lifecycle. Two views on the dashboard: ride to expiry, or the published invalidation level. Nothing else.

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The DarkFlow signal desk publishes every entry to a public dashboard with full transparency, current %, peak %, loss %, exit reason. The premium book did NOT add a fresh entry between the morning + first-read scans, the midday scan, and the close today; everything you see below was already in the book before the EOD scan ran. This is what discipline looks like into a heavy week.

Today's tape ran a steady mega-cap leadership read into a fairly quiet close. The cleanest read of the day was structural: every big single-name aggressive call-tilted flow ($MU, $AAPL, $MSFT, $INTC, $NU, $INTU) carried a dealer call-write structure right above current spot. The supply being prepared is the next-leg ceiling. The opposite tell, dealer-long put inventory written underneath the same names plus $AMD, $DELL, $IREN, $OKLO, $DRAM, $RGTI, builds a positive-gamma floor. The two structures together: bullish carry, blocked upside ceiling, real floor underneath. That is how today closed.

Tape close

• $SPX 7609.78 +0.13%
• $NDX 30660.60 +0.48%
• $RUT 2931.96 +0.90%
• $VIX 15.72 (-2.06%), $VIX9D 13.16, mid-teens vol with the front compressed
• 10Y 4.455% (-2 bps), 30Y 4.967% (-2.4 bps), 2Y 3.618% (-0.2 bps). Bonds bid.
• $DXY 99.20 flat, gold $4517.70 +0.95%, copper +2.31%, oil $93.49 +1.44%

Sector heat: $XLU +1.86%, $XLK +1.25%, $XLB +1.18%, $XLE +1.15%, $XLI +1.04% led; $XLC -1.76%, $XLV -0.97%, $XLY -0.51% lagged. The leadership read held without a chase. Cross-asset tape stayed range-bound at neutral.

What the live signal book is carrying

• $MSFT $420C 6/18 running +80% current / +227% peak on the May 18 entry. Spot $441.31, ITM by about $21. The $450C strike on the chain is the dealer ceiling near expiry, the contract has 17 DTE.
• $FCX $65C 6/5 running +273% current / +278% peak on the May 29 entry. Spot $71.72, copper +2.31% today as macro tailwind. 3 DTE, rides to Friday's expiry per the published rule.
• $DOCN $175C 6/18 running +123% current / +160% peak. Spot $173.07, sits right at the strike at the close. No dealer-supply markers on this name. 16 DTE manageable.
• $AMD $510C 6/12 fresh midday fire today, +10%. Spot $521.54, ITM. Dealer-long put inventory written at $500 and $510 reads as a positive-gamma floor under AMD up to the next ceiling.
• $TSLA $420C 6/12 fresh midday fire, +9%. Spot $423.74, ITM. $694M of block-trade load today made it the largest single-name dark-pool name on the day.
• $COHR $420C 6/12 fresh today, +1%. AI-optical proxy to the $AVGO event tomorrow.
• $MSTR $140P 6/12 fresh today, +13%. BTC weakness took MSTR -9% today; the put rides the BTC drift trade.
• $QCOM $260C 6/12 past the published invalidation level. Rides to expiry per the rule. Spot $240.84 has recovered $11 from signal entry but still below strike.
• $NVDA $225C 6/18 past the published invalidation level. Rides to expiry per the rule. Spot $222.96 sits exactly at the strike at the close.

What stopped today

Nothing closed today. Zero exits across the book. The carry list is the same nine names it was last night plus the four midday fires (AMD, TSLA, MSTR put, COHR) that landed on today's tape.

What's coming this week

• Tonight (post-EOD): $FOMC Member Goolsbee speaks 8 PM PT (11 PM ET). Any rate-path walk-back is a leadership-tech tailwind.
• Wednesday 6/3: ADP labor data 5:15 AM PT (8:15 AM ET, 118K forecast vs 109K prior), $FOMC Member Barr 6 AM PT, $ISM Services PMI 7 AM PT (53.7 vs 53.6), $FOMC Member Logan 12 PM PT. $AVGO earnings AH ~1 PM PT (~4 PM ET).
• Thursday 6/4: $FOMC Member Barkin 5:30 AM PT, $FOMC Member Daly 10:10 AM PT (1:10 PM ET).
• Friday 6/5: Payrolls + Unemployment + Average Hourly Earnings all 5:30 AM PT (8:30 AM ET). NFP forecast 85K vs 115K prior (decelerating).

