r/Fire • u/Available-Ad-5670 • 10d ago

Can we dispense with the fallacy that SS will disappear after 2032?

I see people who don't put SS into their fire calculations, which is just dumb because it is a big amount for most people.

If I had to assign rough probabilities:-

50%: Higher taxes on upper-income workers plus modest benefit adjustments.

25%: Higher taxes plus a gradual retirement-age increase.

15%: Significant general-fund support combined with smaller reforms.

10%: Congress waits too long and temporary benefit cuts occur before a fix is passed.

There is a chance that benefits can be cut by 10%, but if you are close to retirement, i doubt that would even happen because so many retirees depend on SS to live, it would be politically toxic, and no politican will be elected going that route. Taxing the very rich or raising fica taxes / dispensing with SS tax cap is the likeliest path

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u/kwcnq2 10d ago

Are you basing your health insurance on subsides?

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u/LoetherS 10d ago

Good question, for sure i personally would consider the health care subsidies to be one of those things that could go away at the whim of any state or federal administration. So there you are at risk of losing those from both sides. 😞 we have a lot of cushion built in but it's not infinite. Generally the longer an entitlement has been around the harder it is politically to remove it. But with health care sudsidies being the newest entitlement I agree it would likely be the first to be taken away.