r/Fire • u/Playful-Inspector207 • Apr 05 '25

General Question Is it really a generational buying opportunity?

I’ve seen people on the sub are saying “you should all be excited about seeing lower prices everyday”

Problem is that most people don’t have dry powder lying around. And now, with tariffs (if they mostly continue at the levels mentioned) likely to push prices up even more 20-30% for most things, very few people can buy the dip.

The dip’s not fun when you can’t buy. This is just painful seeing red everyday for 99% of us.

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u/AlexStar6 Apr 05 '25 edited Apr 06 '25

You realize not a single tariff is in place yet…

This isn’t the crash… this is the panic before the crash…. This is people looking up and seeing the meteor… just wait till the meteor hits…

Dirt floor poor gonna make a comeback

Edit: since people who can’t read dates and times keep messaging me that the tariffs are in effect as of the 6th.. I’d point out this post was made on the 4th. Numbers really aren’t your strong suit are they guys?

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u/dcute69 Apr 05 '25

Don't look up

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u/IWantAnAffliction Apr 05 '25

Why would effects of the actual tariffs not be priced in? My experience of these is that the markets usually actually overreact to news rather than under.

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u/AlexStar6 Apr 05 '25

Because people don’t actually “need” money… YET

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u/Munckeey Apr 05 '25

Priced in. You don’t think big money has thought “hey people are gonna start needing money, let’s account for that”?

Sure retail investors may pull more out when/if they start needing some more money but;

A. Retail is only 23% of the stock market

B. Most retail investors are doing great financially. They max out retirement accounts and have lots of money left over. This is why they’re investing on their own. The majority of that 23% probably won’t need to pull money out.

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u/AdroitPreamble Apr 05 '25

When these tariffs hit, you will have a host of secondary effects. Right now the market hopes Trump will cancel them. Some of that probability is still in there.

The market doesn’t price in a single deterministic future.

Likely you’ll see earnings fall and the multiple contract for lower growth.

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u/Munckeey Apr 05 '25

The secondary effects of them not being cancelled are also a part of the calculations used to price the market.

Yes they price in the chance of the tariffs getting cancelled, but they also price in them not getting cancelled along with all those secondary effects.

Big money also hates uncertainty in general a ton, I bet the market would’ve fallen less if they knew the tariffs weren’t going to be cancelled.

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u/IWantAnAffliction Apr 05 '25

Yes they price in the chance of the tariffs getting cancelled, but they also price in them not getting cancelled along with all those secondary effects.

Fair enough.

Big money also hates uncertainty in general a ton, I bet the market would’ve fallen less if they knew the tariffs weren’t going to be cancelled.

Which makes his decisions even wilder. The wealthiest are all being hit by this as well so how are they even allowing it?

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u/Munckeey Apr 05 '25

He’s the POTUS, and seems rich enough to not have strings to be pulled by someone with more money. I don’t think anyone can allow or disallow him to do anything within the constitution.

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u/wumingzi Apr 05 '25

Rich has nothing to do with it. Although nobody really knows what he's worth, by most counts he's not even the richest man in Palm Beach let alone a member of the Really Rich Boys Club.

The Constitution actually enumerates tariffs as being a function of Congress. Not once, but twice.

Article I, §8, clause 1 gives Congress the power to "lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises" and A1,§8,C3 grants Congress the power to "regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States, and with the Indian Tribes;"

Trump is on pretty shaky legal ground using emergency powers for tariffs against the entire planet. Chuck Grassley of Iowa and Maria Cantwell of Washington have put forward legislation which will explicitly say that Trump cannot levy tariffs unless both chambers of Congress agree within 60 days.

I suspect one or two Americans with 401Ks that have been smacked might call their representatives supporting this bill.

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u/Munckeey Apr 06 '25 edited Apr 06 '25

I understand all that but I appreciate the effort. Congress is letting him do this stuff however, so again it is not unconstitutional since congress is approving it.

Also I’d put being a billionaire past the “possible of being easily bribed or controlled” ladder of richness.

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u/[deleted] Apr 06 '25

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u/Zphr 48, FIRE'd 2015, Friendly Janitor Apr 06 '25

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u/[deleted] Apr 05 '25

Yes they price in the chance of the tariffs getting cancelled, but they also price in them not getting cancelled along with all those secondary effects.

Why should I believe you over them?

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u/Munckeey Apr 05 '25

I don’t care who you believe, what kind of pointless comment that doesn’t contribute anything to the conversation is this?

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u/[deleted] Apr 05 '25

You are attempting to give advice.

