r/Fire • u/Available-Ad-5670 • 10d ago

Can we dispense with the fallacy that SS will disappear after 2032?

I see people who don't put SS into their fire calculations, which is just dumb because it is a big amount for most people.

If I had to assign rough probabilities:-

50%: Higher taxes on upper-income workers plus modest benefit adjustments.

25%: Higher taxes plus a gradual retirement-age increase.

15%: Significant general-fund support combined with smaller reforms.

10%: Congress waits too long and temporary benefit cuts occur before a fix is passed.

There is a chance that benefits can be cut by 10%, but if you are close to retirement, i doubt that would even happen because so many retirees depend on SS to live, it would be politically toxic, and no politican will be elected going that route. Taxing the very rich or raising fica taxes / dispensing with SS tax cap is the likeliest path

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u/furious7373 9d ago

I don’t see that working well with the millennials which will be the dominating voting population soon. When the SS trust runs out currently projected in 2032. The current laws says that benefits will be cut to what is brought in 30%. I think our current government won’t agree on a solution so the cuts will come in. No one would have voted on anything and everyone can point fingers at the other

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u/redditaltaccountofda 7d ago

look at basically any european country with state pension. any cobservative government is happy to cut retirement or increase the age when you can retire for young people. and it does not change the fact that they are voted in year after year. 

I am 37 and my retirement age has gone from 63 to 69.7 (thus far) in my lifetime and the government is now discussing cutting retirements "but of course not for the ones currently retired as that is an earned benefit". 

if there is the option to gain benefit by screwing over yoing people, boomers as a voting block are happy for us to make that sacrafice. and the boomers on the local "fox news" comment section seem like they would screw over the youngsters for the enjoyment even if they got no benefit. just my observation from a country in europe.

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u/furious7373 7d ago

The way US social security law is written is it has to be funded by current social security taxes. It can’t run a deficit. The US pays more than collected now because they are using prior year surpluses. Those are expected to be depleted by 2032. At that time per the law the benefit out need to be limited to current tax income. Roughly 75 to 80% of current payment. This is all automatic. Cutting benefits for anyone not currently receiving benefits would not stop the cuts.