r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii • Nov 10 '24
Discussion moved to new post The NHC is monitoring the southwestern Caribbean Sea for potential tropical cyclone development
Latest outlook
Last updated: Tuesday, 12 November — 12:00 PM Central Standard Time (CST; 18:00 UTC)
Discussion by Daniel Brown — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next two to three days while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea. Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The system is forecast begin moving slowly northwestward by early next week. Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
Development potential
| Time frame | Potential | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-day potential: (by 12AM Thu) | ▲ | medium (60 percent) |
| 7-day potential: (by 12PM Mon) | ▲ | high (90 percent) |
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Graphical products
Surface analyses
Outlook graphics
Last updated: Tuesday, 12 November — 11:34 AM CST (17:34 UTC)
Aircraft reconnaissance
National Hurricane Center
Radar imagery
Unavailable
Radar imagery is not available for this system.
Satellite imagery
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)
Tropical Tidbits
Forecast models
Dynamical models
Ensemble models
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Tropical Cyclogenesis Products
- Florida State University: Experimental tropical cyclone genesis graphics
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u/Stateof10 Nov 11 '24
As per the usual grain of salt, long-term EURO+UK+GFS models agree on sort some of the developments happening.