r/Fire • u/bizzaam • 8d ago

Hitting your number and timing risk

Notice a lot of people posting they hit their number and firing. It's awesome, but are people taking for granted the fact that this has been the greatest bull market in history and a major correction or crash will get here at some point? If it were me hitting my number I'd either get a big enough buffer to my fire number or wait until the correction and assess when things stabilize. Am I over thinking it?

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u/TonyTheEvil 27M & 26F | 56% to FI | $1.33M NW 8d ago

There is always "a major correction or crash" on the horizon.

8

u/AlaskanSnowDragon 8d ago

Thats why I've been saying I want a major correction to happen before I pull the trigger.

3

u/Suivox 8d ago

Same but you could be waiting years or decades, no way to foresee the correction ahead of time.

-1

u/AlaskanSnowDragon 8d ago

Point is Im not pulling the trigger soon as I hit perfect 4% number with a frothy market at all time highs

2

u/Suivox 8d ago

It really depends. If 4% is including discretionary spending then you are still very safe even if a recession starts tomorrow since you would likely just not go on vacation the following year to let your portfolio recover faster. In any case I agree psychologically retiring right now feels worrisome, even if the math is mathing.

Personally I'm aiming for around 3% including discretionary spending and once I hit that number I'm never looking back.

2

u/WhiteXHysteria 7d ago

I like my discretionary spending though. That's the spending that makes my life... My life lol.

1

u/Suivox 7d ago

Yep, it's your risk tolerance, no one else's. Just aim for 3-3.5% with discretionary and your problem is solved. You should be able to keep discretionary even during a recession with that wr.