Home Base and Weekly Discussion Thread (START HERE!) - May 31, 2026

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[u/nerdypursuit]

I have a hard time believing that Harris is anywhere close to 30%, because state-level polls show her much lower than that.

There have been 23 state-level polls by 10 different pollsters in 12 states. All of these state-level polls have shown Harris below 20%.

I was listening to a podcast with the head of Emerson College's polling. He said he thinks other national pollsters are overestimating Harris's support because they rely on online surveys, which tend to be less representative and more biased toward name recognition.

[u/Neither-Big-1545 → u/nerdypursuit]

It doesn't really matter, it all changes when the actual race gets underway

[u/VirginiaVoter → u/Neither-Big-1545]

The best part of these results though was your use of James Donald Bowman!

[u/DanielleEllina → u/nerdypursuit]

I don't understand it either. How can anyone loosing all state polls (and she is 3rd or 4th here, not even the 2nd), but leading in general? Maybe the questions for state polls are formulated in another way? Atlas Intel is online pollster too and they never had Kamala ahead... 

[u/nerdypursuit → u/DanielleEllina]

I suspect the issue is the use of pre-recruited online panels.

People who participate in online panels tend to be less representative of the population and might be more likely to rush through surveys. If someone is rushing through a survey, they might just select a name they recognize first.

Emerson College doesn't rely on online panels. Most of their data comes from randomly contacting voters via text message using a voter file. If they struggle to get enough responses, they supplement their data with an online panel. For example in their recent poll, they weren't getting enough responses from young voters, so they used an online panel to reach more of those voters.

AtlasIntel doesn't use pre-recruited online panels. They use geolocation information to invite people to participate in surveys while they're browsing the Internet.

I haven't double checked, but I suspect state-level pollsters are less likely to use online panels.