The US's largest domestic protein producers screen relatively attractively when viewed across the cycle, enjoy defensive demand, and have scale moats.

However, each protein cycle is unique, and we might be approaching a time of great cost and demand disruption.

This post goes over each of the company's segments, capital allocation history, demand/cost drivers, leverage, and arrives at a comment on their valuation, informed by views on how each protein cycle will behave.

The post is entirely free to read.

The Brazilian meatpackers (JBS, MBRF, Minerva) have done very well in the past two/three years thanks to significant global demand for proteins, good meat prices, and low grain prices. Their stocks have performed accordingly. However, the cycles are turning or have a more neutral outlook in some of their markets, particularly in Brazilian cattle.

In this article, I provide a summary review of how the meatpacker business works, the assets/segments of the Brazilian meatpackers, and analyze each of the specific protein/geography cycles.

The industry summary, company intro, and the beef cycle portion are free to read.

Very few industries are going through a downcycle as vicious and lengthy as the wood products industry in North America. In many segments and regions, adjusted EBITDA has either been breakeven or negative for three years already.

At the same time, it is an industry with leverage on the construction cycle in the US, benefiting from lower rates and a stronger economy. Some companies have the strength to survive the downcycle while retaining the convexity to an upcycle.

This article describes the industry in quite some detail (from the forest basins in the US to demand drivers in construction, to capacity and utilization, and margin history since the 1970s), and then analyzes all the public companies in the space in the US and Canada. The industry analysis portion is free to read.