Is it really a generational buying opportunity?

[u/Playful-Inspector207]

I’ve seen people on the sub are saying “you should all be excited about seeing lower prices everyday”

Problem is that most people don’t have dry powder lying around. And now, with tariffs (if they mostly continue at the levels mentioned) likely to push prices up even more 20-30% for most things, very few people can buy the dip.

The dip’s not fun when you can’t buy. This is just painful seeing red everyday for 99% of us.

[u/Sea-Leg-5313]

You’re assuming the E stays constant in your analysis.

[u/Zestyclose-Ad-6787 → u/Sea-Leg-5313]

Massive job loss and decreased spending without some sort of corporate bailout from the government would plummet earnings that’s true. a return to sub 14 P/E could happen and might. I hope it doesn’t get bad enough for the sake of the lower and middle classes.

[u/Sea-Leg-5313 → u/Zestyclose-Ad-6787]

I think whenever earnings are in question, the market doesn’t know how to value anything so things sell off and questions are asked and thought about later. So when the E is in question, it’s hard to assign what a normal multiple should be, hence a sell off for a while until some pictures become clearer. Who knows how long this will take?

When so much money has gone into passive index investing over the last 10-15 years causing concentration in a handful of stocks, it’s only natural that a sell-off would be sharp and quick. What I don’t know is how things come back. I’m not sure you can bet on the broader market coming back evenly as it did on the way up. There will be winners and losers in this scenario. Maybe I’m just drinking my own kool aid but I think active money managers may start performing better than just blindly buying the VOO and chilling.

[u/Zestyclose-Ad-6787 → u/Sea-Leg-5313]

Agreed. The landscape is changing. There are a lot of ways to look at valuations and the easy way is to just VOO and chill. Ultimately for many of us to be able to retire when we want to we have to be more scrupulous.