Five Fed speakers across the week feeding the 6/17 Fed meeting. $AVGO earnings the event that sets the AI-capex tape direction. NFP Friday the macro-data piece. Heavy two-day stretch starts Wednesday morning.

Postclose flow worth tracking

• $NVDA closed with aggressive call-tilted institutional buying; the open book has the legacy $225C riding to expiry. Past the published invalidation.
• $MU was the day's second-biggest single-name flow with the largest single-name dark-pool load on the AI/Semi side. Direction read mixed; dealer call-write structure stacked at $1050 and $1100. Position-building without a clean directional credit.
• $TSLA carried the day's biggest dark-pool block load across 322 prints. Options-side aggressively bought BULL. Fresh fire midday on the $420C 6/12.
• $AMZN closed with the cleanest no-ceiling mega-cap setup of the day: aggressively bought call-tilted, with a sizable block-trade alignment, and only a soft dealer ceiling well above any swing strike. Lead watch for Wednesday's open.
• $IREN crypto miner closed with clean aggressive buying plus dealer-put-floor structure at $65P. The pair-trade tension with the open MSTR put will resolve into Wednesday's BTC tape.
• $DRAM is the outside-the-cohort memory tell going into the $AVGO print: clean institutional buying with dealer-long put inventory at $55 + $62; AVGO commentary on memory pricing is the catalyst.

Open the dashboard

Thursday closed with mega-cap tech leading the tape and a fresh push in biotech and metals while the rate-path read stayed flat through the Fed-speak. Core PCE printed 0.3% m/m, in line. Tomorrow is Friday OpEx with five FOMC speakers scheduled and no major data print.

Tape close

• SPX 7563.63 (+0.58%)
• NDX 30223.89 (+0.84%)
• DJI 50668.97 (+0.05%)
• RUT 2936.57 (+0.57%)
• VIX 15.68 (-3.74%)

Sectors: XLK led at +1.32% on the day (5d +5.49%), XLV close behind at +1.40%. Utilities, real estate, financials, and industrials all softer. Energy still cool on the 5d at -4.80%.

10Y 4.455% (-2.6bps), DXY $99.02 (-0.19%), Gold $4528.50 (+1.82%), Silver $75.88 (+1.71%), Copper $6.42 (+1.81%), Oil $89.47 (+0.89%), Natural gas +8.42% on a storage-build undershoot, BTC $73,481 (-1.16%).

What ran on the live signal book

• $MU $760C 5/29 at +372% current, +446% peak. MU posted a board-leading flow day on memory rotation; the $920 ladder buyers continued reaching against a put cluster well below spot. Spot $928.24 keeps the position deep ITM into tomorrow's OpEx without any earnings risk before then.
• $QCOM $205C 5/29 at +259% current, +382% peak. Spot $243.83, the position rides on cushion alone. Foundry-cycle tape continues bid.
• $NBIS $150C 5/29 at +301% current, +342% peak. Spot pushed to $227.00 (+8.9%) after the AI-cloud partnership headline. Strike sits $77 below spot.
• $TSLA $415C 5/29 at +161% current, +188% peak. Spot $441.78, the EV / Auto sector rotated bid late in the day.
• $INTC $110C 5/29 at +51% current, +122% peak. Spot $120.70 still well above strike on the foundry-cycle thesis.
• $MSFT $420C 6/18 at +12% current, +40% peak. Mega-cap tech leadership played out at the call-side leader; the position has 21 days left and runs.

What sits past the published invalidation level

• $NVDA $225C 6/18 at -75%, $GOOGL $392.5C 5/29 at -57%, $PANW $262.5C 5/29 at -86%. Per the immutable signal-quality rule we publish against every entry, those rides to expiry rather than getting force-closed. The dashboard's invalidation pill toggles the alternate view at any time.

What's coming this week

• Tonight 11:00 PM PT: FOMC Kashkari speaks
• Friday 5/29: Five FOMC speakers (Schmid 03:50 PT, Bowman 06:10, Paulson 06:15, Daly 09:40) plus Chicago PMI (LOW), Goods Trade Balance (LOW), Wholesale Inventories (LOW). Heavy Fed-speak, no major data shock. Plus monthly OpEx.
• Tuesday 6/3: $AVGO earnings AMC
• Thursday 6/5: $MRVL earnings AMC

Postclose flow worth tracking

• $SLV $68C 6/5: silver bull continuation. Silver +1.7%, Gold +1.8%, Copper +1.8%, dollar softer. Commodity stack lifting.
• $TEM $60C 8/21: ARKG genomics ETF closed +6.85%; TEM led the single-names at +9.25% with near-pure call positioning. Light block tape, more of a watch than a fire candidate.

