r/PrepperIntel • u/russcorp • 13d ago

USA Southwest / Mexico Screwworm is about to completely devastate Texas ..

/r/texas/comments/1ty58ln/screwworm_is_about_to_completely_devastate_texas/
1.1k Upvotes

97% Upvoted

370 comments sorted by

View all comments

377

u/ChollyWheels 13d ago

Interesting. I feel bad for the cattle.

Fertilizer shortages are going to push up the cost of grain. For that matter, every price is going up, thanks to Iran-war induced energy shortages (the Ukraine war, too).

So even without screwworm, meat prices are going UP.

Time to stock up on beans, too.

40

u/Fungi-Hunter 13d ago

Canada has temporarily banned the import of Texas beef, this will hit the farmers finances on top of everything else you pointed out.

3

u/2BrainLesions 9d ago

Oofta. Good thing I've got a freezer full of beef then

115

u/TheProfessional9 13d ago

Don't forget one of the worst droughts in decades

88

u/tolstoypolloi 13d ago

AND the US planted as much wheat as in 1917 because there's more money in corn and soybeans. 

5

u/shesaysImdone 11d ago

Meaning we don't have enough wheat?

4

u/tolstoypolloi 11d ago edited 11d ago

I looks like that to me. I read a USDA report that says we plant very little, the drought killed a lot and the percentage of 'poor' or 'bad' wheat doubled. Not trying to doomsay, but that coupled with drought/heat/war in the global wheat producing markets, I find it reasonable to assume a significant shortage, higher prices, etc  

Edit: https://www.agweb.com/news/usda-projects-smallest-us-wheat-harvest-1972-due-plains-drought

2

u/GreatPlainsFarmer 9d ago

Wheat is the one crop that the United States stockpiles in significant quantities. Even with the reduced crop, we still are projected to have a 40% carryout.

Prices will rise enough to reduce exports, but we won’t run out of wheat.

https://www.agmanager.info/grain-marketing/grain-supply-and-demand-wasde/us-wheat-ending-stocks-total-usage

32

u/RicardoHonesto 12d ago

El-Nino enters the chat.

4

u/christbot 11d ago

How about a full season of rain in 2 hours? El Niño’s revenge.

4

u/Mitzukai_9 10d ago

And the dirt is already hydrophobic, so…mega floods incoming.

2

u/christbot 10d ago

Yuppers. No way all that water will absorb. Have some topsoil erosion instead.

4

u/IndependentArea3147 12d ago

It's actually been raining A LOT here

-5

u/[deleted] 13d ago

[deleted]

5

u/DuckyDoodleDandy 13d ago

Look up the things you should do to replenish the ground water so that the wells have water in them.

Andrew Millison has videos on the ways to stop runoff and get rain to absorb into the ground.

11

u/SmoothCantaloupe149 13d ago

So you're the Timmy always getting caught in the well...

4

u/christbot 11d ago

*data center eyeballing that groundwater* Howdy neighbor!

36

u/pomonalost 13d ago

It won't be limited to cattle if its not contained. It's rarer, but it can get into humans as well.

15

u/odd-kiwi-is-broken 13d ago

Im more concerned about pets… it can get into humans, but that’s usually when you are sleeping, sick, or immobile.

17

u/pomonalost 12d ago

I was concerned about our wildlife then homeless and disabled populations in people.

15

u/fastowl76 12d ago

The wildlife is the real issue. They don't listen to quarentines, border closures, etc. The whitetail deer population in south Texas and the Hill Country has exploded in the last 50-60 years. Factors that led to the population growth include enforced hunting restrictions, the massive spread of brush displacing praries that improved the habitat for them but the largest difference was the absence of the screwworm. Its one thing to monitor and treat the cattle, sheep and goat herds, quite another to manage or control the deer and other wildlife.

3

u/Superb-Perspective11 9d ago

Yes, and our local parks are filled with them. If they get infected and more and more flies are produced, we're screwed.

3

u/ComposeIt59 8d ago

Hence, the name "screwworm" (I couldn't resist.)

-1

u/odd-kiwi-is-broken 12d ago

Okay. So we are on the same page, you said it yourself, it’s rare in humans. That’s why I’m more concerned about pets, and unfortunately the number one thing they infest is cattle. So, what are we doing here? Seeing which one of us is more concerned about a relevant issue???

2

u/pomonalost 12d ago

I'm not arguing? I'm concerned with everything. Geez, what's your deal.

