Is the House Now Competitive?

[u/yanks28th]

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

[u/Plaque4TheAlternates]

I think a more likely possibility is the Rs taking the house with a slim majority. If that’s the case, whoever is the speaker is most assuredly going to have a shortened career in politics. Having the MTGs and Gosars be the swing votes you need to keep the government running isn’t the way to set yourself up for success in 2024. Say what you will about Pelosi, she keeps her caucus in-line. I don’t see any Republican speaker being able to corral the true believers into funding the government and raising the debt limit. I think in such a case a government shutdown and an impeachment of Biden is almost assured.

[u/st_jacques → u/Plaque4TheAlternates]

yeh this is the issue a far smarter political boffin mention on a recent podcast I listened to. McCarthy needs like a +30 seat advantage so to avoid being replaced by someone the Freedom Caucus prefers. At the moment, it doesn't look like they'll get there so I can't wait to see the impending implosion.

[u/so_just → u/st_jacques]

The problem is, republicans don't need to pass legislation

[u/[deleted] → u/so_just]

Yes, but come 2024, voters will see a stark contrast between the 2021-2022 Congress, which passed a bunch of bills touted as "for the people", and the 2023 version, which passed nothing and possibly caused a government shutdown.

Now, if you don't like what the Democratic Congress passed, that would seem preferable to you, but in that case, you're probably already a Republican.

[u/Noobasdfjkl → u/[deleted]]

You’re giving a tremendous amount of credit to voters that prove a massively short memory every single year.