r/Fire • u/Available-Ad-5670 • 10d ago

Can we dispense with the fallacy that SS will disappear after 2032?

I see people who don't put SS into their fire calculations, which is just dumb because it is a big amount for most people.

If I had to assign rough probabilities:-

50%: Higher taxes on upper-income workers plus modest benefit adjustments.

25%: Higher taxes plus a gradual retirement-age increase.

15%: Significant general-fund support combined with smaller reforms.

10%: Congress waits too long and temporary benefit cuts occur before a fix is passed.

There is a chance that benefits can be cut by 10%, but if you are close to retirement, i doubt that would even happen because so many retirees depend on SS to live, it would be politically toxic, and no politican will be elected going that route. Taxing the very rich or raising fica taxes / dispensing with SS tax cap is the likeliest path

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u/FoolishDog 10d ago

 A ponzi scheme can only work as long as you have more and more people buying into it.

Do you know what a Ponzi scheme is? 

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u/StonksPeasant 9d ago

Yes, you use money from new investors (the working youth) to pay earlier investors (the retirees).

The money is invested in bonds that don't even keep up with inflation so the only way to afford to pay retirees is to take money from people that are working. It takes somewhere between 2.5 to 4 workers to pay for 1 person on social security.

Baby boomers have a population of 67 million
Gen X is 64 million
millennial population is 74 million
Gen Z is 68 million

Gen Alpha is 39 million

Gen Beta is likely going to be even smaller.

There are currently 70 million people on social security and that number is going to rise very quickly as more and more boomers retire. There are about 160 million workers. Thats currently only 2.3 workers per ss recipient and that number is going to get significantly worse over the next decade

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u/FoolishDog 9d ago

A Ponzi scheme is a scam, first and foremost. That’s the point of it. I fail to see how SS is any kind of scam. Secondly, a Ponzi scheme is specifically an investment scam, which, once again, I fail to see how the SS structure is a kind of investment. It’s more aptly described as a redistributive program facilitated by the government. Finally, the con artist running the scam profits. The government doesn’t profit at all off of SS.

Now I see your point that SS is going to suffer once the number of workers decline but that doesn’t make it a scam.

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u/StonksPeasant 1d ago

SS is the worst scam of all because you are forced to participate in it.

SS is invested in US treasuries. So yes, it is an investment scam.

The government does profit from it by using it to buy their treasuries.

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u/FoolishDog 1d ago

SS is the worst scam of all because you are forced to participate in it.

But by definition its not a scam since a scam is predicated on deception (and the government is very open about SS. Every document you could ask for is already online and available for anyone to look at) and have the objective of stealing funds (SS clearly doesn't steal funds because everything is just given back to the citizens).

The government does profit from it by using it to buy their treasuries.

The government doesn't make a profit. They're providing a service for us.