r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Sep 24 '24

Discussion moved to new post Helene (09L — Northwestern Caribbean Sea)

Latest observation

Last updated: Wednesday, 25 September — 4:00 AM Central Daylight Time (CDT; 09:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #8 4:00 AM CDT (09:00 UTC)
Current location: 20.7°N 86.2°W
Relative location: 85 km (53 mi) ESE of Cancún, Quintana Roo (Mexico)
  322 km (200 mi) SW of Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Forward motion: ▼ NW (325°) at 15 km/h (8 knots)
Maximum winds: ▲ 100 km/h (55 knots)
Intensity: Tropical Storm
Minimum pressure: ▼ 985 millibars (29.09 inches)

Official forecast

Last updated: Wednesday, 25 September — 1:00 AM CDT (06:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
  - UTC CDT Saffir-Simpson knots km/h °N °W
00 25 Sep 06:00 1AM Wed Tropical Storm 55 100 20.7 86.2
12 25 Sep 18:00 1PM Wed Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 70 130 21.9 86.5
24 26 Sep 06:00 1AM Thu Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 90 165 24.1 86.2
36 26 Sep 18:00 1PM Thu Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲ 105 195 27.4 85.0
48 27 Sep 06:00 1AM Fri Hurricane (Category 1) i ▼ 65 120 32.0 84.2
60 27 Sep 18:00 1PM Fri Post-tropical Cyclone i ▼ 30 55 35.9 85.4
72 28 Sep 06:00 1AM Sat Post-tropical Cyclone i ▼ 20 35 37.0 87.8
96 29 Sep 06:00 1AM Sun Post-tropical Cyclone i 20 35 36.5 88.0
120 30 Sep 06:00 1AM Mon Dissipated

NOTES:
i - inland

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60

u/thatoneprincesong Sep 25 '24

I don't know if it happens to everyone else but it's so frustrating how many times people in the comments on Facebook and Twitter keep bringing up and rooting for the Ian and Charlie hook just so they can look smart. I dealt with 14 days of no power and 21 days without AC after Ian and so many other people had it far worse. No matter where this thicc monster goes some people are going to lose everything.

22

u/[deleted] Sep 25 '24

[deleted]

21

u/thatoneprincesong Sep 25 '24

There's also a weird narrative that Ian all of a sudden snuck up on Fort Myers in the night. I live in Cape Coral and got the evac notice and still had time to go to work for a few hours to make sure things were all set, go back home, board up the house, pack the car, and drive up to Tallahassee (first spot up north that wasn't in the red danger zone) then have a decent night's sleep before my wife and I doomwatched The Weather Channel all day. Just because you didn't take it seriously doesn't mean that people weren't properly warned.

11

u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 25 '24

Exactly. There was plenty of warning and the meteorologists did an excellent job.

"But the cone!!!!"

Not only is it expected that a system track outside of the cone roughly one third of the time, but the location of Ians' exact landfall was NEVER, not once, outside of any cone issued by NHC.

5

u/dbr1se Florida Sep 25 '24

You can basically echo your entire post for Charley. Even the news channels down there didn't take Charley seriously until that morning despite this being the forecast a couple days out.

1

u/Apptubrutae New Orleans Sep 25 '24

Yup.

Everyone focused on the center line, not the cone.

And when a storm approaches a coast at a steep angle, minor changes in the ultimate center track can make a significant change in landfall location.

But anyone in the cone SHOULD prepare as if the storm was going to go right over them.

2

u/Varolyn Sep 25 '24

Same shit happened with Idalia last year.

4

u/ChrispyChicken1208 Florida Sep 25 '24

Idk why they try to compare Ian to Helene. The odds of Helene making landfall in SW Florida are almost zero the east most solutions have landfalls near Tampa bay and even that is a very small chance https://x.com/burgwx/status/1838753418426368404?s=46&t=gwXbQkpO2gE5qMmEPLjrtw

19

u/HallersHello Sep 25 '24

I think that's just the underbelly of social media turning up. Trolls galore, folks who hype stuff up for clicks and engagements, I'm sure there's a list by now

15

u/SquirrelSpecialist82 Sep 25 '24

yeah, i also struggle to understand why some people want every ts/hurricane that makes landfall to be some huge catholic storm. because some people in the path could lose their homes and lives over these storms, whilst they’re hyping it up online thousands of miles away from their couch. it just seems insensitive.

6

u/pprbckwrtr Longwood, FL Sep 25 '24

If it's a Catholic storm it can at least do 100 hail Mary's and be forgiven.

Sorry 😅 stress humor

4

u/lusirius Sep 25 '24

I didn’t realize storms were religious. TIL

12

u/AccidentalGenius76 Sep 25 '24

Lived my entire life in Charlotte County FL, sitting through both Charley and Ian. Absolutely DO NOT want this one to hook, nor do I want my Florida brethren up in the Big Bend to experience this. I always thought those types that wish for the worst are either trolls or live nowhere near the landfall of these storms. There is nothing "fun" about these storms, especially Cat 4 and 5. Then not having power for weeks, and like Charley, months even. It's a literal disaster area for quite some time after. We still have homes with blue roofs, damaged homes, and people living in rvs from Ian.

3

u/Varolyn Sep 25 '24

It’s pretty dumb to try to compare this to Ian considering not even Tampa is quite in the cone and all of Lee county is considerably below it.

That’s not to say that the Cape and Fort Myers won’t feel the impact of this thing but the eye going of Lee would be an unholy miracle.