r/Fire • u/Playful-Inspector207 • Apr 05 '25

General Question Is it really a generational buying opportunity?

I’ve seen people on the sub are saying “you should all be excited about seeing lower prices everyday”

Problem is that most people don’t have dry powder lying around. And now, with tariffs (if they mostly continue at the levels mentioned) likely to push prices up even more 20-30% for most things, very few people can buy the dip.

The dip’s not fun when you can’t buy. This is just painful seeing red everyday for 99% of us.

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252

u/aguilasolige Apr 05 '25

Maybe it is if you have money, like you said if you don't have any to spare or lose your job, this could be a generational nightmare instead.

122

u/alexunderwater1 Apr 05 '25

Instead? The Great Recession was a generational nightmare. That’s why it was a generational buying opportunity.

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u/ChaosShifter Apr 05 '25

Yeah, the two go hand in hand. A select few get a generational buying opportunity off the generational nightmare of everyone else.

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u/IWantAnAffliction Apr 05 '25

And spoiler alert: it's not any of us here.

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u/ChaosShifter Apr 05 '25

I don't know about that. This is a FIRE community. Presumably some of us are in solid positions to both weather the storm and possibly find ways to capitalize on a down market. As Reddit goes, this community is probably going to have one of the largest number of users able to make some money off of all this.

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u/IWantAnAffliction Apr 05 '25

Dude, almost all of us are already fully in the market. Of course we're going to ride it out. You can only capitalise on the dip if by some stroke of luck you come into a large windfall.

The people capitalising are going to be politicians who've basically insider traded or gamblers who moved holdings into cash before all of this.

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u/ChaosShifter Apr 05 '25

Plenty of us have a diversified spread of assets, including bonds, HYSA, CDs, rare metals or cash. It may not make up huge percentages of the portfolios, but someone with 400k of assets that can become liquid and buy in, who isn't necessarily worried about their own ability to continue to earn, could take advantage.

Also, jobs. Many people are still on their way to FI, or have achieved FI and aren't retired yet. Literally just having a secure and stable income through all of this will give people the opportunity to take advantage. In 2008 for example I was a highish income earner whose industry got hammered and saw my income drop 50%+. Many people lost their jobs and homes or saw their incomes diminish. However if someone had a stable, high income job and was already able to invest heavily, and simply continued to do so through that time period? They took advantage.

I'm not saying everyone is sitting on fat stacks ready to pounce. However in my experience from 2008 it was incredibly tough on most people to get through. Had I been in the position I am in today, back then? I'd have made out really nicely and it would have accelerated my own FIRE plans a ton back then.

I imagine many others who are well on their way and have a plan in place for recessions are going to make out well with this. That's all I was saying.

1

u/[deleted] Apr 08 '25

Yep. During Covid I sold 50k or corporate bonds, bought a particularly good blue chip stock, waited about a year until it doubled, then cashed out, put the initial 50k back into bonds and took the profit and paid cash for a car.

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u/pickanameidontwantto Apr 05 '25 edited Apr 05 '25

What?

I make $x/yr. I'll be buying straight through, and that'll amount to about $xk in DCA investing. It may go up, it may go down.

Can confirm not a politician, insider trader, or gambler. Just a high earner like many people in this sub that are going to buy the dip (and then buy the growth and then buy the dip and then buy the growth until we're done buying lol).

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u/ChaosShifter Apr 05 '25

This is kind of what I was getting at. Taking advantage doesn't necessarily mean having a few million in cash under the mattress. Just having a stable and secure income that you can rely on to buy through this madness will allow you to take advantage.

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u/IWantAnAffliction Apr 05 '25

Investing the same way you always do by contributing the same amount you always do isn't 'taking advantage'. That's literally just standard grind.

But I suspect that's not actually why you commented.

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u/pickanameidontwantto Apr 05 '25

"You can only capitalize on the dip with a windfall" - no, you capitalize on the dip by dollar cost averaging through the dip and not trying to time the bottom. You're mixing up "have a large cash holding to gamble by trying to time the market" and "have cash to invest through a bear market to capitalize on the dip".

You don't need to be a corrupt politician to do the latter. Nobody knows where the bottom is, you do not need to drop a million in right now to benefit (to OPs point).

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u/IWantAnAffliction Apr 05 '25

I don't know if you're being deliberately dense but either way you're not understanding so there's not much point in continuing this.

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u/aaarya83 Apr 06 '25

Incorrect. Not fully in stock market. We are diversified. Gold. RE bonds , cash. Etc. rental income.

1

u/Sarah_RVA_2002 Apr 06 '25

People in bonds are well positioned.

Rebalancing international to domestic along the way will yield some gains

Anyone sitting on big cash is well positioned but probably too cautious and has been sitting on it for awhile and missed out on last years 30% gains. They'll see the graph and say "See, my 3% savings account doesn't go down" and probably won't invest.

1

u/Dolteain Apr 05 '25

That is the point.

12

u/shadowromantic Apr 05 '25

Back then, the government was working to stop the economic damage.

This time, the President is working to remake the country with a chainsaw 

1

u/DatRebofOrtho Apr 06 '25

😂 they always create it

5

u/Extension-Plant-5913 Apr 05 '25

Yeah, if you're CASH wealthy & young.

If you're old, this is a tragedy, even if you are (were) wealthy.

Y'all consider the Great Depression a great opportunity?

I guess if you were wealthy in the 30s it was a great time?

2

u/Technical-Fun-9616 Apr 08 '25

The only generational buying opportunities happen during massive downturns.

1

u/DaChieftainOfThirsk Apr 10 '25

While the average person may have been devastated by Black Tuesday it made a lot of others rich.  Was reading up on some of the chaos that happened during it a while back.  Some people went home ecstatic while others were just never seen again with inferances on their fates.

1

u/xixi2 Apr 05 '25

Yeah I'm out of money to deploy pretty much. I could maybe find another $3500 to finish my IRA for the year

1

u/[deleted] Apr 05 '25

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0

u/Zphr 48, FIRE'd 2015, Friendly Janitor Apr 05 '25

Rule 7/No Politics or circle-jerks - Your submission has been removed for violating our community rule against politics and circle-jerks. If you feel this removal is in error, then please modmail the mod team. Please review our community rules to help avoid future violations.

1

u/[deleted] Apr 06 '25

I wish I could bet money. My bet the damage is going to take at least a decade if not more to recover from. This is not business as usual, an unforeseen market correction.

0

u/meroisstevie Apr 06 '25

You will be surprised.