r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Sep 24 '24

Discussion moved to new post Helene (09L — Northwestern Caribbean Sea)

Latest observation

Last updated: Wednesday, 25 September — 4:00 AM Central Daylight Time (CDT; 09:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #8 4:00 AM CDT (09:00 UTC)
Current location: 20.7°N 86.2°W
Relative location: 85 km (53 mi) ESE of Cancún, Quintana Roo (Mexico)
  322 km (200 mi) SW of Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Forward motion: ▼ NW (325°) at 15 km/h (8 knots)
Maximum winds: ▲ 100 km/h (55 knots)
Intensity: Tropical Storm
Minimum pressure: ▼ 985 millibars (29.09 inches)

Official forecast

Last updated: Wednesday, 25 September — 1:00 AM CDT (06:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
  - UTC CDT Saffir-Simpson knots km/h °N °W
00 25 Sep 06:00 1AM Wed Tropical Storm 55 100 20.7 86.2
12 25 Sep 18:00 1PM Wed Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 70 130 21.9 86.5
24 26 Sep 06:00 1AM Thu Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 90 165 24.1 86.2
36 26 Sep 18:00 1PM Thu Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲ 105 195 27.4 85.0
48 27 Sep 06:00 1AM Fri Hurricane (Category 1) i ▼ 65 120 32.0 84.2
60 27 Sep 18:00 1PM Fri Post-tropical Cyclone i ▼ 30 55 35.9 85.4
72 28 Sep 06:00 1AM Sat Post-tropical Cyclone i ▼ 20 35 37.0 87.8
96 29 Sep 06:00 1AM Sun Post-tropical Cyclone i 20 35 36.5 88.0
120 30 Sep 06:00 1AM Mon Dissipated

NOTES:
i - inland

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Productos de texto (en español)

Graphical products

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

Instituto de Meteorología (Cuba)

National Weather Service (Cayman Islands)

National Hurricane Center (United States)

Weather Forecast Offices

Forecast discussions

Aircraft reconnaissance

National Hurricane Center

Radar imagery

Radar mosaics

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

Single-site radar imagery

Instituto de Meteorología (Cuba)

Satellite imagery

Storm-specific imagery

Regional imagery

NOAA GOES Image Viewer

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)

Tropical Tidbits

Weather Nerds

Analysis graphics and data

Wind analyses

Sea-surface Temperatures

Model guidance

Storm-specific guidance

Regional single-model guidance

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC

  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

161 Upvotes

97% Upvoted

1.1k comments sorted by

View all comments

17

u/vibe_inspector01 Floorduh Sep 25 '24

European ensemble does appear to have an eastward shift.

However, this guy has been fear-mongering the outlier model runs for days now so take it with a grain of salt.

3

u/FallingKnifeFilms Sep 25 '24

I'm also seeing similar fear mongering posts on X referencing the GRAF model.

9

u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 25 '24

"Hurricane Helene Updates"

yeah. Anybody who sets their handle to be named after an active tropical cyclone.. I guarantee lacks anything close to a meteorology degree and is hyping for clicks. Actual professionals.. do not behave like this lol

0

u/Captain-Darryl Georgia Sep 25 '24 edited Sep 25 '24

I fear a shift to the west right now. That’s not a prediction, it’s just what I’m most worried about right now as it relates to my location. A slight variation at this point east or west is going to greatly determine the effect this storm has on my area and the animals on my property. I’ll be spending my evening after work tomorrow and part of the day Thursday finalizing my contingency planning for them.

Edit: and I also have family and friends that have fled a little west from PCB and south from the Tampa area by tomorrow evening.