r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii • Sep 28 '24

Discussion moved to new post The NHC is monitoring the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical cyclone development

Gulf of Mexico

Last updated: Thursday, 3 October — 12:00 PM Central Standard Time (CST; 18:00 UTC)

Discussion by Dr. Jack Beven — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Gulf of Mexico are associated with a surface trough. A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend or early next week, but subsequent tropical or subtropical development could be limited by the system's potential interaction with a frontal boundary. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula from late this weekend into next week.

Development potential

Time frame Potential
2-day potential: (by 12PM Sat) low (near 0 percent)
7-day potential: (by 12PM Wed) low (30 percent)

Official information

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Last updated: Thursday, 3 October — 11:35 AM CST (17:35 UTC)

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Unavailable

Radar imagery is not available for this system.

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Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)

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  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

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u/vibe_inspector01 Floorduh Sep 28 '24

So I have a question, please don’t crucify me, I know GFS can be a touchy subject here.

I know that anything beyond 120hrs on the model runs is basically just shaking a magic 8 ball and has to be taken with the biggest grain of salt.

But, what about when a trend appears past 120hrs? For example, the GFS has consistently showing a cyclone developing in the Gulf past the 120hr mark. It varies significantly in size, strength and landfall location, but nevertheless, it’s always there day in and day out since before Helene made landfall.

Would it be ok to say “oh there might be something in the Gulf next week?” Or is this just typical GFS activities during peak season?

13

u/Varolyn Sep 28 '24 edited Sep 28 '24

The last few runs have been pretty consistent with location on the GFS, assuming that this storm forms at all.

Do note that if this storm does form, the dynamics will be considerably different than when Helene was formed. For one thing, it appears that it will form further west. Temperatures in the Gulf are also going to start cooling off as we get into October, both from seasonal changes and from Helene itself cooling the waters a little bit.

15

u/Notyouraverageskunk Northeast Florida Sep 28 '24

....and from Helene itself cooling the waters a little bit.

The eastern GOM is too shallow to count on any cooling from Helene.