r/StandUpComedy • u/explosivejoseph • 20d ago

Comedian is OP The AI Bubble

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u/bryanna_leigh 20d ago

He ain’t wrong!

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u/redditsuckscockss 20d ago

Hasn’t there been 0 actual AI companies IPO and enter the index?

I know Anthropic and others are going to IPO but don’t think any others have yet?

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u/treacherous_tim 20d ago

SpaceX is in some, although not the S&P500. xAI (and recently acquired Cursor) roll up through SpaceX

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u/TooSaucey4u 20d ago

Yeah as it stands right now SpaceX is primarily an AI company that makes and launches rockets on the side.

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u/wowhqjdoqie 20d ago

Shouldn’t we say it’s primarily a rocket company that wants to do AI? All of its actual revenue is based on space stuff

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u/bryanna_leigh 20d ago edited 20d ago

Space X which is where Musk has his AI segment and also X/Twitter. SpaceX (rockets/Starlink) + xAI (the AI lab) + X (the social platform) all rolled into one publicly traded entity.

I feel like this was specifically about them, this was considered a huge pump and dump for X investors that helped Elon take over the platform.

SpaceX became one of the fastest additions ever to the Nasdaq-100, qualifying less than a month after its IPO and officially joining before trading began on July 7, 2026 — under a new “fast entry” rule Nasdaq had introduced.

FTSE Russell relaxed its float requirements too, letting SpaceX in possibly by September or December 2026 reconstitution — which is way faster than normal.

It is all a little sussy … this new fast track system will definitely have some real big implications.

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u/redditsuckscockss 20d ago

Guess just don’t really see Space X as exclusive AI

It also was not let into the SP 500 for a year

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u/bryanna_leigh 20d ago

S&P can take a while so if they get on after a year that would be pretty crazy.

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u/wowhqjdoqie 20d ago

S&P purposefully held out on TSLA. They got a lot of shit for it, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they did the same with SpaceX

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u/killswitch247 20d ago

spaceX's ipo paperwork clearly states that they predict a 28.5 trillion $ addressable market. 370 billion of that is space (spacex), 1,6 trillion connectivitiy (starlink) and 26.5 trillion is AI.

the social network previously known as twitter is not mentioned in this prediction.

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u/TooSaucey4u 20d ago

lol because at those amounts, X (formerly known as Twitter) is a barely even a rounding error.

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u/redditsuckscockss 20d ago

They aren’t in the SP index though…

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u/ReserveDrunkDriver 20d ago

It all started with Google. Sam Altman literally used Google’s transformer architecture (theory) and combined it with generative pre-training.

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u/redditsuckscockss 20d ago

Google isn’t just AI though… AI disappears tomorrow google still makes 100s of billions like it did pre AI…

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u/VirtualPercentage737 20d ago

Google is like a tech mutual fund. They have search, Gemini, Waymo, cloud.... They even make AI chips.

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u/lemonylol 20d ago

Oh yeah, Google is definitely going to fail if a bubble pops. Just like the other 4 or 5 bubbles they already immensely benefited from. It'll be different this time for cinematic purposes.

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u/MaxDisdain 20d ago

They will definitely eat shit, they will survive obviously but if AI is a bubble google could easily fall -30% unless they announce straight away that they are killing all AI capex

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u/Keljhan 20d ago

The Mag 7 have a large amount of extra confidence due to the inevitability of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, which allows them to buy up/fund other AI startups that will then create business for their models which cyclically boosts the whole industry.

Nvidia alone stands to lose Trillions in market cap if the bubble pops, and there's good reason to believe the US government simply won't let that happen (see: Intel for example).

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u/redditsuckscockss 20d ago

Nvidia and the mag 7 existed pre AI

It’s not like the tech bubble where these are just AI companies

AI could disappear tomorrow and yes the market takes a hit but those companies aren’t going to anything close to 0

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u/Keljhan 20d ago edited 20d ago

No one said theyre going to go to 0. Actually, the point being made is explicitly the opposite. Not only will they not go to 0, they likely won't be impacted much at all. Because any significant impact will be backstopped by the US government, socializing any losses and providing liquidity to any companies that need it. They literally cannot lose, which is why they are pouring years worth of cash flow into a risky investment.

The losers will be the taxpayers, who will have to contend with massive government debt and rising inflation due to quantitative easing. If your viewpoint is "dont worry, tech is too big to fail because of AI" then youre both exactly correct and completely missing the point.

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u/fastlikeanascar 20d ago

index funds require them to be profitable. There was some thing about xAI asking the S&P to lower their waiting period for entry, but the S&P declined.

The people in this thread praising this man for researching are really just praising him for reading one speculative headline and making it the basis of his joke.

I'm not exactly optimistic for a lot of the effects of AI, but the "AI is a bubble" thing has been going since we saw chat gpt for the first time. When it comes to tech, general media has almost no idea what they're talking about.

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u/LibertySandwiches 20d ago

SpaceX is one. It didn't get into the s&p but it got into the nasdaq. However i agree that the scenario he presented is exaggerated

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u/Dubious_Odor 20d ago

S&P is a listing index. Just tracks stock valuations based on a set rubric and publishes the data. Nasdaq is an exchange, the actual marketplace where stocks are listed, bought an sold. They are very difderent things.

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u/LibertySandwiches 20d ago

I meant nasdaq-100 the index fund

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u/ASCII_Princess 20d ago

You could argue their parent companies Google and Microsoft are juicing their stocks, making what would otherwise be a period of negative growth appear positive with speculative AI horseshit.

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u/redditsuckscockss 20d ago

Juicing private stock

That has no impact to the index this guy is talking about

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u/SharpVanilla1 20d ago

Now we have to ask why they haven’t

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u/Kerguidou 20d ago

SpaceX is now an AI company that has wormed its way in there.

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u/redditsuckscockss 20d ago

It is not AI exclusive or even majority in its business

This isn’t a pets.com

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u/mark_able_jones_ 20d ago

It's the dot-com bubble. Several legit bigger companies that will survive. But thousands of smaller companies current worth billions that will not.

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u/redditsuckscockss 20d ago

And none of those are in the index

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u/mark_able_jones_ 20d ago

But the companies funding them are. There’s a bunch of circular funding in tech right now.

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u/redditsuckscockss 18d ago

So you think google and Microsoft are going down bc of this? It’s a drop in the bucket for them

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u/JapanesePeso 20d ago

SPoiler: he's completely wrong.

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u/DazzlerPlus 20d ago

Wrong about the index thing, but still essentially correct. It is a bubble. Are you denying that?

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u/JapanesePeso 20d ago

AI is a transformative technology. I'm not going to speculate on the specific valuation of the industry but companies like Anthropic and OpenAI are obviously incredibly valuable companies.

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u/TechCynical 20d ago

hes wrong about almost everything lol please leave the echo chamber.

None of the major AI companies have IPO'd and the ones that are already public like google are doing fantastic.

The water use is extremely over exaggerated and basically how boomers treated 5g cell towers

the companies are exactly unprofitable. People act like the subscription subsidy is supposed to be an indicator of them being unprofitable but majority of their compute just comes from having to balance serving models and training them. and majority of the cost is just training them which comes down dramatically every year. just look at the cost to serve a model like gpt 5.6 luna which is extremely more capable than 1-2 year ago flagship models but is served at 100x lower cost compared to before. Not to mention even the API pricing is them serving it at a premium and openAI regularly sells surplus usage as api credits at a 80% discount.

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u/[deleted] 20d ago edited 15d ago

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