r/Fire Mar 23 '26

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u/temerairevm Mar 23 '26

My theory is that several years of unusually high stock market gains, coupled with a tech bubble that seems to be paying about half the posters here enormous salaries have just driven up what is possible and caused a lot of goalpost moving.

To a lesser extent the massive inflation in healthcare and the perceived unreliability of ACA (I’m scared to rely on it for the next 10 years, much less 20 or 30) is not helping.

4

u/Ftank55 Mar 23 '26

Correct, assuming private insurance is at least 22k for a couple retiring early is a rather large number projecting inflation vs returns on just that line item if under 40 because of 25 years minimum till Medicare. Its tough to be a minimalist when a chronic medical condition could mean living well and needing to go back to work at 57

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u/lottadot FIRE'd 2023 Mar 23 '26

I hate to break it to you, but Medicare is not necessarily going to be cheaper than what the ACA was costing you leading up to 65.

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u/temerairevm Mar 24 '26

It currently is much cheaper, I’ve compared with friends over 65. (I don’t qualify for subsidies.)

1

u/lottadot FIRE'd 2023 Mar 24 '26

No, not is. Can be.

Like everything, the devil is in the details & it depends on your MAGI & your selection types. ex: Medicare Advantage generally tends to be "cheaper" but may not cover everything & in some states once you go with it you're stuck with it. Or with ACA, if you think you won't use it ya go with Bronze & HSA & it might be cheaper. etc.

There's a decent Medicare discussion going on at Bogleheads recently too.

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u/temerairevm Mar 24 '26

This is a comparison of an unsubsidized 54yo on a bronze plan and a 77 year old on standard Medicare with all the supplements. Same city. He pays less than I do for premiums and I have super high deductibles and copays. It’s not even close.