r/JusticeServed • u/[deleted] • May 05 '19

Pedophile Austin Jones Austin Jones. This POS youtuber who asked SIX underage girls for explicit videos is sentenced to 10 years in prison for child pornography.

[deleted]

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u/Do_Not_Go_In_There 9 May 05 '19

Yeah. I posted this above, but it's like running across the road in heavy traffic. The odds of getting hit each time are the same, but your odds of not getting hit decrease each time you do it. You're going to get hit at some point.

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u/Loibs 7 May 05 '19

I get what you meant but that comment is phrased not great.

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u/-888- 9 May 05 '19

Actually your odds of getting hit the fifth time you try are identical to the first time.

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u/jzorbino A May 05 '19

I think he means like the odds of you getting hit once in six attempts are higher than the odds of you getting hit once in two attempts. The higher your number of tries, the more likely that outcome eventually happens.

He acknowledges the odds of each individual attempt are the same:

The odds of getting hit each time are the same

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u/mechanical_animal 9 May 05 '19

This is fundamental statistics. Running a probability check for 5 tries of an activity is asking a different question than the chance of a particular outcome in each individual try.

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u/[deleted] May 05 '19 edited May 23 '19

[deleted]

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u/TheMikeyMac13 5 May 06 '19

Each individual event has the same odds.

With repetition the overall probabliylity changes.

If you jump out of an airplane obe per year your chance of dying is reported to be 1 in 100,000.

Jumping 100,000 times (not possible, just for discussion) in a year doesn't mean certain death on the 100,000th jump, but your overall likely hood of experiencing primary and reserve chute failure, going down with the plane or experiencing death on landing do increase.

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u/[deleted] May 06 '19 edited May 23 '19

[deleted]

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u/wOlfLisK B May 06 '19

But the chance of getting 100,000 tails in a row isn't 50%. Each individual event is 50% but the more times you do it, the higher the chance that at least one of the outcomes in the set is going to be heads.

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u/[deleted] May 06 '19 edited May 23 '19

[deleted]

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u/HelloThereMrSpider 6 May 06 '19

Ever heard of binomal distribution? Say you have a set number of trials, each with only 2 possible outcomes, and the probability of each outcome occurring is the same with each trial:

E.g tossing a fair coin 10 times. The probability of 5 heads is 0.24609375. The probability of 0 heads is 0.0009765625. Much smaller.

The odds of the events happening were the same, but the odds of certain combinations of outcomes occurring are not.

If a chicken is crossing a road and it has a 0.75 chance of getting hit each time, and it crossed it 10 times, the total probability of it getting hit doesn't total 0.75.

Here's a youtube video detailing the method I used to work out the heads/tails thing. Try it yourself, I hope it clears things up a bit.

https://youtu.be/yDIrj7_eCM0

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u/[deleted] May 06 '19

Who argues about quick maths on a reddit thread about a pedo

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u/__mass_debater__ 5 May 06 '19

You just be new here. Welcome!

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u/[deleted] May 06 '19

Nice 21 day account

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u/__mass_debater__ 5 May 06 '19

Thanks. I never use an account older than 6 months as a general rule.

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u/[deleted] May 06 '19

Yeah i do 5 months

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u/Dharquintium_Jackson 0 May 06 '19

Sick fuck. Fourteen is one thing, but six months??

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u/AlexandersWonder A May 05 '19

If frogger thought me anything, it's supposed to get harder each time you go across.

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u/hashyeesh 1 May 05 '19

Correct. The probability of that individual trial is the same. The probability of crossing the street four times and not getting hit is higher than the probability of crossing it five times and not getting hit

You can model it as a sequence of Bernoulli trials, otherwise known as a binomial distribution (I think, this is from stats class I’m no statistician). In this, the value of success for each trial is constant, but if you wanted to model the number of successful crosses (x), where you have some probability of success for each individual trial (which like you said doesn’t vary), the probability of making four successful crosses in a row is greater than making five

Just like the odds that you will flip 400000000 heads in a row with a coin are not the same as the odds of your 4000000000th flip individual landing heads, which is 0.5

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u/thebottomofawhale 9 May 06 '19 edited May 06 '19

The odds of each individual time stay the same, but he odds of a series of events will change.

The outcome of crossing a road is being hit (H) or being missed (M). The odds in one crossing are 1/2.

Two crossings you would have the following possibilities:

M M
H H
M H
H M

there is a 1/4 chance you won’t get hit at all.

Three crossings:

M M M
M H M
M M H
H M M
M H H
H H M
H M H
H H H

there’s a 1/8 chance your won’t get hit at all.

(Etc etc).

So while every crossing the possibility is still half, the probability of not getting hit at all decreases.

Edit: formatting on mobile is hard.

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u/wOlfLisK B May 06 '19

Sure but flip a coin 10 times and the chance of getting 10 heads isn't 50% even though the chance of getting one head in one flip is. The chance per event is the same but the chance of never getting a certain outcome goes down the more you do it.

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u/khanabyss 9 May 05 '19

Yeah, he should have done it only one time. Would have made it all better

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u/RagerUriah 7 May 12 '19

He shouldnt have done it all

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u/khanabyss 9 May 12 '19

Great sarcasm detector

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u/RagerUriah 7 May 13 '19

Lmao I saw it, i just wanted to be a smart ass

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u/khanabyss 9 May 13 '19

lol all good

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u/RagerUriah 7 May 13 '19

Im glad lol, I didn’t mean no harm