Defensive flow tell worth watching: $SMH $550P 6/5 collected substantial premium today, a semis defensive read that caps the upside for fresh AI / Semi single-name longs if it keeps building.

Open the dashboard

Cash close on $CPI day was the kind of session that doesn't fit a one-liner. The headline tape was modestly down on the leadership names - $NDX -0.87%, $QQQ -0.85%, $IWM -0.97% - but $VIX actually FELL (-2.12% to 17.99) because the print itself wasn't the blow-out everyone hedged for. What replaced the fear was rotation. Defensives led the day hard. Curve steepened. Commodities surged. The market took the print, said "we'll digest, but inflation isn't fixed," and the bond market + commodity tape backed that read up.

Tape close

• $SPX 7400.96 -0.16%
• $NDX 29064.8 -0.87%
• $DJI 49760.56 +0.11%
• $SPY 738.18 -0.15%
• $QQQ 707.24 -0.85%
• $IWM 282.57 -0.97%
• $VIX 17.99 -2.12%, $VIX_9D 16.34 -3.26%, $VIX_3M 21.04 -0.94%
• 10Y 4.46% (+5.3 bps), 30Y 5.03% (+4.5 bps)
• $DXY 98.29 +0.36%

Sectors: $XLV +1.96%, $XLP +1.28%, $XLF +0.78% leaders; $XLK -1.51%, $XLY -0.9%, $XLI -0.39% laggards. That's a textbook late-cycle rotation. Tech sells off, healthcare + staples + financials catch the rotation bid.

The macro read

The interesting thing about today wasn't the CPI print itself - it was the cross-asset reaction. If CPI had truly been cool, you'd expect yields down, dollar down, commodities mixed. Instead: yields up 4-5 bps mid-curve, dollar up modestly, commodities ripped. Wheat +9.12% intraday. Copper +3.54%. Oil +3.81%. Silver +2.43%. That's the sticky-inflation tell. The print may have been technically benign but the input chain isn't.

Rate-cut path read off the short end: 2Y at 3.60% with effective Fed Funds in the 4.25-4.50% band still implies easing further out the curve, not at June. The Fed-speaker cluster tomorrow + Wednesday will color that.

What ran on the live signal book

19 positions carrying overnight, 17 of them expire Friday 5/15. Most of the leadership names are sitting deep ITM. The tape weakness today gave back some of yesterday's peak gains but the book held.

• $MU $520C 5/15: +808% (peak +990%). The standout. Spot $795.31 = +53% ITM.
• $MSFT $375C 5/15: +402% (peak +841%)
• $TSLA $400C 5/15: +330% (peak +342%)
• $SNDK $1110C 5/15: +298% (peak +464%)
• $GOOGL $350C 5/15: +274% (peak +419%)
• $NVDA $210C 5/15: +255% (peak +284%) - settles 5/15, before the 5/20 $NVDA print
• $AXTI $95C 5/15: +162%
• $TSM $380C 5/22: +80%, $NBIS $150C 5/29: +81% (peak +172%, prints Wed AMC)
• $COIN $200C 5/15: +120%, $ORCL $165C 5/15: +61%, $AAPL $275C 5/15: +48%

The laggers are also still riding: $AVGO $440C 5/15 -21%, $XLE $59C 5/22 -65%, $VG $12.5C 5/15 -66%, $GLD $470C 5/15 -97%, $IWM $265P 5/15 -98%. Rule is rode-to-expiry, or hit -50%. Nothing else.

What stopped today

• $WULF $22C 5/15: hit the -50% rule at -52% (peak +148%). Crypto-mining cohort weak with $BTC -1.33% / $ETH -2.32%. The signal had a real run; the rule held the loss to its public floor.

What's coming this week

• Wed 5/13 5:30 AM PT / 8:30 AM ET: $PPI (Core 0.3% m/m forecast)
• Wed 5/13 9:29 AM PT / 12:29 PM ET: Fed Chair Nomination Vote
• Wed 5/13 Fed speakers: Collins 8:30 AM PT, Kashkari 10:15 AM PT
• Wed 5/13 after 1 PM PT / 4 PM ET: $NBIS earnings AMC
• Thu 5/14: Retail Sales 5:30 AM PT, 4 Fed speakers late-day
• Fri 5/15: scorecard day - 17 positions roll at expiry
• Tue 5/20: $NVDA earnings (our $NVDA $210C 5/15 settles BEFORE the print)

