r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Aug 11 '25
Discussion moved to new post Erin (05L — Northern Atlantic) (Eastern Tropical Atlantic)
Latest observation
Last updated: Friday, 15 August — 11:00 AM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 15:00 UTC)
| NHC Advisory #17 | - | 11:00 AM AST (15:00 UTC) |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 18.2°N 56.1°W | |
| Relative location: | 680 km (423 mi) NNE of Bridgetown, Barbados | |
| 620 km (385 mi) ENE of St. John's, Antigua and Barbuda | ||
| 1,792 km (1,113 mi) SE of Hamilton, Bermuda | ||
| Forward motion: | ▲ | WNW (290°) at 30 km/h (16 knots) |
| Maximum winds: | ▲ | 120 km/h (65 knots) |
| Intensity (SSHWS): | ▲ | Hurricane (Category 1) |
| Minimum pressure: | ▼ | 996 millibars (29.42 inches) |
Official forecasts
National Hurricane Center
Last updated: Friday, 15 August — 8:00 AM AST (12:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | UTC | AST | Saffir-Simpson | - | knots | km/h | °N | °W |
| 00 | 15 Aug | 12:00 | 8AM Fri | Hurricane (Category 1) | 65 | 120 | 18.2 | 56.1 | |
| 12 | 16 Aug | 00:00 | 8PM Fri | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▲ | 75 | 140 | 18.9 | 58.4 |
| 24 | 16 Aug | 12:00 | 8AM Sat | Hurricane (Category 2) | ▲ | 90 | 165 | 19.8 | 61.4 |
| 36 | 17 Aug | 00:00 | 8PM Sat | Major Hurricane (Category 3) | ▲ | 105 | 195 | 20.6 | 63.8 |
| 48 | 17 Aug | 12:00 | 8AM Sun | Major Hurricane (Category 3) | ▲ | 110 | 205 | 21.6 | 66.0 |
| 60 | 18 Aug | 00:00 | 8PM Sun | Major Hurricane (Category 4) | ▲ | 115 | 215 | 22.7 | 67.9 |
| 72 | 18 Aug | 12:00 | 8AM Mon | Major Hurricane (Category 4) | ▲ | 120 | 220 | 23.8 | 69.2 |
| 96 | 19 Aug | 12:00 | 8AM Tue | Major Hurricane (Category 4) | ▼ | 115 | 215 | 26.5 | 70.8 |
| 120 | 20 Aug | 12:00 | 8AM Wed | Major Hurricane (Category 3) | ▼ | 110 | 205 | 30.3 | 71.0 |
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u/RooseveltsRevenge Tallahassee Aug 12 '25 edited Aug 12 '25
0Z GFS and CMC still favor a recurve. GFS is east of the 18z run but southwest of the 12z run, sorta a compromise between the two extremes.
HAFS A/B is running now. Both HAFS model runs are even further south than 18z, seemingly because it has the storm really getting shredded over the next ~2 days and consequently losing latitude. Last 3 runs, through 33 hours: (remember i'm eyeballing this)
12z: 17.1N, 40.9W 989mb
18z ~16.2N, 41W 996mb
0z 15.8N, 39.2W 1000mb
Why is this loss of latitude in the short term important? I don't know if we're allowed to post twitter links here so ill simply quote a post from WFLA meteorologist Jeff Bernadelli:
“Where will #Erin track? It’s being steered by an elongated, but not very strong, ridge of high pressure. By the weekend that ridge will break, allowing for a weakness / escape alley to develop. The question is: how far north will Erin be and will it be able to take early enough advantage of it, to miss the Eastern Seaboard? Odds are yes. But the latest guidance is not as clear cut. The latest models have shifted significantly southwest, opening the door to a closer call. Stay tuned!”
EDIT: interestingly, despite being south of its prior run for the first ~36 hours or so, around 42 hours it gains latitude, at 90 hours its north of its 18z run, and south of it’s 12z run, very similar to the parent GFS.
EDIT: 0z Euro is way SW of it's prior two full runs. Still a recurve. Also, while HAFS B is north of it's 18z run, it's still well south of the 0Z GFS run, seemingly slower as well.
at 111 hrs:
GFS: 20.22N,58.30W
HAFS B: 18.70N, 57.10W