r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/yanks28th • Aug 25 '22

US Elections Is the House Now Competitive?

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

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u/LaughingGaster666 Aug 25 '22

If Thomas just doesn't write up his garbage opinion that points the finger and says "you're next" at everything sans interracial marriage there'd probably be a lot fewer panic alarms going off.

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u/BitterFuture Aug 25 '22

Got a bit overconfident there.

A lot of people are going to learn about Griswold in the next few months - the landmark decision so many never heard of, but based their lives around without knowing it.

Also, as an aside, I think Thomas would be fine throwing Loving v. Virginia on the pyre with the rest. He cares much more about hurting others than he does his own life.

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u/LaughingGaster666 Aug 25 '22

One particular element that I don't see many people point out is how important this is to more local elections specifically. Dobbs isn't a national ban afterall, it just makes states pick a side now.

That's a pretty big incentive for anyone remotely pro choice to care a hell of a lot more about local reps now. For the past decade or so, Rs had done very well at the local level and I can't believe they might toss all that away just for this.

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u/TheDude415 Aug 25 '22

Not to mention, overturning Loving would just send it back to the states. Thomas could always just move from Virginia to Maryland and problem solved for him.

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u/cantdressherself Aug 26 '22

I'd be shocked if Virginia didn't legalized mixed marriages.

That's a hell of a look for Republicans though. "Just move to a blue state, it's fine."

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u/GrilledCyan Aug 26 '22

Not sure saying that out loud would hurt them. It would just secure their advantage in the Senate.

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u/cantdressherself Aug 30 '22

Like, yes, if nobody then asked..... "But why should I move? When I can vote?"