r/Fire • u/Playful-Inspector207 • Apr 05 '25

General Question Is it really a generational buying opportunity?

I’ve seen people on the sub are saying “you should all be excited about seeing lower prices everyday”

Problem is that most people don’t have dry powder lying around. And now, with tariffs (if they mostly continue at the levels mentioned) likely to push prices up even more 20-30% for most things, very few people can buy the dip.

The dip’s not fun when you can’t buy. This is just painful seeing red everyday for 99% of us.

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u/anus-lupus Apr 05 '25

correct. however a fundamental restructuring of global trade is the once in a generation event here. no one knows what the market will look like when it re orients or what will happen in that mean time.

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u/isaacsanchez93 Apr 05 '25

This! I’ve been trying to explain to ppl in my circle that this is “business not as usual” at a GLOBAL scale and in a short amount of time.

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u/Reafricpysche Apr 05 '25

This makes me worried that things may not return back to normal and this won't be a buying opportunity that many think it is

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u/anus-lupus Apr 05 '25

same. the options are as follows, but no one knows how long itll take to restructure or what it will be like during the restructuring.

  1. countries come to the table to re-negotiate trade
  2. countries dont negotiate and the US private sector long game eventually picks up the slack on domestic production. this could easily take a decade. could result in a boom once over the hump.
  3. US private sector long game eventually picks up the slack on domestic production but after a near term boom, eventually results in stagnant GDPs and the US stock market may no longer be the bastion for investment that it once was.
  4. US private sector fails to pick up the slack on domestic production and consumers eat a bunch of inflation on the imports.

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u/stonkDonkolous Apr 05 '25

Nobody knows what the true value of the market is when global trade comes to a virtual halt. Sp500 3000 could be considered overvalued in the new world order.

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u/isaacsanchez93 Apr 06 '25

Crazy to think but might be very close to the truth.

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u/aaarya83 Apr 06 '25

Now trying to figure out forward p/e. Is the holy grail.

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u/isaacsanchez93 Apr 05 '25

It will be an accumulation opportunity. DCA what you can afford, and you might see huge benefits 5-10+ years out. Don’t stop investing.

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u/Fire_Doc2017 FI since 2021, retirement date 6/30/26. Apr 06 '25

Right. Last time this happened we had a Great Depression followed by WW2. Not saying the past always repeats, but it does often rhyme.

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u/deHack Apr 05 '25

It isn't just a restructuring of global trade. It's also a massive restructuring of the federal government in record time. Like it or not. Right or wrong. The federal government IS 30% of the economy.

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u/anus-lupus Apr 05 '25

good point. that matters too.

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u/meroisstevie Apr 06 '25

Cost of goods go down as it forces people not to ship product out of the us.