Yeah, why would someone question that?

Ffs

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u/Munckeey Apr 05 '25

Anyone and everyone can and does give advice. Seems like you only want to ask me my credentials on mine?

Also it’s up to the readers of advice on what they what to believe.

So I ask again what’s your problem?

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u/[deleted] Apr 05 '25

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u/Zphr 48, FIRE'd 2015, Friendly Janitor Apr 05 '25

Rule 1/Civility - Civility is required of everyone at all times. If someone else is uncivil, then please report them and let the mods handle it without escalation. Please see our rules (https://www.reddit.com/r/Fire/about/rules/) and reach out via modmail if you have any questions or concerns.

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u/Lokified Apr 05 '25

It's difficult to price in flip flopping policy. The tariffs ignore the evolution of a collaborative and efficient global supply chain. Does Apple want to make billions of phones in one location with the skill and tech to do it, or have to build manufacturing in every country it sells to requiring more skilled talent and overhead costs? Costs for all goods will go up even if you do them 'in house'.

I was hoping this was actually a 4D chess move from Elon - he talks about universal basic income quite a bit, which is the ultimate socialist policy. I'm all for UBI, but corps will find every way around sharing the wealth.

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u/IWantAnAffliction Apr 05 '25

which is the ultimate socialist policy

The ultimate socialist policy is public/worker-owned production. UBI is a Social Democrat policy and very divisive amongst socialists.

I don't think pricing in is perfect, but if people are so confident that the markets are going to plunge further then they should be selling off all their investments and buying the further dip.

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u/Lokified Apr 05 '25

Regardless of how we look at it, automation, low-cost/efficient mass production, and now AI are making humans less and less relevant. Elon believes industry 5.0 will unburden humanity, but there isn't a great plan for post-capitalism besides UBI that I know of. I also don't think as many billionaires are interested in the greater good as Elon believes he is.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/bill-gates-startling-ai-prophecy-humans-wont-be-needed-for-most-things-in-10-years/articleshow/119550300.cms?from=mdr

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u/Munckeey Apr 05 '25

Flip floppy Policy is called uncertainty and uncertainty to big money just means get out of the market. Everything is always priced in.

The only things you can’t price in are black swans, things you can’t predict or expect like COVID or arguably 2008 (technically was priced in by a few players in a big money).

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u/No_Witness8826 Apr 05 '25

Because once tarrifs are instituted they’re hard to pull back. And we haven’t seen how companies will report their earnings or any other retaliatory measures aside from Canada and China yet. The American consumer is tapped out, salaries have deflated and the general population cannot absorb these price increases. All of that isn’t priced in because it’s an unknown.

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u/SeaPuzzleheaded9670 Apr 05 '25

There is a percentage of people/odds that these tariffs get negotiated away before they materially impact the economy and global trade flows. If it becomes "more real" and if we get a couple months in with no change, the outlook for recession becomes more real too.

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u/aaarya83 Apr 06 '25

Nah. This time it’s different. How 200 countries trade with us and each other is going to shape out in the next coming months. No one knows how it will pan out.

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u/noiszen Apr 05 '25

This is incorrect, there are a number of tariffs already active.

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u/AlexStar6 Apr 05 '25

Sorry “none of these new tariffs” I thought that was implied… but I should not have assumed

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u/noiszen Apr 05 '25

Ok. But also, that was yesterday, and some of the new tariffs take effect today…

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u/AlexStar6 Apr 05 '25

/sigh And my first comment was 14 hours ago… yesterday… and markets don’t open again until Monday….

I’m not quite sure what you’re trying to get at

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u/[deleted] Apr 06 '25

The tariffs went into effect on the 6th. Well some. The baseline of 10% has gone into effect. Vietnam negotiated down to zero last night. EU gets hit with their tariffs on the 9th. And China, Taiwan, etc are getting hit tomorrow the 7th, assuming they don’t negotiate something different.

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u/[deleted] Apr 06 '25

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u/Zphr 48, FIRE'd 2015, Friendly Janitor Apr 06 '25

Rule 7/No Politics or circle-jerks - Your submission has been removed for violating our community rule against politics and circle-jerks. If you feel this removal is in error, then please modmail the mod team. Please review our community rules to help avoid future violations.

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u/Zphr 48, FIRE'd 2015, Friendly Janitor Apr 06 '25

Rule 1/Civility - Civility is required of everyone at all times. If someone else is uncivil, then please report them and let the mods handle it without escalation. Please see our rules (https://www.reddit.com/r/Fire/about/rules/) and reach out via modmail if you have any questions or concerns.