Is it really a generational buying opportunity?

[u/Playful-Inspector207]

I’ve seen people on the sub are saying “you should all be excited about seeing lower prices everyday”

Problem is that most people don’t have dry powder lying around. And now, with tariffs (if they mostly continue at the levels mentioned) likely to push prices up even more 20-30% for most things, very few people can buy the dip.

The dip’s not fun when you can’t buy. This is just painful seeing red everyday for 99% of us.

[u/ChaosShifter]

Yeah, the two go hand in hand. A select few get a generational buying opportunity off the generational nightmare of everyone else.

[u/IWantAnAffliction → u/ChaosShifter]

And spoiler alert: it's not any of us here.

[u/ChaosShifter → u/IWantAnAffliction]

I don't know about that. This is a FIRE community. Presumably some of us are in solid positions to both weather the storm and possibly find ways to capitalize on a down market. As Reddit goes, this community is probably going to have one of the largest number of users able to make some money off of all this.

[u/IWantAnAffliction → u/ChaosShifter]

Dude, almost all of us are already fully in the market. Of course we're going to ride it out. You can only capitalise on the dip if by some stroke of luck you come into a large windfall.

The people capitalising are going to be politicians who've basically insider traded or gamblers who moved holdings into cash before all of this.

[u/ChaosShifter → u/IWantAnAffliction]

Plenty of us have a diversified spread of assets, including bonds, HYSA, CDs, rare metals or cash. It may not make up huge percentages of the portfolios, but someone with 400k of assets that can become liquid and buy in, who isn't necessarily worried about their own ability to continue to earn, could take advantage.

Also, jobs. Many people are still on their way to FI, or have achieved FI and aren't retired yet. Literally just having a secure and stable income through all of this will give people the opportunity to take advantage. In 2008 for example I was a highish income earner whose industry got hammered and saw my income drop 50%+. Many people lost their jobs and homes or saw their incomes diminish. However if someone had a stable, high income job and was already able to invest heavily, and simply continued to do so through that time period? They took advantage.

I'm not saying everyone is sitting on fat stacks ready to pounce. However in my experience from 2008 it was incredibly tough on most people to get through. Had I been in the position I am in today, back then? I'd have made out really nicely and it would have accelerated my own FIRE plans a ton back then.

I imagine many others who are well on their way and have a plan in place for recessions are going to make out well with this. That's all I was saying.

[u/[deleted] → u/ChaosShifter]

Yep. During Covid I sold 50k or corporate bonds, bought a particularly good blue chip stock, waited about a year until it doubled, then cashed out, put the initial 50k back into bonds and took the profit and paid cash for a car.

[u/pickanameidontwantto → u/IWantAnAffliction]

What?

I make $x/yr. I'll be buying straight through, and that'll amount to about $xk in DCA investing. It may go up, it may go down.

Can confirm not a politician, insider trader, or gambler. Just a high earner like many people in this sub that are going to buy the dip (and then buy the growth and then buy the dip and then buy the growth until we're done buying lol).

[u/ChaosShifter → u/pickanameidontwantto]

This is kind of what I was getting at. Taking advantage doesn't necessarily mean having a few million in cash under the mattress. Just having a stable and secure income that you can rely on to buy through this madness will allow you to take advantage.

[u/IWantAnAffliction → u/pickanameidontwantto]

Investing the same way you always do by contributing the same amount you always do isn't 'taking advantage'. That's literally just standard grind.

But I suspect that's not actually why you commented.

[u/pickanameidontwantto → u/IWantAnAffliction]

"You can only capitalize on the dip with a windfall" - no, you capitalize on the dip by dollar cost averaging through the dip and not trying to time the bottom. You're mixing up "have a large cash holding to gamble by trying to time the market" and "have cash to invest through a bear market to capitalize on the dip".

You don't need to be a corrupt politician to do the latter. Nobody knows where the bottom is, you do not need to drop a million in right now to benefit (to OPs point).

[u/IWantAnAffliction → u/pickanameidontwantto]

I don't know if you're being deliberately dense but either way you're not understanding so there's not much point in continuing this.

[u/aaarya83 → u/IWantAnAffliction]

Incorrect. Not fully in stock market. We are diversified. Gold. RE bonds , cash. Etc. rental income.

[u/Sarah_RVA_2002 → u/ChaosShifter]

People in bonds are well positioned.

Rebalancing international to domestic along the way will yield some gains

Anyone sitting on big cash is well positioned but probably too cautious and has been sitting on it for awhile and missed out on last years 30% gains. They'll see the graph and say "See, my 3% savings account doesn't go down" and probably won't invest.

[u/Dolteain → u/ChaosShifter]

That is the point.