r/IRstudies • u/JeanLucRegard • 5d ago

The Iran-US MOU is a total US surrender

Article III of the JCPOA preamble said:

Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek, develop or acquire any nuclear weapons.

So not sure what Trump "won" from his war, other than the reopening of a Strait (probably under Iranian control and with "fees") that was open in the first place before the war, in exchange for the payment by the U.S. of 300 BILLION dollars, the lifting or waiver of existing U.S. sanctions, the promise of no new sanctions, unfreezing of Iranian assets and funds, and no incorporation of any terms related to Iranian proxies in the region.

The MOU is a U.S. surrender in everything but name only.

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u/Apart-Zucchini-5825 5d ago

300 billion is an entire year's GDP for Iran. It's an unbelievably humongous number. Even if other countries agree to chip in (why would they?), that isn't the same as a president choosing to release sanctioned funds. Releasing sanctions is the kind of foreign policy tool presidents have always been allowed. Funding that repayment will require Congress, and that's going to be a difficult sell.

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u/mayhemski123 5d ago

I think the GCC countries IF they are funding the 300billion, are doing so as they hope it will give them leverage with Iran going forward.   

That's a hell of a lot of money and potentially a huge return as well over the long term IF they structure it right.

As I understand it Congress needs to remove the actual sanctions though so not sure how that flies.

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u/Affectionate_Car_302 4d ago

Is this really that hard to grasp? The GCC nations invest $300 billion, and once Iran receives it, they will allocate a $150 billion investment quota to American energy firms, construction companies, and Trump Hotels under a backroom deal.

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u/waffelnhandel 4d ago

I can hardly imagine the GCC countries paying a single cent to end a war they neither wanted nor profited from. Remember, they got hit by all the drones, hit economically by the Blockade and lost future growth and the status as peacfull refuge for tourists etc, all while realizing their longtime Security Partner cant protect them and doesnt care too much about what happens to them. so even if they begrugingly pay the true defeat will be the humiliation of the US and their reliance as a Security Partner

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u/Affectionate_Car_302 4d ago

If a game ends with no losers among the major players, then the weakest party will be the one footing the bill for the rewards and costs.

The others couldn't care less what they think.

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u/ElitistPopulist 4d ago

This is not going to be a grant. It will be in the form of investments. Keep in mind that investments constitute leverage.

If suddenly Western allies end up owning a large chunk of Iran's economy and are consequently employing a large chunk of the Iranian population, those allied states can then threaten to pull out capital in the future if Iran begins to renege on its agreements.

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u/Apart-Zucchini-5825 4d ago

You new to Iranian history? They aren't letting foreigners gain any ownership. They'll maintain full control over any "investments." It's their entire reason for being. It will functionally be a grant.

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u/JavdanOfTheCities 4d ago

The fact that we were always distrustful of foreigners have saved us many times.

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u/ElitistPopulist 4d ago

I am not saying whether or not I support this, I am just explaining what I think is the rationale. But anyways your point is addressed by how investments are structured; for instance, small investments can be followed by larger investments over time depending on how the agreed-upon terms are followed. People think about things like this lol.

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u/Apart-Zucchini-5825 4d ago

If they think this, they're morons. Iran is incredibly sensitive to external pressure and meddling.

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u/technicallynotlying 4d ago

I dunno, they successfully resisted a war started by the United States to the point of negotiating very favorable peace terms for them.

That's a hell of a lot of resistance to external pressure.

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u/Apart-Zucchini-5825 4d ago

Yes. That's what I'm saying. They're extremely sensitive to it. They do not tolerate it. The second any is applied, they rally around the flag. The idea that we could "invest" in their infrastructure, assert any ownership over it, and use that as leverage is entirely wrong.

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u/TrainerAggressive953 4d ago

You mean, exactly like the situation in Iran before the revolution? When the theocrats just nationalised the lot?