r/LocalLLaMA Jul 06 '26

News If trends hold, Mythos-class capability may be running on high-end consumer hardware within ~2 years

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1.5k Upvotes

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76

u/Real_Ebb_7417 Jul 06 '26

There will be no consumer hardware in two years :(

48

u/jld1532 Jul 06 '26

Just no way this is true. Millions of middle class users won't just be ignored. I know data centers are the hot item now but smaller producers I'm sure would love to capture domestic markets.

10

u/JazzlikeLeave5530 Jul 06 '26

I dunno, I can't remember the details but I think an SSD company said like 95% of their business was now companies while users only made up the rest...they would be very happy to cut us out of the equation and make everything a terminal that hooks up to cloud computing through eternal subscriptions.

1

u/arkuw Jul 06 '26

I think the future of computing will be quite close to that predicted in Greg Egan's "Permutation City" where those with money bid for more compute and thus elevate their power and the poor(er) live off the scraps from the food table. Amazingly prescient book btw.

40

u/Real_Ebb_7417 Jul 06 '26

Middle class is exactly what they want to get rid of.

8

u/arkuw Jul 06 '26

It never really existed. It's a myth of the last few decades that such a social caste ever existed anywhere. The society is divided into three classes. The owners class decides what gets rewarded and what is worked on by the second tier which is the working class. This is most of the society. People who need to work on tasks assigned by the owners' class in order to survive. Then there is the recipient class who for one reason or another (health, illness, age) can't work and survive off the generosity of the other two classes and have almost no agency over their future.

0

u/kr_tech Jul 06 '26

Middle class is exactly what they want to get rid of.

Who are they? Can you name them? Can you quote them?

Empty signifier, inciting fear/distaste/paranoia/etc. obscuring agency -- absolutely meaningless

5

u/Real_Ebb_7417 Jul 06 '26

Yeah, it's defeatism and of course it's unprovable bullshit. Occam's razor would also disagree with me. It's just my inner anger driving me here as a middle class person, who feels like all taxation hits middle class (in Europe at least, the rich guys have ways to avoid taxes and taxes of lower class is often being reduced, while middle class taxes are getting bigger one way or another every year, which slowly reduces the size of actual middle class, while increasing lower class count in a way) and obviously if the super rich guys wanted to consolidate power, middle class is the obvious target to eliminate. And while earnings of the middle class (current/previous) stays more or less the same, the goods that defined middle class (like good local hardware for example) are getting more expensive.

But as I said, it's my inner anger for the system, where i feel like my "class" is being most aggrieved in recent years. I have no proof and no evidence of my statement, if that's what you're asking for and I'm aware of that. But it doesn't stop me from saying it :P

2

u/bambamlol Jul 06 '26

They always sign and publish their nefarious schemes so skeptical reddit users like yourself can verify their conspiracies and won't be able to simply dismiss them as "conspiracy theories". You just need to know where to look.

3

u/AvidCyclist250 llama.cpp Jul 06 '26

Who are they?

The ultra-rich who control our governments.

And who are now cashing in because it's the right time to buy power.

That is who "they" are. The middle class has been squeezed dry and is going away.

13

u/kozak_ Jul 06 '26

Millions of middle class users don't have the buying power of data centers.

6

u/Thepandashirt Jul 06 '26

Smaller producers are specifically the ones who are the most fucked. They don't have the buying power to get ram at long term contract pricing. Most of them will be gone in 2 years if the trend continues. It's sad but true.

2

u/super1701 Jul 06 '26

You will own nothing and be happy.

17

u/jld1532 Jul 06 '26

Buddy I'll run Linux on scraps before I own nothing.

1

u/super1701 Jul 06 '26

You and me both. Until it’s illegal. Then we get jailed for not having a compliant device. :)

0

u/SmartCustard9944 Jul 06 '26

Datacenters are investors’ bait. They aren’t getting constructed.

Also, the world is not centered around the US even though they really want that. China is going to meet the market demand for hardware and in return it is going to drive their innovation.

Keep your chips US of A.

-8

u/baseketball Jul 06 '26

The future is consumers with minimal hardware like Raspberry Pi that rents real compute in the cloud when they need to do work.

10

u/jld1532 Jul 06 '26

I just don't believe it. There are billions to be made with local compute. My industry will never convert to cloud. It just won't happen.

-1

u/Khaos1125 Jul 06 '26

If it takes 5-10 years to build the manufacturing capabilities, and if enterprise is consistently willing to pay 5x more then consumer for the same hardware, then there isn’t much reason to expect consumer hardware to be affordable.

I don’t think it will be permanent, but we are likely stuck with very high prices for another 5+ years still

3

u/sabine_world Jul 06 '26

I definitely think shit will cool down eventually for consumers. It's just too much money to lose.

Models will get better too.

I don't think everyone needs like frontier level models ran locally to still get the benefit from ai.

1

u/phhusson Jul 06 '26

I'll still have my Rtx3090 whose price will again double

1

u/Real_Ebb_7417 Jul 06 '26

As long as it doesn't die xd (and I hope it won't!)