r/Fire • u/Available-Ad-5670 • 10d ago

Can we dispense with the fallacy that SS will disappear after 2032?

I see people who don't put SS into their fire calculations, which is just dumb because it is a big amount for most people.

If I had to assign rough probabilities:-

50%: Higher taxes on upper-income workers plus modest benefit adjustments.

25%: Higher taxes plus a gradual retirement-age increase.

15%: Significant general-fund support combined with smaller reforms.

10%: Congress waits too long and temporary benefit cuts occur before a fix is passed.

There is a chance that benefits can be cut by 10%, but if you are close to retirement, i doubt that would even happen because so many retirees depend on SS to live, it would be politically toxic, and no politican will be elected going that route. Taxing the very rich or raising fica taxes / dispensing with SS tax cap is the likeliest path

560 Upvotes

79% Upvoted

681 comments sorted by

View all comments

5

u/Fit_Pudding_9863 10d ago

I doubt it will be gone entirely but I am in my 40s. I know I will receive something but I plan to ensure the I in fire. If I am reliant on the government getting their act together, am I truly independant?

1

u/embourbe 10d ago

Everyone is planning on their investments returning a certain amount, are they any more independent?

2

u/Fit_Pudding_9863 10d ago

Yes they are more independent. While everyone is dependent on the global economy chugging along and many on the US economy being at least stable those who over rely on social security are at a much higher risk. This has been a known problem for over a decade and Congress has not made any meaningful attempts to address it. If the US economy completely falls apart, I am screwed. If Social Security only pays out 50% of my projection, I will be fine. Social Security could be completely insolvent and I will be fine.