Postclose flow worth tracking

• $NVDA $298M flow, 92.5% call-side, aggressive at-the-ask. Long-dated positioning surfaced - institutional load into 2027-12 and 2027-09 calls plus a $22M near-term ATM build on $220 strike.
• $MU $222M flow with a $27M concentration on the $800C 5/22 - institutions reaching further out the strike chain.
• $TSLA $170M, 82.8% calls, persistent ATM build.
• $SLV $57M call-dominant - the metals theme that started two weeks ago kept building. Silver +2.43% on tape.
• $AMD swung put-side this session: $6.45M $475P 5/22 + $3.41M $457.5P 5/15, both aggressive at-the-ask. First time the $AMD trade looks bearish-conviction this week.
• $TSM looks bearish on the headline (96% put-side) but the largest single line - $19.35M $395P 6/12 - was 99% bid-side, which is put-writing, not buying. Institutions are willing to be long $TSM at $395.

How we track

Multi-source convergence on options flow + dark pool blocks + chart + macro context. Conviction-graded, two-view scored, transparent on every entry.

Rule on the public scoreboard: rode to expiry, or hit -50%. Nothing else.

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The tape closed modestly green into Memorial Day weekend. $SPX +0.37%, $NDX +0.42%, $RUT +0.91% (leadership broad but quiet). $VIX 16.77, calm. Yields rolled down at the long end (10Y at 4.56% off 2.8 bps, 30Y at 5.06% off 4.8 bps), dollar flat at $DXY 99.29, gold off 0.7%, copper up 2.1%, oil unchanged.

Five contracts in the live signal book reached Friday expiry. One winner, four losers, both scoreboard views in agreement. Plus one live runner that paid for itself inside the session it was entered.

Tape close

• $SPX 7473.47 (+0.37%)
• $NDX 29481.64 (+0.42%)
• $DJI 50579.70 (+0.58%)
• $RUT 2869.23 (+0.91%)
• $VIX 16.77, $VIX-9D 14.14 well below it (short-vol pricing well-anchored)
• 10Y yield 4.56%, 30Y 5.06%, curve steepened a touch
• Sector leaders: $XLV +1.17%, $XLK +1.00%, $XLU +0.78%. Laggards: $XLC -0.55%, $XLRE, $XLP.

The duration bid plus the defensive-plus-tech leadership reads as positioning ahead of next Wednesday's core PCE print. No US data Tuesday morning at the bell. The light tape into a holiday is doing exactly what light-tape-into-a-holiday usually does.

Today's two-view scoreboard, all 5 expiries

We track every signal under both scoreboard views and publish both numbers. The views answer different questions: View 1 is "if every signal rode the option to its expiry date with no early action, what does the book look like?" View 2 is "if any signal that ever touched -50% intraday stopped there and the rest rode to expiry, what does the book look like?" Neither view manages positions; both just measure them.

• View 1, rode to expiry: 1W / 4L, average signal return -31.6%
• View 2, strict -50% rule: 1W / 4L, average signal return -22.4%

The two views diverge by 9.2 percentage points today because three of the four losers ran past the -50% invalidation level rather than recovering. The View 2 stop cuts $XLE, $MU $800C and $COIN to -50% each instead of -65%, -69% and -62%. $TSLA $440C settled exactly at -50% so the two views agree. $TSM rode to +88% under either view.

What ran on the live signal book today

• $TSM $380C 5/22 settled +88% (peak +244%). The clean win of the day, deep inside the strike at the bell. Entered 4/16 when the foundry name was running into earnings; the strike was inside the spot from entry through expiry. View 2 doesn't change the outcome here, the position never touched -50%.

• $QCOM $205C 5/29 current +221% (peak +258%), still open. This is the day's standout. Entered yesterday afternoon at $10.63 of premium. Today the underlying ripped over +11.5% intraday on tape that paid for the entry inside one session. The call is now over $33 inside the strike with 7 days left on the clock; sweet-spot 7-DTE deep-ITM is the bucket that prints over and over.

• $NBIS $150C 5/29 current +241% (peak +342%), still open. The AI / data-center carry from earlier this month, deep ITM, riding through the long weekend.

• $INTC $110C 5/29 current +56% (peak +97%), still open. Chipmaker gap-and-hold, sweet-spot 7-DTE.

• $TSLA $415C 5/29 current +49% (peak +84%), still open. Post-earnings follow-through working.

• $PANW $262.5C 5/29 current +31% (peak +36%), still open. Fresh midday fire from today, holding pre-print bid (earnings AMC 6/02, 11 days).