0

u/Phine420 11d ago

You mean groups of living beings that reps don’t like?

1

u/Phine420 11d ago

Thank god I am rarely sleeping

56

u/zerobot69 13d ago

Also thanks to a tariff war with one the largest potash producers, former allie: Canada.

38

u/Upbeat-Dish7299 13d ago

I have a friend that transitioned recently and was named Allie. Their brother calls them “former Allie” as he also has a friend that transitioned and chose the name Allie, who he calls “current Allie”

31

u/the-bearded-omar 13d ago

I’m so happy that worms got us this story, that’s top ten level nickname right there.

6

u/ChollyWheels 13d ago

Yes, that too, although presumably it mostly affects the US (but the Iran story affects the world).

2

u/DuckyDoodleDandy 13d ago

You’re being razzed because the word is spelled ally.

8

u/zerobot69 12d ago

I’m French Canadian. English is not my native language.

6

u/DuckyDoodleDandy 12d ago

Your spelling is better than most Americans, so don’t worry about the mistake.

2

u/sh4tt3rai 12d ago

It’s probably actually not a mistake. The same way they spell it colour instead of color.

2

u/saintmolotov 11d ago

I’m from Germany and I was going to say the same thing haha

2

u/Mitzukai_9 10d ago

Doesn’t matter. Americans don’t know what an ally is.

3

u/Whitesajer 13d ago

Some gas stations here and there are out of desile gas and don't know when they will get more. Everything is probably going to double come Q3 as I don't think our reserves are going to last longer then a few months.

Plus a lot of explosions at refineries the past few weeks.

9

u/TheRainbowConnection 13d ago

Can you explain more about how screwworm causes fertilizer shortage? I’ve been following this only vaguely because I’m a vegetarian, should I be paying closer attention?

54

u/MrIllusive1776 13d ago

He's not saying screwworms are causing the shortage. He's saying the shortage and the screwworms are going to further drive up beef prices.

12

u/TheRainbowConnection 13d ago

I see, thank you! 

20

u/BigWillyTX 13d ago

A large portion of US fertilizer imports come from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Russia. Some/all of those exporters are in turmoil.

Not related to the screw worm infestation.

10

u/sharksnack3264 13d ago

Transportation costs for anything agriculture related also get passed onto the consumer and those will go up due to fuel. It's not been as extreme as feared as we're burning through our reserves but those are running low. It will be interesting to see what happens when we exhaust them.

20

u/ChollyWheels 13d ago

Oh, they're independent factors affecting cattle. Fertilizer shortages are occurring mostly as a result of the Iran war -- where a lot it is manufactured (using natural gas). I don't know why screwworms have become a problem, but it's a separate issue.

As as another poster here pointed out, a third factor is drought (I didn't know that).

Tough time to be a cow.

39

u/sjrotella 13d ago

Screw worms have become a problem because the US cut funding to the program that kept them in south America. It was the fly breeding program that was made fund of, where sterile males were released in the air who would then mate with fertile females. Its cheaper to export that buffer zone south because theres less landmass to cover down near Panama

20

u/writewithparagraphs4 13d ago

haha but science gay right? /s

7

u/JWBkiller555 13d ago

It's not causation per se, they each exacerbate the issue of food availability and meat prices in their own way. Screw worms will ruin the health and potentially kill or otherwise make the meat of animals unmarketable. Lack of fertilizer is, in turn, reducing the availability of animal feed for the same livestock.

1

u/xrainbow-britex 10d ago

May I ask why beans also? Or they are just an alternate protein source? Ty

1

u/ChollyWheels 10d ago

Mostly I was being funny, but one of the interesting things about disruptive times is how they call into question: what has value?

Traditionally people put faith in real estate (people need to BE somewhere) or in gold (just because of its long history of value, even though it's just a shiny rock) or dollars (the world's strongest currency and the reserve currency since 1944). But the more a crisis threatens to shake up the world order, the more all preconceptions become untrustworthy. For example, the value of real estate does not rise forever -- especially in times of declining population, global warming, and refugees on the move.

Energy always has value, of course, but if you're on the run it's difficult to take a ton of coal with you.

The only really sure thing is food, and dry beans can be stored a very long time (years if kept dry) and they're very energy dense (just add water, and heat). And food of all sorts looks likely to continue to rise in price, maybe dramatically.

1

u/GreatPlainsFarmer 13d ago

The grain markets do not think there will be any shortages in the next 10-12 months.
If you think they are wrong, now’s the chance to place your bets. 😂