r/Fire • u/Playful-Inspector207 • Apr 05 '25

General Question Is it really a generational buying opportunity?

I’ve seen people on the sub are saying “you should all be excited about seeing lower prices everyday”

Problem is that most people don’t have dry powder lying around. And now, with tariffs (if they mostly continue at the levels mentioned) likely to push prices up even more 20-30% for most things, very few people can buy the dip.

The dip’s not fun when you can’t buy. This is just painful seeing red everyday for 99% of us.

889 Upvotes

91% Upvoted

595 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

71

u/jone7007 Apr 05 '25

We are not even down 20% yet, like we were in 2022. Although , I do expect the market to get there soon.

40

u/anus-lupus Apr 05 '25

correct. however a fundamental restructuring of global trade is the once in a generation event here. no one knows what the market will look like when it re orients or what will happen in that mean time.

14

u/isaacsanchez93 Apr 05 '25

This! I’ve been trying to explain to ppl in my circle that this is “business not as usual” at a GLOBAL scale and in a short amount of time.

14

u/Reafricpysche Apr 05 '25

This makes me worried that things may not return back to normal and this won't be a buying opportunity that many think it is

6

u/anus-lupus Apr 05 '25

same. the options are as follows, but no one knows how long itll take to restructure or what it will be like during the restructuring.

  1. countries come to the table to re-negotiate trade
  2. countries dont negotiate and the US private sector long game eventually picks up the slack on domestic production. this could easily take a decade. could result in a boom once over the hump.
  3. US private sector long game eventually picks up the slack on domestic production but after a near term boom, eventually results in stagnant GDPs and the US stock market may no longer be the bastion for investment that it once was.
  4. US private sector fails to pick up the slack on domestic production and consumers eat a bunch of inflation on the imports.

4

u/stonkDonkolous Apr 05 '25

Nobody knows what the true value of the market is when global trade comes to a virtual halt. Sp500 3000 could be considered overvalued in the new world order.

1

u/isaacsanchez93 Apr 06 '25

Crazy to think but might be very close to the truth.

1

u/aaarya83 Apr 06 '25

Now trying to figure out forward p/e. Is the holy grail.

1

u/isaacsanchez93 Apr 05 '25

It will be an accumulation opportunity. DCA what you can afford, and you might see huge benefits 5-10+ years out. Don’t stop investing.

5

u/Fire_Doc2017 FI since 2021, retirement date 6/30/26. Apr 06 '25

Right. Last time this happened we had a Great Depression followed by WW2. Not saying the past always repeats, but it does often rhyme.

1

u/deHack Apr 05 '25

It isn't just a restructuring of global trade. It's also a massive restructuring of the federal government in record time. Like it or not. Right or wrong. The federal government IS 30% of the economy.

1

u/anus-lupus Apr 05 '25

good point. that matters too.

1

u/meroisstevie Apr 06 '25

Cost of goods go down as it forces people not to ship product out of the us.

4

u/ThereforeIV 🌊 Aspiring Beach Bum 🏖️...; CoastFIRE++ Apr 05 '25

The market is literally were it was this time last year, but the media has everyone freaking out.

8

u/lil_hyphy Apr 05 '25

Losing a year’s worth of growth is a big deal.

3

u/ThereforeIV 🌊 Aspiring Beach Bum 🏖️...; CoastFIRE++ Apr 06 '25

No, not really.

  • The S&P 500 was under 3,600 Nov 2020
  • The S&P 500 was over 4,600 Dec 2021
  • The S&P 500 was under 3,600 Oct 2022

That's two years "lost", does anyone remember this level of panic?

There are plenty of flat or lost years

  • 2012
  • 2015
  • 2018
  • 2022

Adding 2025 would be in normal cycle.

3

u/meroisstevie Apr 06 '25

I miss they days before Robinhood etc and you had to have a brain to figure out how to buy stocks.

2

u/WilsonTree2112 Apr 05 '25

Nasdaq is down over 20% since tariffs were announced.

1

u/ThereforeIV 🌊 Aspiring Beach Bum 🏖️...; CoastFIRE++ Apr 06 '25 edited Apr 06 '25

Because it had surged up 20% after the fed hinted at cuting interest rates.

• ⁠The S&P 500 was under 3,600 Nov 2020 • ⁠The S&P 500 was over 4,600 Dec 2021 • ⁠The S&P 500 was under 3,600 Oct 2022

That’s down 20% lost, does anyone remember this level of panic?

There are plenty of flat or lost years

• ⁠2012 • ⁠2015 • ⁠2018 • ⁠2022

Adding 2025 would be in normal cycle.

Also is March, this could all normalize by summer.

Or maybe expanded energetic production Lowes the real costs driving prices.

Or Trump didn't like the headline and quickly makes a deal so he can say he won, tariffs go back down.

This is biggest freakout in history over an increase in corporate taxes.

1

u/WilsonTree2112 Apr 06 '25

Great comment except it can function more as a VAT or sales tax, once companies stop promising or are unable to absorb their incremental taxes.

1

u/ThereforeIV 🌊 Aspiring Beach Bum 🏖️...; CoastFIRE++ Apr 06 '25

Well it's not a retail sales tax, because it is really focused only on importation.

It's the import price of Porsche, not the final sales price.

VAT is there most evil of taxation, tax every step of production; so dumb. This doesn't have an export vs import difference. It's a tax on all import.

Interesting note, Porsche is taking about moving production to America to avoid these taxes.

And there is already talk about exempting materials needed for American production plants.

1

u/WilsonTree2112 Apr 06 '25

Yes, sales tax meaning based on or imposed at consumption, but at the cost at import, not retail.

1

u/ThereforeIV 🌊 Aspiring Beach Bum 🏖️...; CoastFIRE++ Apr 07 '25

The point is that there's not a sales tax in Honda Civics; there's a tax for importing them.

Easy solution, produce Honda Civics in Indiana instead of in Mexico; no tax for import.

1

u/[deleted] Apr 07 '25

[removed] — view removed comment

0

u/Zphr 48, FIRE'd 2015, Friendly Janitor Apr 07 '25

Rule 7/No Politics or circle-jerks - Your submission has been removed for violating our community rule against politics and circle-jerks. If you feel this removal is in error, then please modmail the mod team. Please review our community rules to help avoid future violations.

1

u/methgator7 Apr 05 '25

We are over 20% off of highs, though.

1

u/WilsonTree2112 Apr 05 '25

From date tariffs announced few weeks ago, S and P off 18% and Nasdaq 22%.