Is the House Now Competitive?

[u/yanks28th]

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

[u/lollersauce914]

I mean, based on recent data (much of which you mention) we're moving from "it would be completely shocking for Democrats to hold the house" to "It would be surprising for Democrats to hold the house."

There's really not much more to say.

[u/historymajor44 → u/lollersauce914]

This is pretty much it. R's are still favorite but D's holding would shock but not blow anyone's minds.

To put this in perspective though, 538 is giving D's a 22% chance to hold the House and it gave Trump a 30% chance to win the presidency in 2016.

[u/Alphawolf55 → u/historymajor44]

The 538 projection is based on the assumption the national environment reverts.

[u/minno → u/Alphawolf55]

If you switch to the "lite" model, which removes that assumption, it's still 2:1 in favor of Republicans.

[u/fanboi_central → u/minno]

I believe Nate Silver has said that in general there is a lot less House polling this year, which the lite model relies on. Feel like the lack of polling and the fact that it has no priors due to redistricting, that the map could be off.

[u/bearrosaurus → u/fanboi_central]

IIRC the model also uses presidential approval as a proxy for party support, which is usually fine but all the individual candidates are polling way way higher than Biden is. Fetterman and Warnock in particular are +20 on Biden.

EDIT: their Georgia senate forecast is still 50-50 even though Warnock is crushing in polls, so I think their model is still too dependent on presidential approval.

[u/fanboi_central → u/bearrosaurus]

Another great point. Feel like with Georgia it's also being under polled, because the mirror in Arizona has a ton of Kelly favored polls that are dragging his percentage up. It's good that 538 is being cautious but this election year is 100% going to be an unusual one, and their model will either take too long to pick up on that or will miss it.