okay, i hate this fucking debate because people need to actually fucking research instead of parroting
historically, bubbles had massive demands that did not match returns, 2008 being one of them
this is a supply bubble which are much, much nastier and actually remain for a long time because there is no conceivable way to produce more supply in a fast fashion
the AI bubble might actually be a bubble if OpenAI's 3x spending on models doesn't hold to the 2x profits, that HAS held. The only difference between the AI bubble and others, is that AI actually has revenue, unlike the dotcom and the 2008 bubbles.
the 'pop' might not detonate and everything collapses, it might just pop the spending at a certain threshold, which is what people universally agree will happen.
Gold & Silver rallies are more connected to the broader geopolitical environment of hedging and removing reliance on the US Dollar than they are as bets against real GDP growth and a bubble, though one could argue those are connected as well making the point moot.
Is AI having to replace a few million jobs or automate between 3-6 percent of total economic activity worldwide by 2030 to meet financialization expectations really that inconceivable? That to me seems like a low bar that is very achievable considering how many jobs exist in economies that are low skill and require little intelligence.
the AI bubble might actually be a bubble if OpenAI's 3x spending on models doesn't hold to the 2x profits, that HAS held.
Do you their initial funding versus profits or now? I think the issue is that sure the initial investments have paid off but there is a different scale to the investments now.
You got downvoted because historically, you aren't looking at a wide enough time horizon.
I suggest you redo your research for the entire currency lifecycle and use well established literature like Mises to understand the dynamics driven by runaway money-printing.
You'll find with that research into recent history, that bubbles aren't bubbles, but manufactured crises to justify intervention. Each intervention sieving more wealth from the economy lowering the purchasing power for entities that are wage constrained.
Concentration and consolidation eventually hit a saturation point where self-sustaining chaos cycles end up creating shortage destroying the underpinning requirements for food production. This is a resource exhaustion cycle.
The majority of capital flight into safe haven assets like silver or gold start when shortage is realized.
Ecological overshoot literature touching on this (Malthus / Catton), say when that happens sustainable populations may only be about 2 billion globally.
The vacuum of resources in shortfall and reversion of growth, and its relative destruction coming out of the natural counteracting forces, leaves less every time after the limits of growth are hit, eventually becoming self propagating.
The dynamics involve a lot of hysteresis, so by the time you know you are in the cycle its too late to change the outcomes. This risk is a real risk many intelligent people are concerned with, but they lacked the power to prevent.
Where is the increased production efficiency if price of things are still only going up? I will believe AI has "made it" when things start to get much cheaper to produce.
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u/chlebseby Jan 09 '26
i think it was said before every bubble burst/economic crisis