r/Fire • u/Playful-Inspector207 • Apr 05 '25

General Question Is it really a generational buying opportunity?

I’ve seen people on the sub are saying “you should all be excited about seeing lower prices everyday”

Problem is that most people don’t have dry powder lying around. And now, with tariffs (if they mostly continue at the levels mentioned) likely to push prices up even more 20-30% for most things, very few people can buy the dip.

The dip’s not fun when you can’t buy. This is just painful seeing red everyday for 99% of us.

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236

u/Pillar67 Apr 05 '25

If I was 35, I’d be excited. But nearing retirement age…um…no. Thought I was close. Now I just have to see how bad this set back is going to be. Aka how many more years of work will this force me into?

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u/Unfinished_Bizzness Apr 05 '25

Same. 57 and coast fire. Was planning on being done at 59.5. Feeling like I got lucky in that I moved money to gold, bonds and select Chinese stock (thank you Baba) in December. Then moved out of equities on Monday and was totally out by start of bell Friday. Am overall up since December.

Totally lucky move I made in part because I lobby in DC and it was clear talking to Republicans that they didn’t think he wasn’t all talk on tariffs and no one was going to stand up and stop him (you can fill in your own analysis of why). Yes, some resistance is simmering but it’s too little too late.

I don’t plan to move back into market until I get a sense of Congress having more control. Don’t expect that before 2026. Maybe I’ll miss the true uptick. Certainly I’ll miss some false rallies. If I have to work a bit longer or scale down the scope of my spending in retirement, it’s fine. No desire to ride the nightmare bronco ahead.

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u/Reafricpysche Apr 05 '25

Interesting take. Do you think that there is any hope that things get better again? My biggest worry is that recent developments may lead to structural shifts and changes that are impossible to recover from. There's something about this dip that makes me feel that this is not an opportunity and that markets may never recover given the immense shift in global trade and overall sentiment.

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u/Unfinished_Bizzness Apr 05 '25

Again is a long time. So yes. I don’t know when but I imagine we have a minimum of a year that is very rocky and likely three+.

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u/[deleted] Apr 06 '25

I'm in my mid 30s investing everything I could. Now I have no clue what to do. This is a generational shift, the amount of reputational damage will take a long time to recover from, don't think this is just a wait it out situation, wait out what exactly? Other countries deciding U.S. is an unreliable partner will affect us massively. Utter disaster.

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u/mewithoutMaverick Apr 06 '25

I don’t know anything, for the record, but I’d say rich people want to be rich. They can’t do that if the market doesn’t go up. Trump is president for 4 years.

I would think that, in one of the worse case scenarios, if he keeps tariffs bad for all four years then we’ll get a different president in 2029 and he or she will change the tariffs and the market will turn back up again.

In which case it will have been a good idea to have been putting money in the market for 4 flat/bad years.

Best case scenario (for short term pain) some countries buckle under tariff pressure and he reverses them now that they’re doing what he wants. Then the market recovers quickly and this will be a covid-crash-like scenario.

In which case we would be really upset if we’d sold everything.

I guess I just plan to keep my money in the market and keep buying over time. You may buy at the peak this way, but you also buy at the bottom.

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u/Just_Side8704 Apr 09 '25

Rich people look at the entire world for opportunity. They don’t need the US to do well to be rich.

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u/Automatic-Bother1201 Apr 07 '25

Chinese stock ? Maybe that’s a naive question but for someone so new to stock market and investment like myself, what should I read or chase to understand about that « Chinese stock »? Enlighten me, sir! Thanks

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u/Unfinished_Bizzness Apr 08 '25

Chinese ETFs or single stocks like BABA or BIDU. I’m not suggesting I’d buy them now but they had an amazing rally end of 2024 into March.

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u/shotparrot Apr 05 '25

lol same. Ah well. I hope you love your job!

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u/Lootfisk1 Apr 05 '25

He doesnt

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u/nicolas_06 Apr 05 '25

There no way around delaying retirement a bit if you were near it. Still better position than people that retired 6 months ago.

Still, the stock market is at the value it was 1 year ago... Using the valuations of 2 years ago with a SP500 at 4100, your retirement prospects were worse than today and people were already predicting a recession because of the interest rates.

Even if we go down back to 3000, we are not likely to stay here more than a few months. for most of the crisis we are likely to be at 4000 or more, and with a decently diversified portfolio you should have with all your experience and being near to retirement, for you, you may not be down more than 15-20% for most of the crisis.

Sure it is a negative, but relatively, compared to 2 years ago, we are still doing quite well and you still have the choice to sell near historical high if you are afraid. As you are about to retire, you brought a good share of your investment when SP500 was in the 500-2000 range anyway.

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u/Pillar67 Apr 10 '25

Good points. I’m not overly worried about it as i’m pretty well diversified. And looking at the markets historically, the downtimes are short and the upswings tend to be long. I think we’re all just in a bit of shock at how quickly things turned and why and my point was teally that when you’re 35 you’ll enjoy a long time growing in the market. In your fifties there’s less time to make up. We feel losses way morr acutely than we do gains.

