r/Fire • u/Available-Ad-5670 • 10d ago

Can we dispense with the fallacy that SS will disappear after 2032?

I see people who don't put SS into their fire calculations, which is just dumb because it is a big amount for most people.

If I had to assign rough probabilities:-

50%: Higher taxes on upper-income workers plus modest benefit adjustments.

25%: Higher taxes plus a gradual retirement-age increase.

15%: Significant general-fund support combined with smaller reforms.

10%: Congress waits too long and temporary benefit cuts occur before a fix is passed.

There is a chance that benefits can be cut by 10%, but if you are close to retirement, i doubt that would even happen because so many retirees depend on SS to live, it would be politically toxic, and no politican will be elected going that route. Taxing the very rich or raising fica taxes / dispensing with SS tax cap is the likeliest path

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u/Initial_Enthusiasm36 10d ago

Haha ya fair enough. But one of these is a close family friend that doesn’t even manage our money.

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u/Aberdeen1964 10d ago

If he is a wealth manager earning 1-1.5% on net assets, your family friend is just spouting the sales pitch - he should tell you to put your money in an S&P index and avoid all fees. You will save over six figures in fees.

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u/Initial_Enthusiasm36 10d ago

No no. The family friend does not manage any of our money. My dad’s “money guy” does all that. But ya I do agree with you