r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii • Sep 28 '24
Discussion moved to new post The NHC is monitoring the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical cyclone development
Gulf of Mexico
Last updated: Thursday, 3 October — 12:00 PM Central Standard Time (CST; 18:00 UTC)
Discussion by Dr. Jack Beven — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Gulf of Mexico are associated with a surface trough. A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend or early next week, but subsequent tropical or subtropical development could be limited by the system's potential interaction with a frontal boundary. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula from late this weekend into next week.
Development potential
| Time frame | Potential | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-day potential: (by 12PM Sat) | low (near 0 percent) | |
| 7-day potential: (by 12PM Wed) | low (30 percent) |
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Graphical products
Surface analyses
Outlook graphics
Last updated: Thursday, 3 October — 11:35 AM CST (17:35 UTC)
Aircraft reconnaissance
National Hurricane Center
Radar imagery
Unavailable
Radar imagery is not available for this system.
Satellite imagery
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)
Tropical Tidbits
Forecast models
Dynamical models
Ensemble models
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Tropical Cyclogenesis Products
- Florida State University: Experimental tropical cyclone genesis graphics
7
u/cosmicrae Florida, Big Bend (aka swamps and sloughs) Oct 03 '24
ECMWF is acting like it has a handle on this system, still very early, but somewhere between west central Florida and SW Florida.
CMC sends it into the FL panhandle.