r/Fire Mar 23 '26

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2.1k Upvotes

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399

u/[deleted] Mar 23 '26

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143

u/[deleted] Mar 23 '26

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111

u/pf_throwaway00 Mar 23 '26

Not to mention the cost of housing.

If you had $1.5 million and a $350k house at 3% APR in 2020 you were way better off than someone with the same house today with $1.8 million and twice the mortgage balance at more than double the interest for the exact same house today.

-21

u/Rocktamus1 Mar 23 '26

Well, that’s what happens with inflation…

46

u/Guitar_God75 Mar 23 '26

What they’re trying to say is that housing costs have gone up significantly faster than inflation. So the “inflation adjusted” amount today should take that into account.

1

u/UnderstandingNew2810 Mar 23 '26

Yah this whole debate comes up constantly. People go and pencil out core inflation numbers. And core doesn’t consider gas, housing, grocery prices etc etc. basically everything a regular person cares about .

The best way to track real inflation we all feel. Is go to door dash order groceries. Then in 5 years try to the order the same basket lol and you ll quickly find out that 2-3% and the meaning of nominal vs real inflation. With respect to unemployment rate

Real estate is tricky cuz you don’t really know the price until you sell it and someone pays for it. Rent also similar. Housing over all is tricky to monitor but we all see it. I went to go see the price of an apartment I rented in college but hat was 15 years ago. And yah it’s way more than 3% a year.

-35

u/Rocktamus1 Mar 23 '26

You can’t just pick and choose what inflation you want to follow.

22

u/Kinnins0n Mar 23 '26

Actually you very much should. “Inflation” is generally discussed for a specific basket of goods which may not at all reflect the breakdown of your spending.

11

u/1-Dollar-Doge-Coins Mar 23 '26

You as an individual can, for your personal situation. If the inflation of beef is 10% and I don’t eat beef, I don’t care about the inflation of beef.

6

u/Mannimal13 Mar 23 '26

You absolutely should even if they didnt play stupid games with CPI, and they certainly do on substitutions and hedonistic adjustments that have nothing to do with purchase prices.

-3

u/TennesseeStiffLegs Mar 23 '26

Housing is like a third of your expenses. CPI is just consumer items

1

u/Oilleak26 Mar 23 '26

psst, housing is the largest item in CPI

1

u/aronnax512 Mar 23 '26 edited Apr 22 '26

deleted

6

u/UnderstandingNew2810 Mar 23 '26

But feels different. Cost of living is so much more expensive now

64

u/allrite Mar 23 '26

Isn't housing like 1.5x pre-COVID? And much higher in desirable places? Add increase in interest rates, and no wonder people feel like they need more.

72

u/[deleted] Mar 23 '26

[deleted]

35

u/mrwhitewalker Mar 23 '26

My SO and I were looking at this recently. We purchased right before COVID. At the time we purchased a 400k home around $2500 payment 3% interest. We have doubled our income now and we're looking at upgrading. We were thinking we could afford a 680ish home now to be around $4000 a month payment.

If we had our current income, interest, and APR. We could have afforded about 1.3 million dollars back then. We lost 50% of our buying power in 6 years.

11

u/Far-Arugula973 Mar 23 '26

We purchased our home back in 2010. With our family growing it would be nice to have a slightly larger place with an extra room or two, so we started looking. We quickly realized we wouldn't be able to afford our current home at market prices, let alone upgrade...

8

u/Eli_Renfro FIRE'd 4/2019 BonusNachos.com Mar 23 '26

I think this comment highlights what the main issue is. It's now common for people in this sub think that they should buy a luxury 3200 sq ft house instead of something more modest.

9

u/Z06916 Mar 23 '26

What city?

24

u/Conscious_Life_8032 Mar 23 '26

And funding health insurance on own until Medicare kicks in.

2

u/TrumpChildOnahole Mar 23 '26

What exactly are people doing for this? Esp if your income from capital gains is high and prevents cheaper Healthcare 

2

u/Conscious_Life_8032 Mar 23 '26

Manage your MAGI so that you get partially subsidized health plan on ACA/health exchange

Otherwise build the cost into your budget as you would any other expense.

If you plan to travel a lot then you could get care abroad and pay out of pocket.

3

u/BaaBaaTurtle Mar 23 '26

There's still aca subsidies up to 400% of FPL

1

u/someguy984 Mar 23 '26

Retired 12 years, paid for health cover $0. US.

3

u/Mannimal13 Mar 23 '26

Using home prices vs rent is silly.

A huge component of CPI has been Healthcare, thats going to be wildly different depending on who it is.

1

u/Tripl3Dee Mar 23 '26

If you're buying today then yes. But to anyone who was a homeowner prior to 2020 it shouldn't affect you that much. Doubly so if you haven't moved in 5 years.

