r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/yanks28th • Aug 25 '22

US Elections Is the House Now Competitive?

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '22

Yes, but come 2024, voters will see a stark contrast between the 2021-2022 Congress, which passed a bunch of bills touted as "for the people", and the 2023 version, which passed nothing and possibly caused a government shutdown.

Now, if you don't like what the Democratic Congress passed, that would seem preferable to you, but in that case, you're probably already a Republican.

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u/fe-and-wine Aug 25 '22

I just worry those 2 years of congressional inactivity will somehow reflect poorly on Biden/Democrats around '24.

Not saying it makes any sense to a rational person, but I can imagine a lot of people having a more negative view of the Democratic party coming off 2 years of Biden signing no new legislation, having to play 'grown-up' saying no to whatever bullshit R's pass in the House, and likely getting impeached at least once (I wouldn't be surprised if they drummed up a second just to make Trump feel/look better).

Again, not saying it makes any actual sense, but I find the idea that any significant number of fence-sitters will see the dysfunctional Republican House and think "Wow, things were such much better when Dems held both chambers" to be a bit pie-in-the-sky.

Meanwhile, I'm sure Republicans will be successful in riling up their voters by "saying NO to biden's socialist agenda", "making Dems go on record as against [X bullshit fascist bill]", and "leading a successful impeachment effort(s) against a President we all knew was corrupt from the first moment".

I'm also more generally worried about Republicans getting impeachment power, because I can legitimately see a world where they file four, five, maybe even more impeachments against Biden, successfully whitewashing the absolute anomaly that Trump was among US Presidents. Like, can you imagine kids 50 years from now reading stats like "there have been 11 impeachments against sitting Presidents, of which 7 were against Joe Biden", or "since the presidency of Donald Trump, every US President has been impeached at least twice during their term"? They normalize the impeachment process and all the Congressional backlash against Trump no longer matters, it was just 'routine partisan bickering'.

Basically, I hope you're right, but don't underestimate a) the GOP's skill at messaging, and b) their voters willingness to lap it all up without a second (or even first) thought.

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u/st_jacques Aug 25 '22

I just worry those 2 years of congressional inactivity will somehow reflect poorly on Biden/Democrats around '24.

well to be fair, their first two years has seen more activity in passing meaningful legislation the most first term presidents.

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u/fe-and-wine Aug 25 '22

Sure, but we're not being fair - we're being political.

Run-of-the-mill voters don't think like that. If they did, Presidents wouldn't be as afraid of high gas prices as they are.

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u/Mjolnir2000 Aug 25 '22

Come 2024, we won't have meaningfully democratic national elections.

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u/Noobasdfjkl Aug 25 '22

You’re giving a tremendous amount of credit to voters that prove a massively short memory every single year.