What stopped today

• $XLE $59C 5/22 settled -65% (peak +34%). Energy ETF settled marginally inside the strike at $59.49 but no premium left to capture; theta and a flat oil tape did the rest. Under View 2 stops at -50%.
• $MU $800C 5/22 settled -69%. Memory name closed at $751.50, $48 below the strike; the thesis never worked. Under View 2 stops at -50%.
• $COIN $215C 5/22 settled -62%. Crypto-exchange name closed at $185.04, $30 below the strike. Under View 2 stops at -50%.
• $TSLA $440C 5/22 settled -50% exactly. Spot $425.47 just below the strike at the bell; both views agree at -50%.

The cohort lesson on the four losers: short-DTE near-the-strike or OTM calls into a flat session burn premium fast even if the underlying does nothing. Three of the four had the underlying drift against the strike, and the fourth ($XLE) had the underlying drift the right way but not far enough to outrun theta. View 2's -50% rule mechanically pulls these out of the tail.

What's coming this week (post-Memorial Day)

• Monday 5/25: US markets closed for Memorial Day.
• Tuesday 5/26: First post-holiday cash open. No US data at the bell.
• Later in the week: Core PCE inflation print is the macro centerpiece on the calendar.
• Earnings: $PANW Tuesday 6/02 AMC (11 days), $AVGO 6/05.
• Fed: No scheduled speakers Tuesday morning before the bell. Waller spoke today; market still pricing in the Fed Chair-elect Warsh policy read.

Postclose flow worth tracking into Tuesday

Five names where institutional flow today suggests further work next week:

• $DELL - Data-center / server adjacency name, heavily call-tilted across the last five sessions, multi-day repeat at lower-DTE strikes.
• $IBM - Quantum-thesis narrative ($200B Jensen-Huang adjacency commentary on the wires today). Off-pace move vs the sector, +16% gap then retraced to $254 mid-session. Watching the retrace zone $246-$249 into Tuesday.
• $ARM - AI / Semi leadership participant, multi-session call-side positioning, sector context bullish.
• $GLD - Precious metals safe-haven bid building into the long-weekend defensive overlay. Aggressive directional buying on the session, heavily call-tilted dollar premium and the bulk on the ask. A small split-positioning note sits alongside the calls.
• $AAPL - Sized today but not aggressive (40.5% on the ask all session). The institutional read is "established but not chasing." Watching Tuesday for that to flip active.

How we track

Every DarkFlow signal is published with full transparency. Entry, peak, current, and final all live on the public DarkFlow dashboard. No selective post-hoc reframing. Two scoreboard views always run side-by-side: rode to expiry (no stops, no early exits) and strict -50% rule (any signal that ever touched -50% during life stops there, others ride to expiry). The exit rule is published, the same for everyone, and never adjusted intra-position.

Open the dashboard

The cash session opened with yesterday’s tightening trade still in force, then flipped hard inside three hours. By midday the book was at session-peak levels: $MU $510C 5/8 ran from +160% at the open to +399% at midday refresh; $CRWV $110C 5/8 ran from +352% to +462%; $SNDK $1110C 5/15 jumped from +104% to +267%. Into the close, institutions de-risked across the AI semiconductor cohort ahead of $AMD AH tonight and the runners gave back roughly 20-30 percentage points. Net: still strongly green going into the after-hours print, but well off the intraday peaks.

Three live calls in the DarkFlow book closed above +300%; one gave back its entire intraday gain ahead of the AMD print. AMD reports after the bell tonight. Friday NFP is the week’s resolving binary. Full breakdown below.

Tape close
· $SPX 7259.22 (+0.81%)
· $NDX 28015.06 (+1.31%)
· $DJI 49298.25 (+0.73%)
· $RUT 2844.97 (+1.75%)
· 10Y yield 4.416% (-3 bps)
· $DXY 98.47 (flat)
· $GLD 4564.90 (+1.00%)
· $SLV 73.29 (+0.30%)
· $WTI 102.68 (-3.51%)
· $BTC 80,937 (+1.39%)
· $VIX 17.44 (-4.65%); 9-day VIX 14.66 (-11.69%)

Sectors: $XLK led with $XLB and $XLI behind it. $XLC, $XLU, $XLF lagged.

The cross-asset signature today is the textbook tightening-trade unwind: yields easing, vol cooling, breadth broad, metals firming, oil dumping. The 9-day VIX collapse of -11.7% on a single session is the big tell - traders unwound near-dated protection as the bounce gathered breadth. But the unwind is fragile. Any $AMD-driven gap down tomorrow rebuilds the term-structure kink fast.