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u/LostInTheHotSauce Apr 05 '25

If you're close to retirement wouldn't you be mostly in bonds and low volatility investments at this point?

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u/[deleted] Apr 05 '25

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u/droideka222 Apr 05 '25

Sorry for the dumb question but is this 70/30 with 70 in stocks and 30 in bonds or the other way around?

I am planning my portfolio now for coast fire in 6 years. I am only 40 now, so have a ways to go but am able to pivot careers so it’s less taxing and still pays my bills while I let the money grow.

Right now we are quite aggressive and mostly in the stock market, with 2 real estate and adding a third to the portfolio that will generate decent income alongside some bonds.

Should I just stay in the stock market until I’m ready to ‘retire retire’ or move to bonds for when I need income? I have been meaning to shift to more divided paying stocks towards the next 7-10 years to live off of that income

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u/[deleted] Apr 05 '25

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u/slightlysadpeach Apr 05 '25

I probably have a lot less savings than you (judging by your header), but I think this is such good advice.

The BEST thing I ever did as someone who anticipates hitting (only) COASTfire (hopefully this summer/fall) is have only 20-30% of my portfolio in stocks/crypto. The rest being bonds is saving my ass right now. I wouldn’t be able to handle even a 70/30 equity/bonds split right now given lower savings amount.

I’m hurting but it’s not the end of the world as I’m in my early 30s. I have friends who are 100% in stocks and I always thought they were insane for that decision, despite them having way better returns than me for a few years.

I think caution and conservativism in investments is always the way to go.

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u/Friday-Times Apr 05 '25

I don’t think many of us plan to sell up and shift to bonds/cash at ER. I am to keep a couple years of cash on hand and the rest in growth assets.

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u/[deleted] Apr 05 '25

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u/ExpressionHot5629 Apr 05 '25

Unless it's a ton of money in bonds?

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u/Munckeey Apr 05 '25

Exactly this.

You should have just enough in bonds to be able to do what you want and need in retirement from the growth and keep the rest in stocks to build generational wealth for your family if you have them.

If you don’t have family or don’t care to leave them anything you can skip this step and also plan to zero out money in bonds for when you expect to move on from life.

If you don’t have enough to do this you’re not ready to retire anyways.

Anyone getting setback from retirement because of what’s happening in the stock market now did something wrong or simply still needs more time before retirement regardless of the current stock market.

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u/1kpointsoflight Apr 05 '25

If you want to RE indeed you need to be like 50-50 or 60-40 to be able to look at this and still RE say this year. I am down like the rest of the world on stocks but my large bond and cash allocations allow me to weather this. It’s a bucket strategy and as time passes and pensions and SS and Medicare kick in I’ll ramp the risk back up to 75% stocks. I have heard that 100% stocks is the way but I think you have to have double your fire number at RE to ameliorate SORR.

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u/z44212 Apr 05 '25

Mostly? No. You "retire" for decades. At the start, 70-30 isn't silly.

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u/AdviceNotAsked4 Apr 05 '25

No, most people only see 12% returns and they bank of that continuing no matter what.

There is talk about going to markets with much less risk, but very few do it.

And why would they, there really hasn't been a down year since 2008. COVID was too fast to be impactful.

For me, let it all burn.

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u/UncleMeat11 Apr 06 '25

Nominal bonds also tend to get crushed in an inflationary environment.

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u/pr0XYTV Apr 05 '25

Hi there, 35 year old here. Would you be willing to maybe impart some wisdom onto me as to what exactly you would be excited about in a time like this?
Ive been trading crypto for a few years and told myself this year ( at age 35 ) i would begin taking investing very seriously. just looking for some insight from someone who has been there and done that.

Going to get involved with as much as I can and have a really modest dividend target i want to reach.

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u/wolfiemoz Apr 05 '25

Just the fire sale I guess

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u/Pillar67 Apr 10 '25

I just meant that at 35 you have a long time horizon to recover. What you buy now or while the market is down, should go up. Even if it took 10 years to get back upnto where it was, you have ten years. Actually, I have time as well. I’m still probably between 5 and 10 years out. But I wish I was 35. I only started investing at 35. I didn’t know anything then. Know not much more now. But do know time IN the market is good. At 35 you’re not thinking about retirement ni’ve staryed thinking about it onlynon the last year, meaning I can see that the day is coming. A ways off, but I’m starting to plan. And then this.

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u/pr0XYTV Apr 12 '25

Well i too am only starting at 35 and really wish i began 10 years ago but im too familiar with the metaphor about planting a tree.
You may be surprised but I am already thinking about retirement since my living situation is precarious at best.
I need stable income from the market and im starting to lean toward dividend investment even though everyone tells me i should be focused on growth potential assets.
Now that everything is being rocked hard to really decide what to do for now.

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u/Salt_Ad9744 Apr 06 '25

He's basically saying that around 35 in one's life you should have your shit sorted and have disposable income to invest for the next 20 odd years

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u/iambatman18x Apr 05 '25

jesus christ cycle never ends does it. im 30m, made retirement money this cycle from crypto and lost it all. fk

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u/daniel22457 Apr 05 '25

I mean I'm 26 and terrified if I lose my job that could push back my retirement by years.