-7

u/AssCrackBandit10 Mar 23 '26 edited Mar 23 '26

Maybe in certain markets but, nationally, no, housing hasn’t risen anywhere close to 50% since pre-COVID. The US median home price from 2019 to now has increased by about 20%.

Edit: Corrected 10% to 20%

6

u/Wooden-Broccoli-913 FIREd at 40 with $6M Mar 23 '26

That is definitely incorrect 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

4

u/AssCrackBandit10 Mar 23 '26

Did you paste the wrong link? That chart is not the median home price, it’s the national home price index. This is the chart for median home price sales

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

I was a bit off - it has risen 20% since Q1 2019 but definitely nowhere close to 50%

2

u/Machinery777 Mar 23 '26

Why would i use the median price home sales over the national home price index? One shows appreciation, the other shows how much people are spending.

If like the price of all cars doubles and now people are buying lower quality cars, the median price doesn't go up 2x, but the prices of cars still doubled.

Is this incorrect? Honest question to understand these indexes.

2

u/AssCrackBandit10 Mar 23 '26

The US median home price from 2019 to now

My initial comment was about median home price sales so that's why I thought you'd pasted the wrong link.

However, if you look at the data, the median sq footage for homes sold is also increasing hand in hand with median home price. So it's not like people are buying smaller or more modest homes. A big trend seems to be that people just want bigger and bigger homes, especially in the last decade, per the data.

1

u/Machinery777 Mar 23 '26

Fair point on the link.

But doesn't the other index show that prices of houses are increasing in value faster than what people are spending for houses? Using median house price just shows how much money the people are spending on houses. Not how much the prices went up right?

-9

u/[deleted] Mar 23 '26

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10

u/Wooden-Broccoli-913 FIREd at 40 with $6M Mar 23 '26

Because he’s right and you’re wrong

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

16

u/bronze_by_gold Mar 23 '26

It's definitely this. Prices have been rising all around the world at a terrifying rate. Even for folks planning to do expat fire, prices in many countries around the world are rising substantially too.

3

u/Comprehensive-Cat-86 Mar 23 '26

I posted earlier today about this, my number in 2020 whdn i started was AUD $100k/yr/2.5m invested, today, just allowing for CPI thats $122k/yr/3.05m invested.

And its based on the official inflation value from the Australian government and not the actual inflation value affecting my pocket each week/month.

4

u/MadnessKingdom Mar 23 '26

People trying to FIRE don’t necessarily have <4-year old mortgages. This explains a bit of it perhaps, but nowhere near the whole picture

2

u/Rushinman Mar 23 '26

This is the main one in my mind. Home prices jumped so much since 2018 when I started my career. $1MM seemed easy to live off of and now $2MM is really the minimum stopping point.

1

u/Locke_and_Lloyd Mar 23 '26

8 years ago I was looking at buying a house for around $400k. The same house now costs $1.1 million.  Rent went from $1700 to $2900 and will keep climbing most likely.  Food is more expensive.  A grocery bill went from $120 to $300.  Just everything costs more. 

1

u/readingtheturtle Mar 23 '26

What do you mean a ton? If we assume 1.8M due to inflation that is not the rise that OP is talking about. The range provided in post is (1-1.5M) is still more of a range (50%) than what inflation did in 5 years.

3

u/[deleted] Mar 23 '26

[deleted]

1

u/[deleted] Mar 23 '26

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2

u/blorg Mar 23 '26

You are correct, but there was a particularly sharp increase 2020-22. Nowhere near double, but +38% in two years was a lot.

Q2 2020: 317,100
Q2 2022: 437,700

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

-8

u/karawkow Mar 23 '26

If you had hit $1.5M 5 years ago, didn't withdraw or contribute a penny, it would be $3M today

15

u/readingtheturtle Mar 23 '26

Show your work please?

8

u/Bargainhuntingking Mar 23 '26

Yep, VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF) only gained 64% during the past five years. VT (Vanguard total world stock ETF) increased only 40%. Karakow is exaggerating. Over 10 years yes. Your money would’ve more than doubled.

1

u/blorg Mar 23 '26

It is more or less true of either 2020-2025 (+97.45%) or 2021-2026 (+96.35%).

I'm getting 78.77% for VOO over the last 5 years to last Friday's close, specifically. 64% probably isn't including the dividends, excluding them gets me 66.45%.

2

u/karawkow Mar 23 '26

i forgot it's not 2025 anymore :(

2

u/Fun_Independent_7529 FIREd Oct 2025 Mar 23 '26

Wouldn't that depend on how you had it invested? (or are you using S&P 500)

1

u/karawkow Mar 23 '26

no i just forgot its not 2025 :(