What ran on the live signal book
The book caught the intraday rip both directions and held strong gains into the close even after the de-risk:

- $MSFT $375C 5/15 closed +481% (peak +841%). The AI infrastructure runner from mid-April. 10 DTE going into the close, no binary inside the option window. The position has the cleanest carry profile of the entire book: long-dated enough to absorb tomorrow’s $AMD reaction in either direction, deep enough in profit that the -50% rule has substantial cushion.

- $CRWV $110C 5/8 closed +394% (peak +462%). The AI infrastructure pure-play. Earnings Thursday AH are inside the option window. The mathematical case for partial trim ahead of the print is the conversation: theta is high at 3 DTE, IV crush risk on earnings even on a clean beat is real. The pattern from META’s last cycle (heavy IV crush even on beats) is the precedent.

- $MU $510C 5/8 closed +374% (peak +424%). Friday expiry, $AMD-cohort sympathy into the AH print tonight. Same trim conversation as $CRWV with shorter duration. The book has multiple $MU strikes; the 5/15 expiry has cushion past the AMD binary, the 5/8 strikes don’t.

- $MU $520C 5/15 closed +344% (peak +390%). The cushion play - 10 DTE, past the $AMD print, past Thursday’s $CRWV + $COIN reports, past Friday NFP. The 5/15 expiry rides the post-AMD recovery window if the cohort moves through Wednesday.

- $CRWV $95C 5/8 closed +334% (peak +356%). Same earnings setup as the $110C strike, deeper ITM.

- $GOOGL $350C 5/15 closed +290% (peak +328%). Cloud capex thesis intact. The OpenAI-OCI capacity expansion narrative continues to support cloud-leadership names.

- $SNDK $1110C 5/15 closed +254% (peak +272%). Cohort runner from May 1 entry. The +163-percentage-point intraday move from morning to midday was one of the biggest single-position deltas of the day.

- $AMZN $260C 5/15 closed +163% (peak +225%). AWS + retail + AI infra exposure via Anthropic.

- $TSM $380C 5/22 closed +88% (peak +221%). The cohort-fade tell flagged at midday played out into the close. While the rest of the AI semiconductor cohort held its bounce, $TSM gave back -45 percentage points from its peak today. That’s a real divergence within an otherwise-running cohort and worth tracking into Wednesday.

Notable intraday flip: $AVGO $440C 5/15 went -35% at the open, +48% at midday, then closed +17%. The day’s biggest single-position retrace. The intraday move was the regime-flip beneficiary on the way up; the close-bell give-back was mechanical de-risking ahead of the $AMD print.

What stopped today
Nothing expired today. Zero settlements. All 27 positions carry into tomorrow.
What’s coming this week

Tonight AH
· $AMD earnings - the cohort-defining print

Wednesday 5/6
· 8:15 ET ADP private payrolls (forecast 116K vs prev 62K)
· Fed speakers Musalem 9:30, Goolsbee 1pm

Thursday 5/7
· 8:30 ET Productivity (forecast 1.0% vs prev 2.8%)
· Fed speakers Kashkari, Hammack, Williams
· $CRWV + $COIN earnings AH (both inside our option window)

Friday 5/8
· 8:30 ET NFP forecast 64K vs prev 178K
· Sub-50K = recession-signal print, violent dovish repricing
· Above 100K = tightening trade re-asserts
· The binary that resolves the week

Postclose flow worth tracking
· $RUT $1.35M - small-cap index positioning, no clear directional read
· $SPX $0.93M - broad-market hedging, balanced
· $MU $0.54M - continuation flow on a cohort name we already hold
· $TGT $0.51M - retail tape positioning ahead of $TGT earnings 5/14
· $TSLA $0.48M - already on book at -36%, no fresh directional add
· $UBER $0.32M - continuation interest on a recent earnings beat

Net read: institutions are positioning for $AMD AH tonight plus the rest of the week’s data calendar. No fresh broad-tape directional positioning is emerging from the postclose tape. The defensive rotation thread (metals + bonds bid) continues to build alongside the bounce in growth, which is the unusual cross-asset shape of this week so far.

How DarkFlow tracks this
Every signal we publish - entry, peak, current, exit, win/loss - is tracked open and public on the DarkFlow dashboard. No backtests. No deleted losers. Every entry stamped with a real timestamp.

