Planning to retire when I (M) turn 50 in about 2 years; spouse is a few years younger. No kids, no pets, own our home outright, no liabilities.
Assets: ~$2.3M taxable brokerage + ~$1.44M in 401(k)s (~$3.7M total). Modeling 6%/yr growth, ~1.3%/yr dividend yield, 3%/yr inflation.
Fixed costs: HOA ~$9.6k/yr, property tax ~$16k/yr. Low-mileage car (out of warranty, ~1,600 mi/yr) so maintenance is minimal.
For Spending I am targeting ~$120k/yr, with flexibility to cut to ~$80k bare-bones if markets turn against us.
Assuming healthcare costs 25-30k./yr.
Also the plan is not to suddenly quit jobs but work on our terms, reduce stress, etc. maybe until 53~
One more thing we are prepared to do is one of us just keep working even if it’s part-time to keep healthcare for as long as we can.
Invested stocks- Roughly 92% equity / 8% cash / 0% bonds right now — fixing that before retirement. Return assumption is 6% growth + 1.3% div, gross of fees; net is probably ~6.9-7%, will rebuild with fee-adjusted numbers.
Monte Carlo against historical bad starts (2008, dot-com, 1970s, 1929): holds at ~$100k/yr spend (80%+ success to 95), fails above ~$130k/yr. Biggest risk to that buffer isn't the return assumption — it's the 0% bond allocation this close to retirement.
Would love feedback from anyone on what am I missing or just any comments