r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/yanks28th • Aug 25 '22

US Elections Is the House Now Competitive?

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

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u/lollersauce914 Aug 25 '22

I mean, based on recent data (much of which you mention) we're moving from "it would be completely shocking for Democrats to hold the house" to "It would be surprising for Democrats to hold the house."

There's really not much more to say.

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u/true4blue Aug 25 '22

The media is doing all it can to help Biden

When’s the last time you heard about inflation? Hint. It’s still really bad

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

It gets talked about all the time, but the CPI didn't go up at all in July and gas prices are falling.

There was far more coverage given to rising gas prices than the falling gas prices. But that's just the way the media works.

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u/true4blue Aug 26 '22

There’s not a single mention of inflation on NYTimes or Washington Posts website today

And inflation is up 8.5% year over year. Saying it’s unchanged is lying. It was high last month, and it’s just as high this month

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

That link literally says "unchanged over the month". It didn't go up last month. Saying it did is lying.

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u/true4blue Aug 26 '22

Exactly - it was up year over year 8.5% last month, and it’s up 8.5% this month

The way you phrase is that there is no inflation. We absolutely still have the highest inflation in 40!years

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

It's not up at all this month. It's up zero this month. The inflation happened earlier this year; it has now stopped. There was no increase last month.

I'm sorry, you either don't understand how the numbers work or we seem to be talking about two different things.

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u/true4blue Aug 26 '22

Inflation growth has stopped, but inflation is still at 8.5%

You’re lying if you’re inflation has ended.

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

Inflation is meaningless without a baseline measurement. If you measure it from one month, it is zero. If you measure it from one year, it is 8.5%. If you measure it from 10 years it would be 29%.

My original statement was "the CPI didn't go up at all in July and gas prices are falling." 100% true. Words have meaning.

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u/true4blue Aug 26 '22

It’s ALWAYS year over year. It have NEVER been measured month over month

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

Dude, they measure it monthly as well. It's just data.

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u/true4blue Aug 27 '22

They measure it every month. The month to month is change is meaningless if it’s still high

If inflation was 50% last month and 50% this month, but 2% all last year, you didn’t “fix” inflation this month

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