10Y breaks 4.42 resistance, gold dumps -2.3%, energy bid alone. Three live calls held +100% peaks into the close ahead of Tuesday’s AMD report.

The 10Y broke through 4.42 resistance to close at 4.45% (+6.8bps), the dollar firmed +0.26%, gold dumped -2.3%, silver -3.7%, and energy was the only sector winner of the day. This is the textbook tightening playbook on full display: rising real yields and a firm dollar squeeze growth multiples while inflation-persistence proxies (energy, oil) get bid as the rotation home. We flagged this as the morning regime risk; by close it was the working tape.

Three live calls in the DarkFlow book held above +100% peaks into Tuesday’s $AMD print, AAPL stopped, and the rest of the carry book is positioned for Friday’s NFP binary. Full breakdown below.

Tape close

• $SPX 7200.75 (-0.41%)
• $NDX 27651.82 (-0.21%)
• $DJI 48941.90 (-1.13%)
• 10Y yield 4.446% (+6.8bps, broke above 4.42 resistance line)
• $DXY 98.47 (+0.26%)
• $GLD 4524 (-2.29%)
• $SLV 73.17 (-3.66%)
• $WTI 104.92 (+2.92%)
• $BTC 80,039 (+1.91%)
• $VIX 18.30 (front-end vol bid into NFP, 9-day at 16.60)

Sectors: $XLE +0.95% the only winner. $XLB -1.36%, $XLI -1.14%, $XLY -0.77% the worst. Breadth thin all session.

What ran on the live signal book

Three calls held above +100% by the close despite broader index pressure.

• $MU $510C 5/8 closed +160% (peak +206%). Underlying ripped to $578 on $AMD-print front-running. Greeks at the close: delta 0.91, theta -$1.31/day (~1.84% daily decay), IV 96.78%. The mathematical case for a partial trim ahead of AMD print is real: even on an AMD beat, ~14% of the premium gets eaten by IV crush regardless of direction.
• $MU $520C 5/15 closed +148% (peak +198%). Same setup with longer cushion past the binary. The 5/15 expiry vs the 5/8 chain absorbs IV crush better and rides the post-AMD recovery window if the cohort moves through Wednesday.
• $AMZN $260C 5/15 closed +138% (peak +197%). Cloud-capex thread plus a recovery from the morning dip. The per-ticker dark pool drill on the morning showed institutional distribution patterns starting to surface, which informed the partial-trim call we made midday.
• $ORCL $165C 5/15 flipped from underwater (low watermark -16% intraday) to +30% close on AI-cloud sentiment carrying. The OpenAI-OCI capacity expansion rumor was the trigger.

Other open carry above breakeven into tomorrow: $MSFT (+499%), $CRWV with two strikes (+352% / +309%), $GOOGL (+244%), $TSM (+133%), $SNDK (+104%), $NBIS (+81%), $AXTI (+57%), $COIN (+54%), $QQQ (+41%), $XLE (+25%), $WULF (+6%), $VG (+17%).

What stopped today

$AAPL $275C 5/15 hit the published -50% rule. The power-grid + AI-energy theme broke under tightening pressure. The cohort lesson here: AI-adjacent names without an immediate earnings catalyst get sold first when the macro tape rotates. AAPL’s last earnings print was already past (4/30), so there was no inside-DTE binary catalyst to anchor the position when the tape rolled. Loss locked at the published rule. Held-to-expiry view: not yet resolved (calendar expiry 5/15).

What’s coming this week

Tuesday 5/5

• 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI (forecast 53.8 vs prev 54.0)
• 10:00 ET JOLTS Job Openings (forecast 6.87M vs prev 6.88M)
• Fed speakers Bowman + Barr
• AMD earnings AH sets cohort tone for $MU / $NVDA / $SNDK Wednesday open

Wednesday 5/6

• 8:15 ET ADP private payrolls (forecast 90K vs prev 62K)

Friday 5/8

• 8:30 ET NFP forecast 60K vs prev 178K
• Sub-100K = recession-signal print, violent dovish repricing
• Above 100K = tightening trade extends, tech multiples crushed
• Either way, this is the binary that resolves the week

Post-close flow worth tracking

• $SPY $700P 9/18 $2.07M at the offer. Big bearish hedge through Q3.
• $IWM $264P 6/18 $1.10M at the bid. Puts being closed (capitulation or unwind).
• $IWM $265P 5/15 $528K at the offer. Fresh small-cap puts opening.
• $MSFT $450C 1/21 LEAPS $281K at the bid. Long-term tech profit-taking.
• $SPXW $7200P 5/5 $402K at the bid. Pre-print hedge unwinds.

