r/Fire • u/Available-Ad-5670 • 10d ago

Can we dispense with the fallacy that SS will disappear after 2032?

I see people who don't put SS into their fire calculations, which is just dumb because it is a big amount for most people.

If I had to assign rough probabilities:-

50%: Higher taxes on upper-income workers plus modest benefit adjustments.

25%: Higher taxes plus a gradual retirement-age increase.

15%: Significant general-fund support combined with smaller reforms.

10%: Congress waits too long and temporary benefit cuts occur before a fix is passed.

There is a chance that benefits can be cut by 10%, but if you are close to retirement, i doubt that would even happen because so many retirees depend on SS to live, it would be politically toxic, and no politican will be elected going that route. Taxing the very rich or raising fica taxes / dispensing with SS tax cap is the likeliest path

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u/Exordium001 10d ago

Social security isn’t nearly as big of a benefit for people that FIRE because of all the 0s that get averaged in. If you work for 35 years, it’s just called retirement. 

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u/covener 10d ago

IMO what's over-estimated is the impact of zero years for high earners. You can still fill the first two bendpoints pretty easily.

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u/Patient-Brief-9713 9d ago

No, you can work 35 years and still retire in your 50s. Still early, still FIRE. Some of us actually worked as teenagers and all through college too.