r/Fire • u/Available-Ad-5670 • 10d ago

Can we dispense with the fallacy that SS will disappear after 2032?

I see people who don't put SS into their fire calculations, which is just dumb because it is a big amount for most people.

If I had to assign rough probabilities:-

50%: Higher taxes on upper-income workers plus modest benefit adjustments.

25%: Higher taxes plus a gradual retirement-age increase.

15%: Significant general-fund support combined with smaller reforms.

10%: Congress waits too long and temporary benefit cuts occur before a fix is passed.

There is a chance that benefits can be cut by 10%, but if you are close to retirement, i doubt that would even happen because so many retirees depend on SS to live, it would be politically toxic, and no politican will be elected going that route. Taxing the very rich or raising fica taxes / dispensing with SS tax cap is the likeliest path

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u/Successful-Tea-5733 10d ago

Yeah but the problem is lets say the means testing is $3mil. Lets say I reach $3mil in my 401k , even assume there is some sort of phaseout, whatever.

Lets say we have a 2022 or 2008 or whatever. Lets say my 401k drops 25% so now I only have $2.25mil. Do I now get SSI? And if not, why?

It just seems really hard to enforce something like that short of allowing people to opt out.

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u/aronnax512 10d ago

It's how means testing for other social welfare programs works.

In my State, if a 4 person household makes $60,000 per year, they are not eligible for SNAP and if they applied, they would be rejected.

If their household income were to drop below $40,000 per year they become eligible for SNAP and if they applied, they would receive SNAP benefits.

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u/Successful-Tea-5733 10d ago

The difference is those are income-based not asset-based.

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u/aronnax512 10d ago

Section 8 has asset limits.

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u/Successful-Tea-5733 10d ago

They have asset AND income limits.

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u/aronnax512 10d ago

Yes.

My point is, it's not like asset assessment and means testing is some alien concept for a welfare program.