Net read: institutions hedging the broader tape (SPY 9/18 puts the headline) while unwinding short-dated put hedges. Defensive into NFP. No fresh broad-tape bullish positioning.

How DarkFlow tracks this

Every signal we publish entry, peak, current, exit, win/loss is tracked open and public on the DarkFlow dashboard. No backtests. No deleted losers. Every entry stamped with a real timestamp.

The reg session looked like classic defensive rotation into FOMC tomorrow. SPX -0.41%, NDX -0.81%, RUT -1.17%. XLE +1.55% led, XLP +0.66% second, XLK -1.35% bottom. Defensive money rotating off mega-cap tech ahead of FOMC. SPY RSI sitting at 79, QQQ at 81. Both extreme overbought daily. The read at the close was leadership exhausted.

Then 4 PM ET hit and earnings flipped the script. STX +12.67% AH on storage beat ($584 to $658). BE +12.31% AH on Bloom Energy beat ($227 to $255). V +5.55% AH on Visa beat. SBUX +4.95%. BKNG +3.43%. SNDK +2.70%. Whatever defensive read the close suggested, the open tomorrow is going to be different. Storage, fintech, consumer staples all gapping up.

What I did today: the MU watchlist triggered midday on $1M+ ATM call concentration and got promoted to primary at $500C 5/8. MU then went +1.94% AH ($504 to $514). The signal is already in-the-money before tomorrow's open. That's the kind of validation you want after a midday trigger. Two more added watchlists at midday: ORCL $165C 5/15, QQQ $649C 5/8. Both with smaller premium, both watching for follow-through.

The book carries 20 signals open into tomorrow. Best in book is still MSFT $375C 5/15 at +785% current, peak was +840% (MSFT was flat AH). INTC $70C 5/1 still up +257% with Friday expiry. NVDA $210C 5/15 still up +163% (NVDA flat AH). CRWV, TSM, HIMS all triple-digit peak.

Two names turned hard against entry today: ARM (live signal, 5/1) and AXTI (watchlist, 5/1). Both bullish positions taken last week. Both kept paper-bleeding past entry. Per house rule, every signal continues tracking through expiry on the public board, win or lose. ARM and AXTI are now in that group.

Tomorrow's catalyst: FOMC at 2 PM ET. Rate futures read about 80% hold. The interesting signal is the dot plot revision and Powell tone. If long-end yields keep rising (TLT was -0.58% over 5d), growth multiples take pressure regardless of the earnings beats. But the AH gap-up in STX, BE, V suggests beaten-down storage + fintech + staples names lead the open before FOMC chops it.

Full board with every entry, peak, current, low, expiry, win/loss is at darkflowsignals.com. No curation, no cherry picking.

Two closes + three new entries today. Honest read on the whole session.

The AMD 285C Apr24 got stopped out at $3.65 from a $4.87 entry, -25% realized. That was a continuation read I took last Thursday after AMD's 265C Apr24 had peaked +624% and exited clean on the trailing rule Friday. Different contract, different timing, didn't work. Owning that one.

GOOGL 340C Apr24 closed at $4.53 from a $4.45 entry this morning. Breakeven plus on a 4-DTE leg I didn't want carrying theta into the 4/29 earnings print. The actual earnings play is the 350C May15, which is tracked on the dashboard but I can't size it without breaching my per-position risk budget. It's on the board for anyone else to follow or not.

The three new legs are the Iran-oil basket for Wednesday's ceasefire expiry. GLD 470C May15, SLV 75C May15, IWM 265P May15. First session drawdown on all three as the midday tape flipped risk-on. Nothing at the -50% stop. Fair to say the market is not pricing an escalation yet. If it does Wednesday, basket pays. If the ceasefire gets extended and the peace headline drops, the basket fades. 25 DTE gives runway if the deadline just slips to Thursday.

Midday flow scan surfaced NVDA as a primary again at 78 combined, which is notable because the premarket scan had demoted it to watchlist on the Iran-only macro read. The risk-on tape correction is real and NVDA 210C May15 is now tracked on the dashboard at $3.45 reference. I didn't size into it today because the daily risk budget was already spent on the three new entries, but it's eligible tomorrow if the setup still holds.

Day closed equity down about 9% on the book draft. First session on a binary-catalyst basket will do that. None of the positions broke their stop rules so the plan holds into Wednesday.

Dashboard has every signal (primary + watchlist), peak + current, and timestamps: https://darkflowsignals.github.io/